ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-09-12

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Line (updated)	0.75000	0.54000	12.5573	-0.0365	237.810	96	72	24	27	23
2	Edward Kambour	0.79167	0.49474	13.8525	-0.0662	279.221	96	76	20	47	48
3	ESPN FPI	0.71875	0.51579	12.7859	0.0916	243.390	96	69	27	49	46
4	Massey Consensus	0.73958	0.41053	14.1179	0.0931	294.658	96	71	25	39	56
5	Computer Adjusted Line	0.75000	0.49206	12.6250	-0.1146	239.495	96	72	24	31	32
6	Line (Midweek)	0.77083		12.5417	-0.1458	235.859	96	74	22
7	Payne Predict	0.73958	0.42105	13.2874	-0.2009	263.293	96	71	25	40	55
8	Dave Congrove	0.68750	0.46316	14.9535	0.2154	322.416	96	66	30	44	51
9	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.65625	0.42105	16.1992	-0.3546	434.350	96	63	33	40	55
10	Laz Index	0.78125	0.42105	13.5121	-0.3708	267.021	96	75	21	40	55
11	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.78125	0.53684	13.2844	0.5115	255.217	96	75	21	51	44
12	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.77083	0.52128	13.3937	0.6040	264.277	96	74	22	49	45
13	TeamRankings.com	0.75000	0.49474	12.8032	0.6136	249.431	96	72	24	47	48
14	Cleanup Hitter	0.70833	0.41935	15.1563	-0.6146	374.965	96	68	28	39	54
15	Stat Fox	0.73958	0.42391	13.9689	0.6564	294.536	96	71	25	39	53
16	Catherwood Ratings	0.76042	0.48352	14.1042	0.7083	281.036	96	73	23	44	47
17	Sagarin Recent	0.66667	0.41053	16.2041	-0.7857	432.113	96	64	32	39	56
18	System Median	0.75000	0.41053	13.3006	-0.7981	257.162	96	72	24	39	56
19	Stephen Kerns	0.68750	0.49474	14.4446	-0.8552	315.485	96	66	30	47	48
20	Payne Power Ratings	0.76042	0.43158	13.5858	-0.9227	274.928	96	73	23	41	54
21	Line (opening)	0.73958	0.49425	12.5885	-0.9323	242.952	96	71	25	43	44
22	Beck Elo	0.75000	0.49474	14.2828	-0.9420	309.348	96	72	24	47	48
23	David Harville	0.75000	0.44211	13.5959	-0.9784	266.164	96	72	24	42	53
24	Talisman Red	0.80000	0.48889	12.3940	-0.9864	224.624	45	36	9	22	23
25	PI-Rate Bias	0.79167	0.51064	13.2334	1.0520	258.112	96	76	20	48	46
26	Sagarin Ratings	0.66667	0.41053	14.4100	-1.0527	306.965	96	64	32	39	56
27	System Average	0.76042	0.38947	13.4580	-1.0547	263.575	96	73	23	37	58
28	Sagarin Points	0.66667	0.44211	14.3433	-1.2150	306.583	96	64	32	42	53
29	Versus Sports Simulator	0.76596	0.45161	12.8783	1.2391	238.972	94	72	22	42	51
30	Born Power Index	0.76042	0.47368	14.3781	1.2844	303.055	96	73	23	45	50
31	Dokter Entropy	0.73958	0.43158	13.8886	-1.3301	267.122	96	71	25	41	54
32	Pigskin Index	0.73958	0.58140	13.1980	1.4066	246.077	96	71	25	50	36
33	Super List	0.72917	0.49474	16.4452	1.6831	379.021	96	70	26	47	48
34	Keeper	0.73913	0.46154	13.7699	1.8686	277.539	92	68	24	42	49
35	Moore Power Ratings	0.72917	0.38947	14.1057	-2.1070	294.499	96	70	26	37	58
36	Massey Ratings	0.72917	0.49474	14.1204	-2.1646	306.081	96	70	26	47	48
37	Donchess Inference	0.75000	0.36559	14.5292	-2.4500	296.151	96	72	24	34	59
38	Laffaye RWP	0.73958	0.43478	14.4750	-2.6713	322.408	96	71	25	40	52
39	PerformanZ Ratings	0.70833	0.45263	15.1511	-2.7349	345.338	96	68	28	43	52
40	ARGH Power Ratings	0.75000	0.46809	14.8490	-3.0990	322.511	96	72	24	44	50
41	Billingsley	0.73958	0.41053	15.6042	-3.2365	367.678	96	71	25	39	56
42	DP Dwiggins	0.68750	0.50538	16.2917	-3.4583	393.917	96	66	30	47	46
43	Dunkel Index	0.66667	0.38889	17.7822	3.9300	415.301	18	12	6	7	11
44	Payne W/L	0.79167	0.41053	15.8964	-4.2559	379.212	96	76	20	39	56
45	Howell	0.68750	0.44681	15.1096	-4.2862	354.038	96	66	30	42	52
46	Daniel Curry Index	0.69792	0.43158	16.6061	-4.3930	448.610	96	67	29	41	54
47	Loudsound.org	0.48958	0.44211	17.8958	-6.5417	502.033	96	47	49	42	53
48	FEI Projections	0.62500	0.48421	18.4643	-7.6926	526.733	96	60	36	46	49
49	ThePowerRank.com	0.50000	0.50000	16.7000	-16.7000	141.405	2	1	1	1	1

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases