Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-09-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Pigskin Index0.739580.5814013.19801.4066246.0779671255036
2Line (updated)0.750000.5400012.5573-0.0365237.8109672242723
3Pi-Ratings Mean0.781250.5368413.28440.5115255.2179675215144
4Pi-Rate Ratings0.770830.5212813.39370.6040264.2779674224945
5ESPN FPI0.718750.5157912.78590.0916243.3909669274946
6PI-Rate Bias0.791670.5106413.23341.0520258.1129676204846
7DP Dwiggins0.687500.5053816.2917-3.4583393.9179666304746
8ThePowerRank.com0.500000.5000016.7000-16.7000141.40521111
9Edward Kambour0.791670.4947413.8525-0.0662279.2219676204748
10Massey Ratings0.729170.4947414.1204-2.1646306.0819670264748
11Super List0.729170.4947416.44521.6831379.0219670264748
12Stephen Kerns0.687500.4947414.4446-0.8552315.4859666304748
13Beck Elo0.750000.4947414.2828-0.9420309.3489672244748
14TeamRankings.com0.750000.4947412.80320.6136249.4319672244748
15Line (opening)0.739580.4942512.5885-0.9323242.9529671254344
16Computer Adjusted Line0.750000.4920612.6250-0.1146239.4959672243132
17Talisman Red0.800000.4888912.3940-0.9864224.624453692223
18FEI Projections0.625000.4842118.4643-7.6926526.7339660364649
19Catherwood Ratings0.760420.4835214.10420.7083281.0369673234447
20Born Power Index0.760420.4736814.37811.2844303.0559673234550
21ARGH Power Ratings0.750000.4680914.8490-3.0990322.5119672244450
22Dave Congrove0.687500.4631614.95350.2154322.4169666304451
23Keeper0.739130.4615413.76991.8686277.5399268244249
24PerformanZ Ratings0.708330.4526315.1511-2.7349345.3389668284352
25Versus Sports Simulator0.765960.4516112.87831.2391238.9729472224251
26Howell0.687500.4468115.1096-4.2862354.0389666304252
27Sagarin Points0.666670.4421114.3433-1.2150306.5839664324253
28Loudsound.org0.489580.4421117.8958-6.5417502.0339647494253
29David Harville0.750000.4421113.5959-0.9784266.1649672244253
30Laffaye RWP0.739580.4347814.4750-2.6713322.4089671254052
31Dokter Entropy0.739580.4315813.8886-1.3301267.1229671254154
32Daniel Curry Index0.697920.4315816.6061-4.3930448.6109667294154
33Payne Power Ratings0.760420.4315813.5858-0.9227274.9289673234154
34Stat Fox0.739580.4239113.96890.6564294.5369671253953
35Laz Index0.781250.4210513.5121-0.3708267.0219675214055
36Payne Predict0.739580.4210513.2874-0.2009263.2939671254055
37Sagarin Golden Mean0.656250.4210516.1992-0.3546434.3509663334055
38Cleanup Hitter0.708330.4193515.1563-0.6146374.9659668283954
39Payne W/L0.791670.4105315.8964-4.2559379.2129676203956
40Billingsley0.739580.4105315.6042-3.2365367.6789671253956
41Sagarin Recent0.666670.4105316.2041-0.7857432.1139664323956
42Sagarin Ratings0.666670.4105314.4100-1.0527306.9659664323956
43System Median0.750000.4105313.3006-0.7981257.1629672243956
44Massey Consensus0.739580.4105314.11790.0931294.6589671253956
45System Average0.760420.3894713.4580-1.0547263.5759673233758
46Moore Power Ratings0.729170.3894714.1057-2.1070294.4999670263758
47Dunkel Index0.666670.3888917.78223.9300415.30118126711
48Donchess Inference0.750000.3655914.5292-2.4500296.1519672243459
49Line (Midweek)0.7708312.5417-0.1458235.859967422
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases