ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Last Week

Through 2023-01-10

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	DP Dwiggins	0.57143	0.65789	11.8810	0.0714	267.738	42	24	18	25	13
2	FEI Projections	0.57143	0.53659	12.2050	0.0764	260.699	42	24	18	22	19
3	Linear Regression	0.61905	0.60976	11.8124	-0.1338	267.945	42	26	16	25	16
4	Edward Kambour	0.66667	0.53659	12.4590	-0.1914	272.272	42	28	14	22	19
5	Versus Sports Simulator	0.61905	0.63415	11.9095	-0.3662	271.862	42	26	16	26	15
6	PI-Rate Bias	0.61905	0.60976	12.2288	-0.4093	264.325	42	26	16	25	16
7	PerformanZ Ratings	0.59524	0.60976	11.8736	-0.4179	242.434	42	25	17	25	16
8	Dunkel Index	0.69048	0.48780	12.5607	-0.4536	280.539	42	29	13	20	21
9	Talisman Red	0.61905	0.65854	11.7921	-0.5493	266.059	42	26	16	27	14
10	Keeper	0.63415	0.65000	11.2166	0.5961	220.620	41	26	15	26	14
11	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.64286	0.63415	12.0810	-0.6762	266.693	42	27	15	26	15
12	Howell	0.57143	0.51282	12.8571	-0.7143	271.785	42	24	18	20	19
13	TeamRankings.com	0.64286	0.60000	11.5643	-0.7357	259.951	42	27	15	24	16
14	Moore Power Ratings	0.59524	0.53659	12.5036	-0.7512	303.554	42	25	17	22	19
15	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.66667	0.58537	12.2095	-0.7714	269.618	42	28	14	24	17
16	Dokter Entropy	0.54762	0.53659	12.0024	-0.7848	271.779	42	23	19	22	19
17	David Harville	0.61905	0.53659	11.8800	-0.7919	271.192	42	26	16	22	19
18	Catherwood Ratings	0.73810	0.56757	12.0476	-0.8095	275.699	42	31	11	21	16
19	Payne Predict	0.61905	0.60976	11.7355	-0.8664	283.301	42	26	16	25	16
20	Born Power Index	0.69048	0.51220	12.6929	-0.8786	302.962	42	29	13	21	20
21	Stephen Kerns	0.64286	0.60976	11.3655	-0.8940	246.748	42	27	15	25	16
22	System Average	0.61905	0.65854	11.8624	-0.9576	263.357	42	26	16	27	14
23	Laz Index	0.57143	0.60976	11.7760	-0.9650	264.507	42	24	18	25	16
24	Sagarin Points	0.57143	0.63415	11.8288	-0.9998	264.123	42	24	18	26	15
25	Pigskin Index	0.69048	0.57895	12.1193	-1.0236	270.238	42	29	13	22	16
26	Daniel Curry Index	0.73171	0.52500	12.5902	-1.0293	275.927	41	30	11	21	19
27	System Median	0.61905	0.63415	11.8533	-1.0600	263.523	42	26	16	26	15
28	ARGH Power Ratings	0.54762	0.47500	12.4464	-1.1250	267.153	42	23	19	19	21
29	Laffaye RWP	0.54762	0.43902	13.0069	1.1355	284.436	42	23	19	18	23
30	Line (updated)	0.61905	0.68000	12.0357	-1.2024	239.245	42	26	16	17	8
31	ESPN FPI	0.59524	0.53659	11.6314	-1.2129	264.299	42	25	17	22	19
32	Computer Adjusted Line	0.61905	0.64286	12.0119	-1.2262	243.613	42	26	16	18	10
33	Sagarin Ratings	0.61905	0.60976	11.8360	-1.2274	264.261	42	26	16	25	16
34	Stat Fox	0.69048	0.60000	11.6669	-1.2374	272.594	42	29	13	24	16
35	Waywardtrends	0.69048	0.63415	11.6438	-1.2486	259.150	42	29	13	26	15
36	Sagarin Recent	0.69048	0.60976	11.8129	-1.2805	262.814	42	29	13	25	16
37	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.57143	0.51220	12.2471	-1.3338	278.335	42	24	18	21	20
38	Line (Midweek)	0.64286		12.1667	-1.4524	247.795	42	27	15
39	Donchess Inference	0.57143	0.58537	12.0095	-1.4857	259.430	42	24	18	24	17
40	Massey Ratings	0.59524	0.56098	12.4081	-1.5595	284.297	42	25	17	23	18
41	Payne Power Ratings	0.52381	0.56098	12.4612	-1.5850	283.672	42	22	20	23	18
42	Line (opening)	0.59524	0.57143	12.2857	-1.6190	270.676	42	25	17	20	15
43	Beck Elo	0.59524	0.48718	12.2888	-1.6202	283.215	42	25	17	19	20
44	Massey Consensus	0.54762	0.48780	12.7398	-1.7383	305.898	42	23	19	20	21
45	Payne W/L	0.52381	0.43902	12.9883	-1.9721	301.727	42	22	20	18	23
46	Cleanup Hitter	0.50000	0.53659	13.1786	-2.3210	319.181	42	21	21	22	19
47	Dave Congrove	0.61905	0.58537	12.0848	-2.3629	282.688	42	26	16	24	17
48	Logistic Regression	0.50000	0.51220	12.8690	-2.3814	312.138	42	21	21	21	20
49	Billingsley	0.50000	0.48780	12.7510	-2.4162	292.733	42	21	21	20	21
50	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.59524	0.51220	12.9340	2.8545	278.387	42	25	17	21	20
51	Brent Craig	0.66667	0.66667	22.3433	-10.6167	841.238	3	2	1	2	1


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases