ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Second Half Totals

Through 2023-01-10

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Sagarin Recent	0.67830	0.52141	12.4430	0.3165	257.696	401	272	129	207	190
2	DP Dwiggins	0.67500	0.51181	12.8200	-0.3600	273.570	400	270	130	195	186
3	Sagarin Ratings	0.69077	0.51385	12.3537	0.3741	254.033	401	277	124	204	193
4	Sagarin Points	0.66584	0.51889	12.4593	0.3785	255.950	401	267	134	206	191
5	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.67830	0.49874	12.3747	0.5489	257.745	401	272	129	198	199
6	Massey Ratings	0.68080	0.54408	12.4326	0.5710	259.567	401	273	128	216	181
7	Talisman Red	0.67581	0.53149	12.6589	0.6449	269.413	401	271	130	211	186
8	Payne W/L	0.65087	0.50253	13.1545	0.6977	291.661	401	261	140	199	197
9	TeamRankings.com	0.69077	0.48092	12.4025	0.7067	258.742	401	277	124	189	204
10	David Harville	0.67830	0.51899	12.3732	0.7194	258.638	401	272	129	205	190
11	Moore Power Ratings	0.67082	0.47607	12.8968	0.7591	277.022	401	269	132	189	208
12	Payne Power Ratings	0.67332	0.49370	12.8127	0.8145	277.013	401	270	131	196	201
13	Roundtable	0.69966	0.49825	12.7270	0.8498	267.250	293	205	88	142	143
14	Logistic Regression	0.64756	0.53623	14.2849	-0.8567	362.924	349	226	123	185	160
15	Daniel Curry Index	0.68342	0.51523	12.8351	0.8798	277.612	398	272	126	203	191
16	Line (Midweek)	0.68828		12.1658	0.8865	246.572	401	276	125
17	ARGH Power Ratings	0.66584	0.48148	12.7731	0.8953	272.858	401	267	134	182	196
18	Edward Kambour	0.68329	0.51134	12.4024	0.9204	257.449	401	274	127	203	194
19	Line (opening)	0.68080	0.51506	12.1858	0.9214	248.344	401	273	128	171	161
20	Cleanup Hitter	0.62095	0.48837	13.5960	0.9279	298.045	401	249	152	189	198
21	Line (updated)	0.69077	0.48795	12.1696	0.9352	245.637	401	277	124	81	85
22	Computer Adjusted Line	0.68828	0.49780	12.1746	0.9401	246.707	401	276	125	113	114
23	System Median	0.68329	0.50891	12.2863	1.0033	254.703	401	274	127	200	193
24	Versus Sports Simulator	0.67332	0.49118	12.7174	1.0186	270.507	401	270	131	195	202
25	Payne Predict	0.67332	0.47475	12.9410	1.0327	283.334	401	270	131	188	208
26	System Average	0.67830	0.49495	12.3219	1.0654	255.928	401	272	129	196	200
27	Bihl System	0.68802	0.47472	12.7996	1.0667	268.819	359	247	112	169	187
28	Laz Index	0.67920	0.53046	12.5239	1.1060	258.874	399	271	128	209	185
29	Billingsley	0.67332	0.51134	12.8153	1.1215	277.332	401	270	131	203	194
30	Pigskin Index	0.68828	0.50928	12.5860	1.1550	268.728	401	276	125	192	185
31	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.70324	0.49361	12.3947	1.2003	261.324	401	282	119	193	198
32	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.70823	0.49100	12.3065	1.2143	257.356	401	284	117	191	198
33	Laffaye RWP	0.67830	0.49622	12.8430	1.2225	277.720	401	272	129	197	200
34	Donchess Inference	0.68080	0.52163	12.3888	1.2311	253.483	401	273	128	205	188
35	Dave Congrove	0.67830	0.50758	12.6351	1.2525	273.307	401	272	129	201	195
36	FEI Projections	0.68579	0.51015	12.5154	-1.2731	260.921	401	275	126	201	193
37	Howell	0.68080	0.48670	13.0873	1.2844	287.375	401	273	128	183	193
38	PI-Rate Bias	0.69327	0.48608	12.4667	1.2967	262.545	401	278	123	192	203
39	Linear Regression	0.68481	0.49565	12.8546	1.3205	278.097	349	239	110	171	174
40	Stephen Kerns	0.68579	0.53046	12.6303	1.3528	267.524	401	275	126	209	185
41	Dokter Entropy	0.68828	0.50253	12.3029	1.3881	253.666	401	276	125	199	197
42	Born Power Index	0.67830	0.48866	12.7783	1.4112	275.438	401	272	129	194	203
43	Dunkel Index	0.68687	0.51276	12.8034	1.4600	279.992	396	272	124	201	191
44	Waywardtrends	0.66833	0.54798	12.4554	1.4761	263.560	401	268	133	217	179
45	ESPN FPI	0.68579	0.51889	12.3418	1.5017	256.291	401	275	126	206	191
46	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.66225	0.53512	14.3719	1.5603	327.602	302	200	102	160	139
47	Beck Elo	0.67581	0.47583	12.7865	1.6138	278.086	401	271	130	187	206
48	Loudsound.org	0.68857	0.53659	12.7886	-1.6800	271.466	350	241	109	176	152
49	Massey Consensus	0.67581	0.49874	13.0219	1.7170	287.824	401	271	130	198	199
50	Brent Craig	0.69722	0.48459	12.7496	1.7930	271.689	360	251	109	173	184
51	PerformanZ Ratings	0.66584	0.52141	13.6989	1.9048	305.681	401	267	134	207	190
52	Keeper	0.68750	0.51646	12.8292	2.1349	272.116	400	275	125	204	191
53	Catherwood Ratings	0.67082	0.47721	12.9551	2.3965	283.654	401	269	132	178	195
54	Stat Fox	0.67581	0.49606	12.7732	2.4193	275.892	401	271	130	189	192


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases