ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-12-05

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Billingsley	0.71409	0.47645	13.9562	0.0539	306.275	731	522	209	344	378
2	Talisman Red	0.69809	0.49554	13.2858	-0.0636	268.243	679	474	205	333	339
3	Laffaye RWP	0.70877	0.49698	13.8882	0.0672	304.734	673	477	196	329	333
4	Daniel Curry Index	0.70041	0.46750	13.8819	-0.0720	297.049	731	512	219	338	385
5	Donchess Inference	0.72230	0.46751	13.2713	0.1053	266.990	731	528	203	331	377
6	DP Dwiggins	0.69876	0.49785	13.9230	0.1183	303.285	727	508	219	348	351
7	David Harville	0.71272	0.45770	13.0907	0.1360	260.463	731	521	210	330	391
8	Line (opening)	0.71956	0.50233	12.7004	0.1382	249.200	731	526	205	324	321
9	Payne Predict	0.69904	0.46473	13.8169	0.1442	299.887	731	511	220	336	387
10	Sagarin Points	0.70588	0.46122	13.2987	0.1515	267.874	731	516	215	333	389
11	Sagarin Ratings	0.70041	0.44675	13.2244	0.1602	264.812	731	512	219	323	400
12	Massey Ratings	0.70588	0.48548	13.4021	-0.1630	274.564	731	516	215	351	372
13	FEI Projections	0.69297	0.50963	12.9631	0.1775	254.026	583	404	179	291	280
14	Linear Regression	0.70718	0.50696	13.0521	0.2023	260.289	362	256	106	182	177
15	Bihl System	0.69492	0.49512	13.0707	0.2171	258.562	413	287	126	203	207
16	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.69220	0.46611	13.5052	0.2220	283.036	731	506	225	337	386
17	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.68785	0.52089	15.6391	0.2504	371.884	362	249	113	187	172
18	Sagarin Recent	0.69767	0.47580	13.5801	0.2712	292.150	731	510	221	344	379
19	ARGH Power Ratings	0.72367	0.49715	13.4576	-0.2770	281.199	731	529	202	349	353
20	Payne Power Ratings	0.70588	0.46611	13.6216	-0.2945	287.186	731	516	215	337	386
21	Line (updated)	0.72093	0.48534	12.6368	0.3044	245.906	731	527	204	149	158
22	Howell	0.70919	0.49003	13.5322	-0.3154	283.369	729	517	212	344	358
23	Computer Adjusted Line	0.71546	0.47015	12.6580	0.3516	246.081	731	523	208	189	213
24	Line (Midweek)	0.72093		12.6149	0.3687	245.402	731	527	204
25	PerformanZ Ratings	0.71135	0.47922	14.0150	0.3878	307.737	731	520	211	346	376
26	Dokter Entropy	0.72777	0.46325	13.0999	0.4198	260.263	731	532	199	334	387
27	System Average	0.71546	0.48338	12.9209	0.4208	253.856	731	523	208	349	373
28	System Median	0.70999	0.47346	12.9072	0.4321	252.788	731	519	212	339	377
29	Brent Craig	0.70944	0.52195	13.0723	0.4671	263.758	413	293	120	214	196
30	Moore Power Ratings	0.70451	0.49101	13.3753	0.4821	277.694	731	515	216	355	368
31	Laz Index	0.72640	0.48821	13.1101	0.5061	261.188	731	531	200	352	369
32	Versus Sports Simulator	0.71056	0.47434	13.2535	0.5166	268.502	729	518	211	342	379
33	Edward Kambour	0.71819	0.48686	13.2290	0.5752	263.238	731	525	206	352	371
34	Roundtable	0.71026	0.50317	13.6056	0.5795	293.432	497	353	144	238	235
35	Catherwood Ratings	0.77027	0.50000	13.7432	0.6351	276.443	148	114	34	70	70
36	TeamRankings.com	0.71546	0.49091	13.0264	0.6355	260.157	731	523	208	351	364
37	Beck Elo	0.70041	0.49101	13.4690	0.6618	284.142	731	512	219	355	368
38	Cleanup Hitter	0.67579	0.47242	14.3489	0.7772	320.517	731	494	237	334	373
39	Pigskin Index	0.69494	0.50592	13.1477	0.8636	259.115	731	508	223	342	334
40	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.72093	0.50211	13.0330	0.8680	257.333	731	527	204	357	354
41	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.70862	0.51046	13.1177	0.8955	260.862	731	518	213	366	351
42	Payne W/L	0.71546	0.46953	14.3937	-0.9110	321.141	731	523	208	339	383
43	Dave Congrove	0.69589	0.51318	13.6540	0.9330	285.481	730	508	222	370	351
44	Stephen Kerns	0.69357	0.50970	13.8720	0.9671	301.042	731	507	224	368	354
45	PI-Rate Bias	0.72367	0.50139	13.1141	0.9762	260.345	731	529	202	361	359
46	ESPN FPI	0.70999	0.47230	12.9626	1.1034	258.292	731	519	212	341	381
47	Massey Consensus	0.73324	0.48476	13.6057	1.1080	282.895	731	536	195	350	372
48	Born Power Index	0.69357	0.48686	13.4976	1.1577	275.804	731	507	224	352	371
49	Dunkel Index	0.68760	0.49690	13.4792	1.1920	278.069	653	449	204	321	325
50	Keeper	0.71939	0.52022	13.3789	1.1921	282.567	727	523	204	373	344
51	Super List	0.72093	0.49444	15.3232	1.3623	356.364	731	527	204	356	364
52	Stat Fox	0.69767	0.49133	13.3749	2.1465	272.564	731	510	221	340	352
53	Logistic Regression	0.68785	0.46240	15.5402	-2.4646	375.449	362	249	113	166	193
54	Loudsound.org	0.65465	0.47863	14.7601	-3.2510	342.776	721	472	249	336	366

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases