ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2022-01-11

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Massey Ratings	0.69091	0.48289	13.4370	-0.0081	276.138	770	532	238	367	393
2	Daniel Curry Index	0.68961	0.46711	13.8791	0.1010	298.036	770	531	239	355	405
3	ARGH Power Ratings	0.71688	0.50000	13.4558	-0.1104	281.555	770	552	218	369	369
4	Payne Power Ratings	0.70390	0.46711	13.6009	-0.1149	286.661	770	542	228	355	405
5	Talisman Red	0.68994	0.49081	13.3432	0.1340	271.022	716	494	222	347	360
6	Howell	0.70833	0.49389	13.5013	-0.1457	282.844	768	544	224	364	373
7	Billingsley	0.71169	0.48221	13.8826	0.1543	304.154	770	548	222	366	393
8	Laffaye RWP	0.70141	0.50359	13.8664	0.2000	304.175	710	498	212	351	346
9	Donchess Inference	0.71688	0.47383	13.2899	0.2138	267.461	770	552	218	353	392
10	Bihl System	0.69324	0.49392	13.0753	0.2528	258.480	414	287	127	203	208
11	Sagarin Points	0.69221	0.45850	13.3517	0.2749	270.378	770	533	237	348	411
12	Line (opening)	0.70779	0.50000	12.7526	0.2760	251.696	770	545	225	337	337
13	David Harville	0.70390	0.45910	13.1467	0.2825	262.413	770	542	228	348	410
14	Sagarin Ratings	0.69091	0.44737	13.2541	0.2903	266.691	770	532	238	340	420
15	DP Dwiggins	0.69191	0.49589	13.9295	0.3133	304.002	766	530	236	362	368
16	FEI Projections	0.68277	0.50412	13.0317	0.3315	257.875	621	424	197	306	301
17	Payne Predict	0.69091	0.46316	13.8672	0.3339	301.146	770	532	238	352	408
18	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.68182	0.46711	13.5186	0.3441	283.960	770	525	245	355	405
19	Line (updated)	0.71818	0.50000	12.6247	0.4247	245.711	770	553	217	165	165
20	Sagarin Recent	0.69221	0.47895	13.5677	0.4317	292.251	770	533	237	364	396
21	Computer Adjusted Line	0.71299	0.47674	12.6591	0.4734	246.306	770	549	221	205	225
22	Line (Midweek)	0.71169		12.6429	0.4740	246.300	770	548	222
23	Linear Regression	0.69077	0.49747	13.1928	0.4825	267.460	401	277	124	197	199
24	Dokter Entropy	0.71651	0.45971	13.1405	0.5041	262.208	769	551	218	348	409
25	PerformanZ Ratings	0.70909	0.47958	14.0244	0.5273	308.273	770	546	224	364	395
26	Brent Craig	0.70843	0.51942	13.0799	0.5354	263.541	415	294	121	214	198
27	System Average	0.70649	0.48617	12.9646	0.5539	255.949	770	544	226	369	390
28	System Median	0.70130	0.47410	12.9598	0.5655	255.160	770	540	230	357	396
29	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.66584	0.51515	15.6582	0.6268	372.986	401	267	134	204	192
30	Moore Power Ratings	0.69221	0.48816	13.4232	0.6346	279.246	770	533	237	371	389
31	Catherwood Ratings	0.77027	0.50000	13.7432	0.6351	276.443	148	114	34	70	70
32	Laz Index	0.71429	0.48681	13.1609	0.6398	263.527	770	550	220	369	389
33	Versus Sports Simulator	0.70143	0.46764	13.3260	0.6634	271.270	767	538	229	354	403
34	Edward Kambour	0.70909	0.48158	13.2806	0.6883	265.528	770	546	224	366	394
35	Payne W/L	0.71299	0.47625	14.3145	-0.7173	318.431	770	549	221	361	397
36	Roundtable	0.69231	0.50198	13.6266	0.7186	293.881	533	369	164	253	251
37	TeamRankings.com	0.70390	0.48271	13.1130	0.7473	263.278	770	542	228	363	389
38	Beck Elo	0.69610	0.49474	13.4583	0.7619	284.370	770	536	234	376	384
39	Cleanup Hitter	0.66883	0.47312	14.3228	0.8333	319.305	770	515	255	352	392
40	Pigskin Index	0.68312	0.50211	13.1947	0.9822	262.218	770	526	244	357	354
41	Dave Congrove	0.68270	0.50528	13.7253	0.9936	288.525	769	525	244	383	375
42	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.70909	0.49398	13.1366	1.0153	261.875	770	546	224	369	378
43	Stephen Kerns	0.68831	0.50725	13.9070	1.0216	301.969	770	530	240	385	374
44	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.69870	0.50531	13.2049	1.0277	264.988	770	538	232	381	373
45	PI-Rate Bias	0.71039	0.49538	13.2086	1.1340	264.793	770	547	223	375	382
46	ESPN FPI	0.69870	0.46772	13.0218	1.1573	260.627	770	538	232	355	404
47	Keeper	0.71035	0.51531	13.4245	1.2305	283.635	763	542	221	387	364
48	Massey Consensus	0.72857	0.48748	13.5983	1.2433	283.608	770	561	209	370	389
49	Born Power Index	0.68442	0.48553	13.5410	1.2933	278.308	770	527	243	369	391
50	Dunkel Index	0.67630	0.49780	13.5055	1.3240	279.919	692	468	224	340	343
51	Super List	0.71299	0.49934	15.2931	1.5619	355.876	770	549	221	378	379
52	Logistic Regression	0.67830	0.47222	15.4058	-2.1711	369.469	401	272	129	187	209
53	Stat Fox	0.68701	0.49038	13.4117	2.1963	274.644	770	529	241	357	371
54	Loudsound.org	0.65395	0.47962	14.7039	-2.9618	340.061	760	497	263	353	383

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases