Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2022 Season Totals
Through 2023-01-10
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Logistic Regression | 0.64756 | 0.53623 | 14.2849 | -0.8567 | 362.924 | 349 | 226 | 123 | 185 | 160 |
2 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66225 | 0.53512 | 14.3719 | 1.5603 | 327.602 | 302 | 200 | 102 | 160 | 139 |
3 | Massey Ratings | 0.69716 | 0.53194 | 12.4786 | -0.0418 | 251.724 | 776 | 541 | 235 | 408 | 359 |
4 | Keeper | 0.69548 | 0.52480 | 13.1567 | 1.6739 | 279.270 | 775 | 539 | 236 | 402 | 364 |
5 | Talisman Red | 0.69201 | 0.52344 | 12.9252 | 0.2529 | 271.807 | 776 | 537 | 239 | 402 | 366 |
6 | Donchess Inference | 0.70103 | 0.52185 | 12.4516 | 0.4972 | 250.995 | 776 | 544 | 232 | 394 | 361 |
7 | Laz Index | 0.68863 | 0.51895 | 12.8401 | 0.4397 | 263.631 | 774 | 533 | 241 | 397 | 368 |
8 | Loudsound.org | 0.66435 | 0.51679 | 13.9540 | -3.3022 | 309.256 | 718 | 477 | 241 | 354 | 331 |
9 | Waywardtrends | 0.68428 | 0.51108 | 12.7776 | 0.8167 | 264.981 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 392 | 375 |
10 | David Harville | 0.69459 | 0.50914 | 12.4966 | 0.0855 | 253.125 | 776 | 539 | 237 | 390 | 376 |
11 | System Median | 0.69330 | 0.50859 | 12.3608 | 0.5109 | 246.750 | 776 | 538 | 238 | 385 | 372 |
12 | Line (opening) | 0.70619 | 0.50779 | 12.0805 | 0.6617 | 236.294 | 776 | 548 | 228 | 326 | 316 |
13 | Dave Congrove | 0.68428 | 0.50717 | 12.9343 | 0.9805 | 267.934 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 389 | 378 |
14 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.68041 | 0.50651 | 12.5151 | -0.0336 | 253.531 | 776 | 528 | 248 | 389 | 379 |
15 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.70747 | 0.50651 | 12.4622 | -0.1380 | 249.689 | 776 | 549 | 227 | 389 | 379 |
16 | ESPN FPI | 0.70351 | 0.50526 | 12.2733 | 0.9943 | 244.335 | 769 | 541 | 228 | 384 | 376 |
17 | Sagarin Points | 0.68943 | 0.50392 | 12.5489 | -0.1454 | 253.307 | 776 | 535 | 241 | 386 | 380 |
18 | Roundtable | 0.68340 | 0.50298 | 13.0444 | 0.5502 | 279.380 | 518 | 354 | 164 | 253 | 250 |
19 | Billingsley | 0.66452 | 0.50261 | 13.4379 | 0.1611 | 292.406 | 775 | 515 | 260 | 385 | 381 |
20 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68564 | 0.50065 | 13.1672 | 0.7610 | 280.958 | 773 | 530 | 243 | 383 | 382 |
21 | System Average | 0.68814 | 0.49935 | 12.4338 | 0.5424 | 248.770 | 776 | 534 | 242 | 383 | 384 |
22 | Dunkel Index | 0.69648 | 0.49631 | 13.0713 | 1.2361 | 279.665 | 682 | 475 | 207 | 336 | 341 |
23 | Linear Regression | 0.68481 | 0.49565 | 12.8546 | 1.3205 | 278.097 | 349 | 239 | 110 | 171 | 174 |
24 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.68814 | 0.49479 | 12.8681 | 0.2151 | 267.004 | 776 | 534 | 242 | 380 | 388 |
25 | FEI Projections | 0.67572 | 0.49433 | 12.6622 | -1.6793 | 261.959 | 626 | 423 | 203 | 305 | 312 |
26 | Line (updated) | 0.71521 | 0.49280 | 12.0651 | 0.6012 | 233.847 | 776 | 555 | 221 | 171 | 176 |
27 | Stat Fox | 0.69010 | 0.49252 | 12.7449 | 2.0602 | 262.238 | 768 | 530 | 238 | 362 | 373 |
28 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.71134 | 0.49211 | 12.4384 | 1.0485 | 251.072 | 776 | 552 | 224 | 374 | 386 |
29 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.71134 | 0.49208 | 12.3640 | 0.9370 | 246.959 | 776 | 552 | 224 | 373 | 385 |
30 | Sagarin Recent | 0.69974 | 0.49153 | 12.6528 | -0.0329 | 257.407 | 776 | 543 | 233 | 377 | 390 |
31 | Dokter Entropy | 0.70361 | 0.49086 | 12.2791 | 1.0174 | 243.062 | 776 | 546 | 230 | 376 | 390 |
32 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.70232 | 0.49020 | 12.4605 | 1.0799 | 251.311 | 776 | 545 | 231 | 375 | 390 |
33 | Pigskin Index | 0.70232 | 0.48971 | 12.5657 | 1.0377 | 255.484 | 776 | 545 | 231 | 357 | 372 |
34 | Payne W/L | 0.65851 | 0.48956 | 13.5289 | -0.2410 | 295.208 | 776 | 511 | 265 | 375 | 391 |
35 | DP Dwiggins | 0.69290 | 0.48656 | 13.2723 | -0.9342 | 283.183 | 775 | 537 | 238 | 362 | 382 |
36 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.66624 | 0.48568 | 14.0026 | 0.9886 | 310.134 | 776 | 517 | 259 | 373 | 395 |
37 | Edward Kambour | 0.68863 | 0.48564 | 12.6617 | 0.5814 | 259.395 | 774 | 533 | 241 | 372 | 394 |
38 | Stephen Kerns | 0.69072 | 0.48429 | 13.8967 | 0.7545 | 312.164 | 776 | 536 | 240 | 370 | 394 |
39 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.68000 | 0.48172 | 13.1106 | -0.0252 | 276.591 | 775 | 527 | 248 | 369 | 397 |
40 | Bihl System | 0.67317 | 0.48157 | 12.8694 | 0.7020 | 271.105 | 410 | 276 | 134 | 196 | 211 |
41 | Laffaye RWP | 0.68283 | 0.48039 | 13.5330 | -0.0155 | 291.424 | 722 | 493 | 229 | 343 | 371 |
42 | Beck Elo | 0.67784 | 0.48037 | 13.1371 | 0.8316 | 277.478 | 776 | 526 | 250 | 367 | 397 |
43 | Born Power Index | 0.69459 | 0.47917 | 13.0384 | 1.2843 | 276.156 | 776 | 539 | 237 | 368 | 400 |
44 | TeamRankings.com | 0.70361 | 0.47895 | 12.3957 | 0.2530 | 249.400 | 776 | 546 | 230 | 364 | 396 |
45 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.67526 | 0.47891 | 13.0938 | -0.0512 | 276.669 | 776 | 524 | 252 | 352 | 383 |
46 | Howell | 0.67655 | 0.47684 | 13.4124 | 0.2463 | 294.056 | 776 | 525 | 251 | 350 | 384 |
47 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.69728 | 0.47582 | 12.7339 | 0.7699 | 262.842 | 773 | 539 | 234 | 364 | 401 |
48 | Payne Predict | 0.68428 | 0.47320 | 13.1513 | 0.7929 | 278.935 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 362 | 403 |
49 | Massey Consensus | 0.68170 | 0.47005 | 13.0411 | 1.4341 | 279.200 | 776 | 529 | 247 | 361 | 407 |
50 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.64820 | 0.46996 | 14.0045 | 0.5626 | 310.485 | 776 | 503 | 273 | 352 | 397 |
51 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.71392 | 0.46903 | 12.0921 | 0.5844 | 234.884 | 776 | 554 | 222 | 212 | 240 |
52 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.67784 | 0.46143 | 13.2668 | 1.9858 | 281.530 | 776 | 526 | 250 | 341 | 398 |
53 | Brent Craig | 0.70330 | 0.45492 | 12.6782 | 1.2032 | 256.102 | 728 | 512 | 216 | 328 | 393 |
54 | Line (Midweek) | 0.72036 | | 12.0599 | 0.5664 | 234.538 | 776 | 559 | 217 | | |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases