Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2017 Season Totals

Through 2018-01-09
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Sagarin Ratings0.721790.5348212.6038-0.2247257.640780563217407354
2Logistic Regression0.666670.5346814.6741-4.0584359.438357238119185161
3The Sports Cruncher0.737880.5319712.4591-0.3964255.997763563200391344
4Computer Adjusted Line0.734620.5318812.28780.1699246.636780573207292257
5Linear Regression0.694680.5317912.7521-1.6586267.431357248109184162
6Line (updated)0.735900.5307712.27500.1763246.617780574206276244
7Sagarin Points0.729490.5243112.5081-0.2262253.335780569211399362
8Payne Power Ratings0.714100.5236813.3639-1.2571289.047780557223398362
9Liam Bressler0.712980.5164412.86772.0164266.247763544219377353
10Born Power Index0.725640.5164312.97390.5393277.497780566214393368
11TeamRankings.com0.735900.5145512.61870.8390253.192780574206389367
12Sagarin Golden Mean0.724360.5125212.7176-0.1869262.586780565215389370
13ESPN FPI0.730770.5124812.41950.7077248.996780570210390371
14Dave Congrove0.726920.5124813.5219-0.0885296.489780567213390371
15Line (opening)0.715380.5119212.40510.4526249.827780558222322307
16PerformanZ Ratings0.702560.5111713.95990.1603313.924780548232389372
17Bihl System0.701490.5109613.1642-0.4077283.271469329140233223
18Loudsound.org0.687170.5102914.2592-3.8246328.546764525239372357
19Sagarin Recent0.712820.5092113.1485-0.1220277.826780556224387373
20FEI Projections0.707820.5087713.4938-0.0617283.28824317271116112
21ComPughter Ratings0.734460.5079812.9387-0.0584270.568772567205382370
22Pi-Rate Ratings0.720510.5078912.83030.7428266.536780562218386374
23Stephen Kerns0.720050.5060413.65600.8164305.812768553215377368
24Lee Burdorf0.717780.5046613.39610.3271291.637776557219379372
25Keeper0.739740.5046013.33530.4100289.443780577203384377
26PI-Rate Bias0.721790.5039812.80110.6465264.341780563217380374
27Pi-Ratings Mean0.734620.5026512.76520.5531262.567780573207379375
28Dokter Entropy0.729490.5000012.49160.5629253.181780569211380380
29ARGH Power Ratings0.729140.4993213.2166-0.3630281.017779568211365366
30Ashby AccuRatings0.742310.4993112.66400.4310259.612780579201362363
31Moore Power Ratings0.708230.4986813.20720.1592277.833778551227378380
32ThePowerRank.com0.733930.4973313.1130-0.0276276.542778571207372376
33Atomic Football0.741980.4965612.6431-0.3350257.811779578201361366
34Super List0.670510.4960514.92740.4521355.552780523257377383
35Donchess Inference0.723650.4960412.8079-0.2873264.827778563215376382
36Edward Kambour0.728220.4920013.1962-0.2558279.715769560209369381
37Pigskin Index0.723080.4910812.83970.4016266.915780564216358371
38Massey Ratings0.725640.4901413.3692-0.8905283.711780566214373388
39DP Dwiggins0.717220.4898513.40360.0360286.578778558220362377
40Catherwood Ratings0.716670.4896813.28081.0987281.307780559221356371
41Roundtable0.703210.4889313.3062-0.8677290.518529372157243254
42Least Squares w/ HFA0.655460.4884415.4850-1.1590388.671357234123169177
43System Average0.732050.4881612.63460.1971258.260780571209371389
44Daniel Curry Index0.708600.4881613.57590.8275299.339779552227371389
45System Median0.728210.4873212.63970.1919258.399780568212365384
46Massey Consensus0.669230.4862015.09570.8758353.202780522258370391
47Beck Elo0.697440.4835713.76940.1230300.236780544236368393
48Marsee0.704370.4816313.97431.7866315.399778548230354381
49Billingsley+0.719230.4809513.75860.0206307.652780561219366395
50Cleanup Hitter0.683330.4805414.6051-0.0216340.375780533247358387
51Talisman Red0.713910.4804313.5057-0.7093291.081762544218356385
52Laz Index0.729490.4783212.9295-0.0183267.210780569211364397
53NutShell Sports0.691030.4779114.63600.2520341.971780539241357390
54Howell0.703850.4764513.5699-0.6108296.249780549231354389
55Billingsley0.707690.4750013.8282-0.2159307.356780552228361399
56Stat Fox0.715380.4741813.27441.4002279.755780558222349387
57Brent Craig0.727270.4711913.06090.3614272.355605440165278312
58Dunkel Index0.710600.4693613.98700.7832313.402736523213337381
59Laffaye RWP0.691030.4664914.2882-0.6331324.420780539241355406
60Brent Craig 20.682820.4524914.10691.6418303.50222715572100121
61Line (Midweek)0.7320512.31540.2987246.627780571209
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases