Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2021 Season Totals
Through 2022-01-11
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Massey Ratings | 0.69091 | 0.48289 | 13.4370 | -0.0081 | 276.138 | 770 | 532 | 238 | 367 | 393 |
2 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68961 | 0.46711 | 13.8791 | 0.1010 | 298.036 | 770 | 531 | 239 | 355 | 405 |
3 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.71688 | 0.50000 | 13.4558 | -0.1104 | 281.555 | 770 | 552 | 218 | 369 | 369 |
4 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.70390 | 0.46711 | 13.6009 | -0.1149 | 286.661 | 770 | 542 | 228 | 355 | 405 |
5 | Talisman Red | 0.68994 | 0.49081 | 13.3432 | 0.1340 | 271.022 | 716 | 494 | 222 | 347 | 360 |
6 | Howell | 0.70833 | 0.49389 | 13.5013 | -0.1457 | 282.844 | 768 | 544 | 224 | 364 | 373 |
7 | Billingsley | 0.71169 | 0.48221 | 13.8826 | 0.1543 | 304.154 | 770 | 548 | 222 | 366 | 393 |
8 | Laffaye RWP | 0.70141 | 0.50359 | 13.8664 | 0.2000 | 304.175 | 710 | 498 | 212 | 351 | 346 |
9 | Donchess Inference | 0.71688 | 0.47383 | 13.2899 | 0.2138 | 267.461 | 770 | 552 | 218 | 353 | 392 |
10 | Bihl System | 0.69324 | 0.49392 | 13.0753 | 0.2528 | 258.480 | 414 | 287 | 127 | 203 | 208 |
11 | Sagarin Points | 0.69221 | 0.45850 | 13.3517 | 0.2749 | 270.378 | 770 | 533 | 237 | 348 | 411 |
12 | Line (opening) | 0.70779 | 0.50000 | 12.7526 | 0.2760 | 251.696 | 770 | 545 | 225 | 337 | 337 |
13 | David Harville | 0.70390 | 0.45910 | 13.1467 | 0.2825 | 262.413 | 770 | 542 | 228 | 348 | 410 |
14 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.69091 | 0.44737 | 13.2541 | 0.2903 | 266.691 | 770 | 532 | 238 | 340 | 420 |
15 | DP Dwiggins | 0.69191 | 0.49589 | 13.9295 | 0.3133 | 304.002 | 766 | 530 | 236 | 362 | 368 |
16 | FEI Projections | 0.68277 | 0.50412 | 13.0317 | 0.3315 | 257.875 | 621 | 424 | 197 | 306 | 301 |
17 | Payne Predict | 0.69091 | 0.46316 | 13.8672 | 0.3339 | 301.146 | 770 | 532 | 238 | 352 | 408 |
18 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.68182 | 0.46711 | 13.5186 | 0.3441 | 283.960 | 770 | 525 | 245 | 355 | 405 |
19 | Line (updated) | 0.71818 | 0.50000 | 12.6247 | 0.4247 | 245.711 | 770 | 553 | 217 | 165 | 165 |
20 | Sagarin Recent | 0.69221 | 0.47895 | 13.5677 | 0.4317 | 292.251 | 770 | 533 | 237 | 364 | 396 |
21 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.71299 | 0.47674 | 12.6591 | 0.4734 | 246.306 | 770 | 549 | 221 | 205 | 225 |
22 | Line (Midweek) | 0.71169 | | 12.6429 | 0.4740 | 246.300 | 770 | 548 | 222 | | |
23 | Linear Regression | 0.69077 | 0.49747 | 13.1928 | 0.4825 | 267.460 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 197 | 199 |
24 | Dokter Entropy | 0.71651 | 0.45971 | 13.1405 | 0.5041 | 262.208 | 769 | 551 | 218 | 348 | 409 |
25 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.70909 | 0.47958 | 14.0244 | 0.5273 | 308.273 | 770 | 546 | 224 | 364 | 395 |
26 | Brent Craig | 0.70843 | 0.51942 | 13.0799 | 0.5354 | 263.541 | 415 | 294 | 121 | 214 | 198 |
27 | System Average | 0.70649 | 0.48617 | 12.9646 | 0.5539 | 255.949 | 770 | 544 | 226 | 369 | 390 |
28 | System Median | 0.70130 | 0.47410 | 12.9598 | 0.5655 | 255.160 | 770 | 540 | 230 | 357 | 396 |
29 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66584 | 0.51515 | 15.6582 | 0.6268 | 372.986 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 204 | 192 |
30 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.69221 | 0.48816 | 13.4232 | 0.6346 | 279.246 | 770 | 533 | 237 | 371 | 389 |
31 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.77027 | 0.50000 | 13.7432 | 0.6351 | 276.443 | 148 | 114 | 34 | 70 | 70 |
32 | Laz Index | 0.71429 | 0.48681 | 13.1609 | 0.6398 | 263.527 | 770 | 550 | 220 | 369 | 389 |
33 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.70143 | 0.46764 | 13.3260 | 0.6634 | 271.270 | 767 | 538 | 229 | 354 | 403 |
34 | Edward Kambour | 0.70909 | 0.48158 | 13.2806 | 0.6883 | 265.528 | 770 | 546 | 224 | 366 | 394 |
35 | Payne W/L | 0.71299 | 0.47625 | 14.3145 | -0.7173 | 318.431 | 770 | 549 | 221 | 361 | 397 |
36 | Roundtable | 0.69231 | 0.50198 | 13.6266 | 0.7186 | 293.881 | 533 | 369 | 164 | 253 | 251 |
37 | TeamRankings.com | 0.70390 | 0.48271 | 13.1130 | 0.7473 | 263.278 | 770 | 542 | 228 | 363 | 389 |
38 | Beck Elo | 0.69610 | 0.49474 | 13.4583 | 0.7619 | 284.370 | 770 | 536 | 234 | 376 | 384 |
39 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.66883 | 0.47312 | 14.3228 | 0.8333 | 319.305 | 770 | 515 | 255 | 352 | 392 |
40 | Pigskin Index | 0.68312 | 0.50211 | 13.1947 | 0.9822 | 262.218 | 770 | 526 | 244 | 357 | 354 |
41 | Dave Congrove | 0.68270 | 0.50528 | 13.7253 | 0.9936 | 288.525 | 769 | 525 | 244 | 383 | 375 |
42 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.70909 | 0.49398 | 13.1366 | 1.0153 | 261.875 | 770 | 546 | 224 | 369 | 378 |
43 | Stephen Kerns | 0.68831 | 0.50725 | 13.9070 | 1.0216 | 301.969 | 770 | 530 | 240 | 385 | 374 |
44 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.69870 | 0.50531 | 13.2049 | 1.0277 | 264.988 | 770 | 538 | 232 | 381 | 373 |
45 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.71039 | 0.49538 | 13.2086 | 1.1340 | 264.793 | 770 | 547 | 223 | 375 | 382 |
46 | ESPN FPI | 0.69870 | 0.46772 | 13.0218 | 1.1573 | 260.627 | 770 | 538 | 232 | 355 | 404 |
47 | Keeper | 0.71035 | 0.51531 | 13.4245 | 1.2305 | 283.635 | 763 | 542 | 221 | 387 | 364 |
48 | Massey Consensus | 0.72857 | 0.48748 | 13.5983 | 1.2433 | 283.608 | 770 | 561 | 209 | 370 | 389 |
49 | Born Power Index | 0.68442 | 0.48553 | 13.5410 | 1.2933 | 278.308 | 770 | 527 | 243 | 369 | 391 |
50 | Dunkel Index | 0.67630 | 0.49780 | 13.5055 | 1.3240 | 279.919 | 692 | 468 | 224 | 340 | 343 |
51 | Super List | 0.71299 | 0.49934 | 15.2931 | 1.5619 | 355.876 | 770 | 549 | 221 | 378 | 379 |
52 | Logistic Regression | 0.67830 | 0.47222 | 15.4058 | -2.1711 | 369.469 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 187 | 209 |
53 | Stat Fox | 0.68701 | 0.49038 | 13.4117 | 2.1963 | 274.644 | 770 | 529 | 241 | 357 | 371 |
54 | Loudsound.org | 0.65395 | 0.47962 | 14.7039 | -2.9618 | 340.061 | 760 | 497 | 263 | 353 | 383 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases