Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Last Week

Through 2023-01-10
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1DP Dwiggins0.571430.6578911.88100.0714267.7384224182513
2FEI Projections0.571430.5365912.20500.0764260.6994224182219
3Linear Regression0.619050.6097611.8124-0.1338267.9454226162516
4Edward Kambour0.666670.5365912.4590-0.1914272.2724228142219
5Versus Sports Simulator0.619050.6341511.9095-0.3662271.8624226162615
6PI-Rate Bias0.619050.6097612.2288-0.4093264.3254226162516
7PerformanZ Ratings0.595240.6097611.8736-0.4179242.4344225172516
8Dunkel Index0.690480.4878012.5607-0.4536280.5394229132021
9Talisman Red0.619050.6585411.7921-0.5493266.0594226162714
10Keeper0.634150.6500011.21660.5961220.6204126152614
11Pi-Ratings Mean0.642860.6341512.0810-0.6762266.6934227152615
12Howell0.571430.5128212.8571-0.7143271.7854224182019
13TeamRankings.com0.642860.6000011.5643-0.7357259.9514227152416
14Moore Power Ratings0.595240.5365912.5036-0.7512303.5544225172219
15Pi-Rate Ratings0.666670.5853712.2095-0.7714269.6184228142417
16Dokter Entropy0.547620.5365912.0024-0.7848271.7794223192219
17David Harville0.619050.5365911.8800-0.7919271.1924226162219
18Catherwood Ratings0.738100.5675712.0476-0.8095275.6994231112116
19Payne Predict0.619050.6097611.7355-0.8664283.3014226162516
20Born Power Index0.690480.5122012.6929-0.8786302.9624229132120
21Stephen Kerns0.642860.6097611.3655-0.8940246.7484227152516
22System Average0.619050.6585411.8624-0.9576263.3574226162714
23Laz Index0.571430.6097611.7760-0.9650264.5074224182516
24Sagarin Points0.571430.6341511.8288-0.9998264.1234224182615
25Pigskin Index0.690480.5789512.1193-1.0236270.2384229132216
26Daniel Curry Index0.731710.5250012.5902-1.0293275.9274130112119
27System Median0.619050.6341511.8533-1.0600263.5234226162615
28ARGH Power Ratings0.547620.4750012.4464-1.1250267.1534223191921
29Laffaye RWP0.547620.4390213.00691.1355284.4364223191823
30Line (updated)0.619050.6800012.0357-1.2024239.245422616178
31ESPN FPI0.595240.5365911.6314-1.2129264.2994225172219
32Computer Adjusted Line0.619050.6428612.0119-1.2262243.6134226161810
33Sagarin Ratings0.619050.6097611.8360-1.2274264.2614226162516
34Stat Fox0.690480.6000011.6669-1.2374272.5944229132416
35Waywardtrends0.690480.6341511.6438-1.2486259.1504229132615
36Sagarin Recent0.690480.6097611.8129-1.2805262.8144229132516
37Sagarin Golden Mean0.571430.5122012.2471-1.3338278.3354224182120
38Line (Midweek)0.6428612.1667-1.4524247.795422715
39Donchess Inference0.571430.5853712.0095-1.4857259.4304224182417
40Massey Ratings0.595240.5609812.4081-1.5595284.2974225172318
41Payne Power Ratings0.523810.5609812.4612-1.5850283.6724222202318
42Line (opening)0.595240.5714312.2857-1.6190270.6764225172015
43Beck Elo0.595240.4871812.2888-1.6202283.2154225171920
44Massey Consensus0.547620.4878012.7398-1.7383305.8984223192021
45Payne W/L0.523810.4390212.9883-1.9721301.7274222201823
46Cleanup Hitter0.500000.5365913.1786-2.3210319.1814221212219
47Dave Congrove0.619050.5853712.0848-2.3629282.6884226162417
48Logistic Regression0.500000.5122012.8690-2.3814312.1384221212120
49Billingsley0.500000.4878012.7510-2.4162292.7334221212021
50Least Squares w/ HFA0.595240.5122012.93402.8545278.3874225172120
51Brent Craig0.666670.6666722.3433-10.6167841.23832121
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases