Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Last Week

Through 2022-01-11
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1FEI Projections1.000001.000003.50003.500011010
2Dunkel Index1.000001.000006.97006.970011010
3Howell1.000001.000007.50007.500011010
4Linear Regression1.000001.000007.54007.540011010
5ARGH Power Ratings1.000001.000008.00008.000011010
6Daniel Curry Index1.000001.000008.11008.110011010
7Talisman Red1.000001.000008.53008.530011010
8DP Dwiggins1.000001.000009.00009.000011010
9Versus Sports Simulator1.000001.000009.16009.160011010
10Payne Predict1.000001.000009.62009.620011010
11TeamRankings.com1.000001.0000010.000010.000011010
12PerformanZ Ratings1.000001.0000010.580010.580011010
13Laz Index1.000001.0000010.850010.850011010
14Least Squares w/ HFA1.000001.0000011.540011.540011010
15Sagarin Points1.000001.0000011.580011.580011010
16Laffaye RWP1.000001.0000011.710011.710011010
17Stephen Kerns1.000001.0000011.800011.800011010
18David Harville1.000001.0000011.830011.830011010
19Computer Adjusted Line1.0000012.000012.0000110
20Line (updated)1.0000012.000012.0000110
21Loudsound.org1.0000012.000012.0000110
22Line (Midweek)1.0000012.000012.0000110
23Edward Kambour1.000000.0000012.050012.050011001
24Beck Elo1.000000.0000012.100012.100011001
25ESPN FPI1.000000.0000012.120012.120011001
26System Average1.000000.0000012.550012.550011001
27Brent Craig1.000000.0000012.580012.580011001
28System Median1.000000.0000012.640012.640011001
29Pi-Ratings Mean1.000000.0000012.700012.700011001
30PI-Rate Bias1.000000.0000012.900012.900011001
31Born Power Index1.000000.0000013.100013.100011001
32Payne Power Ratings1.000000.0000013.390013.390011001
33Moore Power Ratings1.000000.0000013.460013.460011001
34Pi-Rate Ratings1.000000.0000013.500013.500011001
35Sagarin Ratings1.000000.0000013.950013.950011001
36Massey Ratings1.000000.0000014.200014.200011001
37Super List1.000000.0000014.830014.830011001
38Massey Consensus1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
39Logistic Regression1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
40Dave Congrove1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
41Dokter Entropy0.000000.0000015.300015.300010101
42Payne W/L0.000000.0000015.420015.420010101
43Sagarin Golden Mean0.000000.0000015.710015.710010101
44Billingsley0.000000.0000015.800015.800010101
45Stat Fox0.000000.0000016.000016.000010101
46Line (opening)0.000000.0000016.000016.000010101
47Sagarin Recent0.000000.0000016.960016.960010101
48Donchess Inference0.000000.0000018.000018.000010101
49Pigskin Index0.000000.0000019.000019.000010101
50Cleanup Hitter0.000000.0000020.500020.500010101
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases