Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Last Week

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Dokter Entropy0.435900.5641013.17000.0264257.6243917222217
2Massey Ratings0.564100.5588213.1282-0.0513268.1023922171915
3System Median0.512820.6052612.97180.0744257.1703920192315
4Ashby AccuRatings0.615380.6578912.6408-0.0756264.1803924152513
5ARGH Power Ratings0.538460.6756812.6923-0.0769262.7343921182512
6Line (opening)0.410260.4705913.55130.1154275.0963916231618
7Stephen Kerns0.487180.5641012.6385-0.1256255.1373919202217
8Moore Power Ratings0.564100.6410313.09000.1459264.6683922172514
9System Average0.487180.6153813.03210.1736259.6183919202415
10Bihl System0.578950.5789512.8295-0.2042252.1643822162216
11Beck Elo0.589740.5897413.26360.2195256.5723923162316
12Daniel Curry Index0.589740.5128212.9385-0.2205244.6733923162019
13Laz Index0.487180.6410313.0221-0.2231266.1253919202514
14Keeper0.552630.5000012.8163-0.2295243.3213821171919
15DirectorOfInformation0.461540.4871813.3826-0.2738280.1173918211920
16PerformanZ Ratings0.512820.5641013.06260.2944269.7643920192217
17Donchess Inference0.538460.5384613.26180.3136267.6063921182118
18Computer Adjusted Line0.487180.4090913.50000.3205270.773391920913
19Line (updated)0.487180.3157913.57690.3718273.426391920613
20PointShare0.512820.4359013.82030.3741291.7513920191722
21Loudsound.org0.523810.7500012.4757-0.3805261.703211110155
22ComPughter Ratings0.512820.5641013.66000.3846298.9713920192217
23Brent Craig0.473680.4736813.33000.3921260.0063818201820
24Line (Midweek)0.5128213.41030.4359269.111392019
25Thompson Average0.487180.5897413.22950.4505260.9603919202316
26Sportrends0.540540.5882413.29730.4595287.8463720172014
27Thompson ATS0.487180.6153813.28210.4872264.4693919202415
28Regression Based Analys0.608700.5909112.52170.5217247.72723149139
29Sagarin Points Elo0.666670.5384613.3921-0.5279271.6203926132118
30ThePowerRank.com0.538460.5526313.1438-0.5331271.8153921182117
31Stat Fox0.538460.5000012.94950.5392262.4893921181717
32Thompson CAL0.487180.5897413.33850.5436263.3403919202316
33Atomic Football0.461540.5588213.2821-0.5641275.8383918211915
34CPA Retro0.512820.4871813.16560.5846270.6503920191920
35Pigskin Index0.589740.4864913.0518-0.5892264.7393923161819
36Marsee0.487180.4736813.66670.5897278.3763919201820
37Cleanup Hitter0.487180.5897413.0541-0.6228266.6193919202316
38Super List0.538460.6153813.00030.6449262.4853921182415
39Payne Power Ratings0.615380.5384613.0490-0.6567265.3223924152118
40Edward Kambour0.564100.4871813.37150.6726278.0023922171920
41Massey Consensus0.564100.6410312.8485-0.7105264.4583922172514
42Sagarin Ratings0.512820.6410313.18590.8362263.9663920192514
43Pi-Ratings Mean0.487180.5263213.51510.8900266.7993919202018
44Sagarin Points0.538460.5384613.10150.9138263.9563921182118
45Dave Congrove0.615380.5384613.1364-0.9210284.6073924152118
46NutShell Combo0.564100.5641013.4723-0.9518271.5043922172217
47Logistic Regression0.615380.5128214.0295-1.0356309.5573924152019
48Born Power Index0.512820.5641012.71051.1515253.9453920192217
49Billingsley+0.487180.5128213.4495-1.1674276.5383919202019
50Lee Burdorf0.512820.4871813.56151.1718279.7693920191920
51Howell0.605260.6000012.6047-1.2363257.1723823152114
52Nutshell Girl0.512820.5384614.3433-1.2644350.0443920192118
53Laffaye RWP0.564100.5384613.2364-1.2733280.1663922172118
54Covers.com0.487180.5945913.2118-1.3005283.1153919202215
55NutShell Sports0.538460.5641013.2231-1.3513261.1813921182217
56CPA Rankings0.512820.4615413.04671.4103260.8783920191821
57PI-Rate Bias0.487180.5000013.38181.4997273.2463919201919
58FEI Projections0.538460.4722214.0256-1.5128297.2493921181719
59Billingsley0.512820.4871813.6244-1.5567299.1083920191920
60Pi-Rate Ratings0.461540.4871813.49771.5690274.8073918211920
61Catherwood Ratings0.487180.4473713.87181.6154289.9593919201721
62Linear Regression0.538460.5789513.23921.6900269.8323921182216
63Sagarin Golden Mean0.512820.5897413.33511.7751287.8263920192316
64Dunkel Index0.564100.4615413.73131.8533274.2213922171821
65Nutshell Eye0.538460.5128213.7092-1.8564289.0673921182019
66MDS Model0.631580.6315812.1587-1.9713251.3983824142414
67Tempo Free Gridiron0.434780.4090914.0000-3.4783301.735231013913
68Least Squares w/ HFA0.512820.3333317.41515.0885424.2133920191326
69Laffaye XWP0.538460.4615418.01039.4769499.3973921181821
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases