Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2020 Season Totals

Through 2021-01-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.715630.5483213.46371.7057291.007531380151278229
2Pi-Ratings Mean0.707870.5383113.03310.6440264.111534378156281241
3Pi-Rate Ratings0.715360.5374313.12040.7209267.578534382152280241
4PerformanZ Ratings0.711610.5276213.78061.9755301.128534380154277248
5Donchess Inference0.745140.5260013.02331.6455268.716514383131263237
6Loudsound.org0.659620.5252715.5285-2.2896386.431473312161239216
7Massey Consensus0.718050.5209913.49671.9934289.927532382150273251
8Dokter Entropy0.731570.5202313.00521.6897269.282529387142270249
9Dave Congrove0.675420.5200014.47251.5965326.822533360173273252
10ThePowerRank.com0.700000.5196113.3985-0.1203279.543520364156265245
11PI-Rate Bias0.717230.5193113.11230.7731266.643534383151269249
12Stephen Kerns0.746400.5177513.16401.7512281.06334725988175163
13David Harville0.728460.5171113.21281.5338276.121534389145272254
14TeamRankings.com0.731710.5165713.00771.3342264.054533390143265248
15Howell0.690980.5150913.50951.0740286.436521360161256241
16Stat Fox0.704120.5147313.83713.0321300.028534376158262247
17Computer Adjusted Line0.719100.5146212.88010.9007255.565534384150176166
18Talisman Red0.712420.5133313.98400.7883304.77730621888154146
19ESPN FPI0.734960.5124313.00501.1647262.246532391141268255
20FEI Projections0.726080.5115413.28661.6914281.170533387146266254
21Versus Sports Simulator0.722220.5009713.30901.6531278.888522377145257256
22Massey Ratings0.706440.5000013.64630.8526294.858528373155260260
23Catherwood Ratings0.709740.4990313.91203.0805305.400534379155256257
24Laz Index0.689140.4981013.66361.8644290.701534368166262264
25System Median0.730340.4952013.04381.3908267.524534390144258263
26Line (updated)0.715360.4940712.89510.8127256.044534382152125128
27Moore Power Ratings0.695490.4914013.84411.2791293.824532370162257266
28Dunkel Index0.731900.4910513.63232.2680287.564511374137247256
29Keeper0.732530.4908413.54250.9936282.388501367134241250
30Sagarin Recent0.713480.4904914.12440.7035308.036534381153258268
31Cleanup Hitter0.685010.4901614.58731.1965333.430527361166249259
32Born Power Index0.726590.4885913.81042.3545302.635534388146257269
33Sagarin Points0.711610.4885913.79950.6217299.101534380154257269
34Sagarin Golden Mean0.705990.4857113.74590.5010294.907534377157255270
35Beck Elo0.713480.4847913.74342.3591294.619534381153255271
36System Average0.722850.4847913.07491.4282268.413534386148255271
37Edward Kambour0.694760.4847913.80631.3969296.234534371163255271
38Super List0.699250.4828214.71082.0506331.095532372160253271
39Roundtable0.708680.4825614.60501.7983357.728357253104166178
40Line (opening)0.691010.4825313.45511.2809282.935534369165221237
41Sagarin Ratings0.719100.4800013.75090.6033294.669534384150252273
42Daniel Curry Index0.704060.4774114.78301.4754356.645517364153243266
43Laffaye RWP0.520000.4000016.0400-0.4800335.4322513121015
44Line (Midweek)0.7191012.90170.9448257.308534384150
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases