Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Second Half Totals

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Laz Index0.714960.5024513.3845-0.0067282.007421301120205203
2NutShell Combo0.710210.5246313.78130.0451303.199421299122213193
3Least Squares w/ HFA0.666670.5322115.45410.0537375.347369246123190167
4Pi-Ratings Mean0.693590.5062013.36620.0609279.121421292129204199
5Nutshell Eye0.684090.5174113.8560-0.0618310.448421288133208194
6NutShell Sports0.695960.5111713.9946-0.0798311.339421293128206197
7Pigskin Index0.717340.5483013.2424-0.0922279.052421302119210173
8Billingsley+0.724470.5441213.23010.1147279.158421305116222186
9Stephen Kerns0.714960.5187013.13660.1153273.012421301120208193
10ThePowerRank.com0.694710.4975113.54980.1344286.417416289127200202
11Billingsley0.700710.5318613.5492-0.1508297.315421295126217191
12PI-Rate Bias0.695960.5123213.39710.2115284.679421293128208198
13Donchess Inference0.703090.5184313.20760.2152275.788421296125211196
14Covers.com0.714960.5420813.4449-0.2154291.280421301120219185
15Howell0.714290.5155413.45350.2227287.045420300120199187
16Pi-Rate Ratings0.698340.5333313.38130.2473286.081421294127216189
17MDS Model0.700580.5045013.7147-0.2503300.594344241103168165
18Dave Congrove0.748220.5147113.55370.2537300.298421315106210198
19DirectorOfInformation0.719710.5024513.06240.2684273.286421303118205203
20Nutshell Girl0.691210.4730414.16230.2815323.692421291130193215
21Randal Horobik0.730160.4891813.85720.2977301.68125218468113118
22Born Power Index0.722090.5343113.50260.3003288.662421304117218190
23Massey Ratings0.714960.5234413.3658-0.3064285.138421301120201183
24System Median0.719710.5350013.08950.3080271.540421303118214186
25System Average0.712590.5208813.10910.3393272.426421300121212195
26ComPughter Ratings0.694510.5049313.7075-0.3436293.888419291128205201
27Sagarin Points Elo0.731590.5185213.30180.3586279.550421308113210195
28Super List0.676960.5392214.67570.3789339.487421285136220188
29Ashby AccuRatings0.731590.5329812.89310.4325267.211421308113202177
30CPA Rankings0.731590.5049013.2431-0.4419278.176421308113206202
31Daniel Curry Index0.721430.5295613.82260.4498300.269420303117215191
32Massey Consensus0.717340.5490213.31330.4597280.955421302119224184
33Beck Elo0.691210.5258013.75410.4671295.399421291130214193
34Linear Regression0.688350.5112413.5403-0.4773287.299369254115182174
35Thompson Average0.714960.5320213.05430.4857269.285421301120216190
36Line (opening)0.699280.5294112.92120.4988266.518419293126180160
37Atomic Football0.712590.5398913.19950.5819279.655421300121203173
38Thompson ATS0.717340.5024513.08600.6209270.603421302119205203
39PerformanZ Ratings0.705460.5294113.36640.6261279.334421297124216192
40Sagarin Ratings0.726840.5405413.14330.6402273.734421306115220187
41ARGH Power Ratings0.726840.5282113.39010.6502283.474421306115206184
42Thompson CAL0.722090.5245112.96480.6618266.308421304117214194
43Lee Burdorf0.700710.4889413.79380.6742300.412421295126199208
44Brent Craig0.683330.4963113.87490.6808297.249420287133202205
45Moore Power Ratings0.712590.5380813.63960.6870296.684421300121219188
46Payne Power Ratings0.735710.5369513.3613-0.7122282.787420309111218188
47Sagarin Golden Mean0.724470.5269613.21970.7225277.833421305116215193
48Bihl System0.706440.4975413.46850.7592284.322419296123202204
49Sagarin Points0.714960.4938613.21230.7641277.773421301120201206
50Edward Kambour0.714960.5122513.36930.7713283.572421301120209199
51FEI Projections0.674580.5076514.2518-0.7838323.376421284137199193
52Line (Midweek)0.7146312.92070.8183268.249410293117
53Dokter Entropy0.714960.5049013.10260.8485269.011421301120206202
54Computer Adjusted Line0.717340.5205012.95960.8575266.877421302119165152
55CPA Retro0.660330.4852914.5276-0.9322324.421421278143198210
56Line (updated)0.717340.5288112.94540.9477266.800421302119156139
57PointShare0.672210.5024613.8475-0.9520302.783421283138204202
58DP Dwiggins0.693070.4408613.88121.0297293.91010170314152
59Sportrends0.678280.5226014.06301.0791309.786373253120185169
60Dunkel Index0.710530.4839514.06161.1671309.021418297121196209
61Catherwood Ratings0.713600.5253813.61341.3604286.783419299120207187
62Keeper0.701670.4926113.49681.4262280.207419294125200206
63Stat Fox0.733970.5180413.43951.5538284.597421309112201187
64Cleanup Hitter0.698250.5051513.71201.5798312.911401280121196192
65Laffaye RWP0.710210.5441213.5657-1.6667299.276421299122222186
66Tempo Free Gridiron0.723130.5411013.6482-1.7134314.80530722285158134
67Regression Based Analys0.729640.5304713.48531.9674298.95230722483148131
68Marsee0.703090.4924613.66032.1971292.680421296125196202
69Logistic Regression0.685640.5546215.7456-2.8696389.856369253116198159
70Brent Craig 20.692310.3137316.09383.1962373.6445236161635
71Loudsound.org0.689460.5625013.8176-3.4239316.756351242109189147
72Laffaye XWP0.688840.4851516.27966.6292413.606421290131196208
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases