Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Season Totals

Through 2022-10-02
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Stephen Kerns0.707870.4198516.1710-0.0122394.84526718978110152
2ESPN FPI0.746150.4882812.25020.0871229.14926019466125131
3System Median0.707870.4769212.6022-0.1018239.30526718978124136
4System Average0.696630.4828912.7216-0.1537242.24626718681127136
5Waywardtrends0.715360.4410613.5312-0.1665276.39926719176116147
6Talisman Red0.704120.4981013.37090.2531276.21826718879131132
7Computer Adjusted Line0.756550.4430411.96820.2753218.521267202657088
8Beck Elo0.700370.4828913.6203-0.2753277.81726718780127136
9Line (Midweek)0.7677911.91010.3109218.36726720562
10Payne Predict0.734080.4961813.01130.3341261.13726719671130132
11Line (updated)0.756550.5537211.88580.3464217.145267202656754
12Sagarin Recent0.741570.4580212.9830-0.3464259.36526719869120142
13Edward Kambour0.694340.4252913.23660.3469270.84126518481111150
14TeamRankings.com0.730340.4730812.4423-0.3494238.94526719572123137
15Cleanup Hitter0.677900.4280215.1179-0.3501342.27626718186110147
16Roundtable0.675210.5398213.7350-0.3846300.23011779386152
17PerformanZ Ratings0.685390.4524714.2922-0.3967307.67926718384119144
18Line (opening)0.752810.5068511.91010.4120219.77526720166111108
19Dave Congrove0.696630.4828913.55810.4703272.01226718681127136
20Brent Craig0.723080.4023412.69270.5180241.50226018872103153
21Dokter Entropy0.730340.4618312.33230.5712230.66926719572121141
22Donchess Inference0.741570.5058812.8473-0.6164256.13726719869129126
23Pi-Ratings Mean0.726590.4618312.68200.6611239.34026719473121141
24David Harville0.722850.4943012.8103-0.8162248.37726719374130133
25Laz Index0.689140.4866913.4989-0.8311273.50326718483128135
26Versus Sports Simulator0.747170.4559412.67290.8436246.95726519867119142
27Sagarin Ratings0.737830.4866912.7473-0.8817246.22226719770128135
28Sagarin Points0.726590.4885512.7727-0.9517250.89826719473128134
29Sagarin Golden Mean0.696630.4943012.8772-0.9531251.34226718681130133
30Pi-Rate Ratings0.734080.4559412.79180.9805244.59526719671119142
31Massey Ratings0.726590.4885512.8297-1.0170247.50026719473128134
32Payne Power Ratings0.730340.4866912.8734-1.0277247.99126719572128135
33PI-Rate Bias0.726590.4809212.64871.0322242.28526719473126136
34Daniel Curry Index0.685390.4866913.66921.1007290.64226718384128135
35Massey Consensus0.700370.4144513.10251.1420265.43926718780109154
36DP Dwiggins0.719100.4824913.6854-1.1910290.57126719275124133
37Moore Power Ratings0.710530.4618313.6852-1.2196290.61626618977121141
38Pigskin Index0.722850.4581712.65541.2549242.31126719374115136
39Dunkel Index0.722220.4525113.69371.5157291.727180130508198
40Keeper0.730340.5285213.44321.6159280.96826719572139124
41Howell0.681650.4370114.1160-1.6927309.11726718285111143
42Billingsley0.657890.4789314.6562-1.7040326.35726617591125136
43Stat Fox0.702700.4475812.90741.7107249.93125918277111137
44Born Power Index0.719100.4600813.40241.7414280.69626719275121142
45ARGH Power Ratings0.707870.4509813.7622-1.8727287.45626718978115140
46Catherwood Ratings0.685390.4307713.94761.8951293.08026718384112148
47Payne W/L0.677900.4542014.1704-2.1832302.06326718186119143
48FEI Projections0.666670.3913013.2479-2.2049275.59111778394570
49Laffaye RWP0.679250.4674314.6920-2.2477318.75426518085122139
50Loudsound.org0.650000.4980415.7808-5.8423367.78026016991127128
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases