Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2021 Second Half Totals
Through 2022-01-11
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.70324 | 0.46717 | 13.2347 | 0.0998 | 269.784 | 401 | 282 | 119 | 185 | 211 |
2 | Payne W/L | 0.71571 | 0.46954 | 13.8109 | -0.1546 | 292.611 | 401 | 287 | 114 | 185 | 209 |
3 | Bihl System | 0.70248 | 0.49722 | 12.9301 | 0.2500 | 254.820 | 363 | 255 | 108 | 179 | 181 |
4 | FEI Projections | 0.68750 | 0.49873 | 12.9232 | 0.3387 | 255.325 | 400 | 275 | 125 | 196 | 197 |
5 | Talisman Red | 0.67839 | 0.48092 | 13.1038 | 0.3416 | 265.505 | 398 | 270 | 128 | 189 | 204 |
6 | Sagarin Points | 0.68828 | 0.45316 | 13.0082 | 0.4445 | 257.926 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 179 | 216 |
7 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.68329 | 0.43687 | 12.9094 | 0.4542 | 253.158 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 173 | 223 |
8 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.67581 | 0.46212 | 12.9945 | 0.4566 | 256.537 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 183 | 213 |
9 | Massey Ratings | 0.67082 | 0.46970 | 13.1850 | 0.4600 | 263.324 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 186 | 210 |
10 | Howell | 0.71679 | 0.48168 | 13.1240 | 0.4676 | 262.054 | 399 | 286 | 113 | 184 | 198 |
11 | Roundtable | 0.70607 | 0.51203 | 12.7284 | 0.4792 | 250.236 | 313 | 221 | 92 | 149 | 142 |
12 | David Harville | 0.69077 | 0.46582 | 12.9305 | 0.4803 | 255.005 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 184 | 211 |
13 | Linear Regression | 0.69077 | 0.49747 | 13.1928 | 0.4825 | 267.460 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 197 | 199 |
14 | Sagarin Recent | 0.68329 | 0.48485 | 12.9943 | 0.5106 | 260.414 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 192 | 204 |
15 | Line (opening) | 0.69327 | 0.52023 | 12.6471 | 0.5424 | 251.068 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 180 | 166 |
16 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.71072 | 0.48438 | 13.1521 | 0.5686 | 266.275 | 401 | 285 | 116 | 186 | 198 |
17 | Payne Predict | 0.70823 | 0.48737 | 13.0865 | 0.5846 | 265.448 | 401 | 284 | 117 | 193 | 203 |
18 | Line (updated) | 0.71322 | 0.46259 | 12.5100 | 0.6072 | 243.551 | 401 | 286 | 115 | 68 | 79 |
19 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68329 | 0.47222 | 13.2498 | 0.6096 | 268.991 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 187 | 209 |
20 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66584 | 0.51515 | 15.6582 | 0.6268 | 372.986 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 204 | 192 |
21 | Line (Midweek) | 0.69077 | | 12.5499 | 0.6471 | 244.872 | 401 | 277 | 124 | | |
22 | Edward Kambour | 0.69327 | 0.47222 | 12.9581 | 0.6587 | 255.632 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 187 | 209 |
23 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.70075 | 0.46000 | 12.5499 | 0.6621 | 244.089 | 401 | 281 | 120 | 92 | 108 |
24 | Billingsley | 0.72070 | 0.46212 | 13.6496 | 0.6766 | 292.054 | 401 | 289 | 112 | 183 | 213 |
25 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.69250 | 0.47089 | 13.1356 | 0.7023 | 264.443 | 400 | 277 | 123 | 186 | 209 |
26 | Donchess Inference | 0.69825 | 0.48329 | 13.1048 | 0.7736 | 262.332 | 401 | 280 | 121 | 188 | 201 |
27 | Brent Craig | 0.71429 | 0.52355 | 12.9315 | 0.7749 | 258.543 | 364 | 260 | 104 | 189 | 172 |
28 | System Median | 0.67830 | 0.49239 | 12.8062 | 0.7864 | 251.569 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 194 | 200 |
29 | Laz Index | 0.69576 | 0.49495 | 12.9651 | 0.8169 | 258.561 | 401 | 279 | 122 | 196 | 200 |
30 | System Average | 0.69077 | 0.50000 | 12.7663 | 0.8347 | 250.233 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 198 | 198 |
31 | TeamRankings.com | 0.69077 | 0.52174 | 12.8536 | 0.8357 | 256.795 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 204 | 187 |
32 | Pigskin Index | 0.67082 | 0.49046 | 13.0448 | 0.9206 | 261.144 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 180 | 187 |
33 | Stephen Kerns | 0.69327 | 0.49873 | 13.2312 | 0.9541 | 263.526 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 197 | 198 |
34 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.65337 | 0.46875 | 14.3604 | 0.9542 | 316.503 | 401 | 262 | 139 | 180 | 204 |
35 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.67581 | 0.50127 | 13.0953 | 0.9686 | 264.247 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 197 | 196 |
36 | Laffaye RWP | 0.69275 | 0.50000 | 13.5830 | 1.0170 | 286.990 | 345 | 239 | 106 | 170 | 170 |
37 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.68579 | 0.48454 | 13.1075 | 1.0182 | 262.925 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 188 | 200 |
38 | Dokter Entropy | 0.69250 | 0.46565 | 12.9633 | 1.0217 | 262.196 | 400 | 277 | 123 | 183 | 210 |
39 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.68579 | 0.49747 | 13.0961 | 1.0840 | 264.370 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 197 | 199 |
40 | Beck Elo | 0.69327 | 0.51263 | 13.1021 | 1.1038 | 265.591 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 203 | 193 |
41 | Dave Congrove | 0.66250 | 0.50000 | 13.4386 | 1.1211 | 277.764 | 400 | 265 | 135 | 197 | 197 |
42 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.68579 | 0.50000 | 13.2516 | 1.1222 | 272.744 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 198 | 198 |
43 | Dunkel Index | 0.66833 | 0.49242 | 13.1188 | 1.2242 | 262.208 | 401 | 268 | 133 | 195 | 201 |
44 | ESPN FPI | 0.69077 | 0.47089 | 12.8620 | 1.3393 | 258.710 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 186 | 209 |
45 | Massey Consensus | 0.72818 | 0.47089 | 13.4266 | 1.3417 | 277.534 | 401 | 292 | 109 | 186 | 209 |
46 | Keeper | 0.70854 | 0.51020 | 13.2882 | 1.3486 | 273.753 | 398 | 282 | 116 | 200 | 192 |
47 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.72818 | 0.48485 | 13.3821 | 1.3665 | 279.104 | 401 | 292 | 109 | 192 | 204 |
48 | Born Power Index | 0.67082 | 0.49495 | 13.1859 | 1.3675 | 268.773 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 196 | 200 |
49 | DP Dwiggins | 0.70101 | 0.49602 | 13.0628 | 1.3693 | 266.616 | 398 | 279 | 119 | 187 | 190 |
50 | Super List | 0.70574 | 0.50886 | 15.1764 | 1.4997 | 351.861 | 401 | 283 | 118 | 201 | 194 |
51 | Loudsound.org | 0.68367 | 0.47606 | 13.6862 | -1.9923 | 281.273 | 392 | 268 | 124 | 179 | 197 |
52 | Logistic Regression | 0.67830 | 0.47222 | 15.4058 | -2.1711 | 369.469 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 187 | 209 |
53 | Stat Fox | 0.66584 | 0.49737 | 13.1522 | 2.3942 | 268.566 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 189 | 191 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases