ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Second Half Totals

Through 2022-01-11

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Payne Power Ratings	0.70324	0.46717	13.2347	0.0998	269.784	401	282	119	185	211
2	Payne W/L	0.71571	0.46954	13.8109	-0.1546	292.611	401	287	114	185	209
3	Bihl System	0.70248	0.49722	12.9301	0.2500	254.820	363	255	108	179	181
4	FEI Projections	0.68750	0.49873	12.9232	0.3387	255.325	400	275	125	196	197
5	Talisman Red	0.67839	0.48092	13.1038	0.3416	265.505	398	270	128	189	204
6	Sagarin Points	0.68828	0.45316	13.0082	0.4445	257.926	401	276	125	179	216
7	Sagarin Ratings	0.68329	0.43687	12.9094	0.4542	253.158	401	274	127	173	223
8	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.67581	0.46212	12.9945	0.4566	256.537	401	271	130	183	213
9	Massey Ratings	0.67082	0.46970	13.1850	0.4600	263.324	401	269	132	186	210
10	Howell	0.71679	0.48168	13.1240	0.4676	262.054	399	286	113	184	198
11	Roundtable	0.70607	0.51203	12.7284	0.4792	250.236	313	221	92	149	142
12	David Harville	0.69077	0.46582	12.9305	0.4803	255.005	401	277	124	184	211
13	Linear Regression	0.69077	0.49747	13.1928	0.4825	267.460	401	277	124	197	199
14	Sagarin Recent	0.68329	0.48485	12.9943	0.5106	260.414	401	274	127	192	204
15	Line (opening)	0.69327	0.52023	12.6471	0.5424	251.068	401	278	123	180	166
16	ARGH Power Ratings	0.71072	0.48438	13.1521	0.5686	266.275	401	285	116	186	198
17	Payne Predict	0.70823	0.48737	13.0865	0.5846	265.448	401	284	117	193	203
18	Line (updated)	0.71322	0.46259	12.5100	0.6072	243.551	401	286	115	68	79
19	Daniel Curry Index	0.68329	0.47222	13.2498	0.6096	268.991	401	274	127	187	209
20	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.66584	0.51515	15.6582	0.6268	372.986	401	267	134	204	192
21	Line (Midweek)	0.69077		12.5499	0.6471	244.872	401	277	124
22	Edward Kambour	0.69327	0.47222	12.9581	0.6587	255.632	401	278	123	187	209
23	Computer Adjusted Line	0.70075	0.46000	12.5499	0.6621	244.089	401	281	120	92	108
24	Billingsley	0.72070	0.46212	13.6496	0.6766	292.054	401	289	112	183	213
25	Versus Sports Simulator	0.69250	0.47089	13.1356	0.7023	264.443	400	277	123	186	209
26	Donchess Inference	0.69825	0.48329	13.1048	0.7736	262.332	401	280	121	188	201
27	Brent Craig	0.71429	0.52355	12.9315	0.7749	258.543	364	260	104	189	172
28	System Median	0.67830	0.49239	12.8062	0.7864	251.569	401	272	129	194	200
29	Laz Index	0.69576	0.49495	12.9651	0.8169	258.561	401	279	122	196	200
30	System Average	0.69077	0.50000	12.7663	0.8347	250.233	401	277	124	198	198
31	TeamRankings.com	0.69077	0.52174	12.8536	0.8357	256.795	401	277	124	204	187
32	Pigskin Index	0.67082	0.49046	13.0448	0.9206	261.144	401	269	132	180	187
33	Stephen Kerns	0.69327	0.49873	13.2312	0.9541	263.526	401	278	123	197	198
34	Cleanup Hitter	0.65337	0.46875	14.3604	0.9542	316.503	401	262	139	180	204
35	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.67581	0.50127	13.0953	0.9686	264.247	401	271	130	197	196
36	Laffaye RWP	0.69275	0.50000	13.5830	1.0170	286.990	345	239	106	170	170
37	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.68579	0.48454	13.1075	1.0182	262.925	401	275	126	188	200
38	Dokter Entropy	0.69250	0.46565	12.9633	1.0217	262.196	400	277	123	183	210
39	PI-Rate Bias	0.68579	0.49747	13.0961	1.0840	264.370	401	275	126	197	199
40	Beck Elo	0.69327	0.51263	13.1021	1.1038	265.591	401	278	123	203	193
41	Dave Congrove	0.66250	0.50000	13.4386	1.1211	277.764	400	265	135	197	197
42	Moore Power Ratings	0.68579	0.50000	13.2516	1.1222	272.744	401	275	126	198	198
43	Dunkel Index	0.66833	0.49242	13.1188	1.2242	262.208	401	268	133	195	201
44	ESPN FPI	0.69077	0.47089	12.8620	1.3393	258.710	401	277	124	186	209
45	Massey Consensus	0.72818	0.47089	13.4266	1.3417	277.534	401	292	109	186	209
46	Keeper	0.70854	0.51020	13.2882	1.3486	273.753	398	282	116	200	192
47	PerformanZ Ratings	0.72818	0.48485	13.3821	1.3665	279.104	401	292	109	192	204
48	Born Power Index	0.67082	0.49495	13.1859	1.3675	268.773	401	269	132	196	200
49	DP Dwiggins	0.70101	0.49602	13.0628	1.3693	266.616	398	279	119	187	190
50	Super List	0.70574	0.50886	15.1764	1.4997	351.861	401	283	118	201	194
51	Loudsound.org	0.68367	0.47606	13.6862	-1.9923	281.273	392	268	124	179	197
52	Logistic Regression	0.67830	0.47222	15.4058	-2.1711	369.469	401	272	129	187	209
53	Stat Fox	0.66584	0.49737	13.1522	2.3942	268.566	401	267	134	189	191

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases