Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Season Totals

Through 2022-10-02
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (updated)0.756550.5537211.88580.3464217.145267202656754
2Roundtable0.675210.5398213.7350-0.3846300.23011779386152
3Keeper0.730340.5285213.44321.6159280.96826719572139124
4Line (opening)0.752810.5068511.91010.4120219.77526720166111108
5Donchess Inference0.741570.5058812.8473-0.6164256.13726719869129126
6Talisman Red0.704120.4981013.37090.2531276.21826718879131132
7Loudsound.org0.650000.4980415.7808-5.8423367.78026016991127128
8Payne Predict0.734080.4961813.01130.3341261.13726719671130132
9Sagarin Golden Mean0.696630.4943012.8772-0.9531251.34226718681130133
10David Harville0.722850.4943012.8103-0.8162248.37726719374130133
11Massey Ratings0.726590.4885512.8297-1.0170247.50026719473128134
12Sagarin Points0.726590.4885512.7727-0.9517250.89826719473128134
13ESPN FPI0.746150.4882812.25020.0871229.14926019466125131
14Payne Power Ratings0.730340.4866912.8734-1.0277247.99126719572128135
15Laz Index0.689140.4866913.4989-0.8311273.50326718483128135
16Daniel Curry Index0.685390.4866913.66921.1007290.64226718384128135
17Sagarin Ratings0.737830.4866912.7473-0.8817246.22226719770128135
18Dave Congrove0.696630.4828913.55810.4703272.01226718681127136
19System Average0.696630.4828912.7216-0.1537242.24626718681127136
20Beck Elo0.700370.4828913.6203-0.2753277.81726718780127136
21DP Dwiggins0.719100.4824913.6854-1.1910290.57126719275124133
22PI-Rate Bias0.726590.4809212.64871.0322242.28526719473126136
23Billingsley0.657890.4789314.6562-1.7040326.35726617591125136
24System Median0.707870.4769212.6022-0.1018239.30526718978124136
25TeamRankings.com0.730340.4730812.4423-0.3494238.94526719572123137
26Laffaye RWP0.679250.4674314.6920-2.2477318.75426518085122139
27Moore Power Ratings0.710530.4618313.6852-1.2196290.61626618977121141
28Dokter Entropy0.730340.4618312.33230.5712230.66926719572121141
29Pi-Ratings Mean0.726590.4618312.68200.6611239.34026719473121141
30Born Power Index0.719100.4600813.40241.7414280.69626719275121142
31Pigskin Index0.722850.4581712.65541.2549242.31126719374115136
32Sagarin Recent0.741570.4580212.9830-0.3464259.36526719869120142
33Pi-Rate Ratings0.734080.4559412.79180.9805244.59526719671119142
34Versus Sports Simulator0.747170.4559412.67290.8436246.95726519867119142
35Payne W/L0.677900.4542014.1704-2.1832302.06326718186119143
36Dunkel Index0.722220.4525113.69371.5157291.727180130508198
37PerformanZ Ratings0.685390.4524714.2922-0.3967307.67926718384119144
38ARGH Power Ratings0.707870.4509813.7622-1.8727287.45626718978115140
39Stat Fox0.702700.4475812.90741.7107249.93125918277111137
40Computer Adjusted Line0.756550.4430411.96820.2753218.521267202657088
41Waywardtrends0.715360.4410613.5312-0.1665276.39926719176116147
42Howell0.681650.4370114.1160-1.6927309.11726718285111143
43Catherwood Ratings0.685390.4307713.94761.8951293.08026718384112148
44Cleanup Hitter0.677900.4280215.1179-0.3501342.27626718186110147
45Edward Kambour0.694340.4252913.23660.3469270.84126518481111150
46Stephen Kerns0.707870.4198516.1710-0.0122394.84526718978110152
47Massey Consensus0.700370.4144513.10251.1420265.43926718780109154
48Brent Craig0.723080.4023412.69270.5180241.50226018872103153
49FEI Projections0.666670.3913013.2479-2.2049275.59111778394570
50Line (Midweek)0.7677911.91010.3109218.36726720562
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases