Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-09-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (updated)0.750000.5400012.5573-0.0365237.8109672242723
2Edward Kambour0.791670.4947413.8525-0.0662279.2219676204748
3ESPN FPI0.718750.5157912.78590.0916243.3909669274946
4Massey Consensus0.739580.4105314.11790.0931294.6589671253956
5Computer Adjusted Line0.750000.4920612.6250-0.1146239.4959672243132
6Line (Midweek)0.7708312.5417-0.1458235.859967422
7Payne Predict0.739580.4210513.2874-0.2009263.2939671254055
8Dave Congrove0.687500.4631614.95350.2154322.4169666304451
9Sagarin Golden Mean0.656250.4210516.1992-0.3546434.3509663334055
10Laz Index0.781250.4210513.5121-0.3708267.0219675214055
11Pi-Ratings Mean0.781250.5368413.28440.5115255.2179675215144
12Pi-Rate Ratings0.770830.5212813.39370.6040264.2779674224945
13TeamRankings.com0.750000.4947412.80320.6136249.4319672244748
14Cleanup Hitter0.708330.4193515.1563-0.6146374.9659668283954
15Stat Fox0.739580.4239113.96890.6564294.5369671253953
16Catherwood Ratings0.760420.4835214.10420.7083281.0369673234447
17Sagarin Recent0.666670.4105316.2041-0.7857432.1139664323956
18System Median0.750000.4105313.3006-0.7981257.1629672243956
19Stephen Kerns0.687500.4947414.4446-0.8552315.4859666304748
20Payne Power Ratings0.760420.4315813.5858-0.9227274.9289673234154
21Line (opening)0.739580.4942512.5885-0.9323242.9529671254344
22Beck Elo0.750000.4947414.2828-0.9420309.3489672244748
23David Harville0.750000.4421113.5959-0.9784266.1649672244253
24Talisman Red0.800000.4888912.3940-0.9864224.624453692223
25PI-Rate Bias0.791670.5106413.23341.0520258.1129676204846
26Sagarin Ratings0.666670.4105314.4100-1.0527306.9659664323956
27System Average0.760420.3894713.4580-1.0547263.5759673233758
28Sagarin Points0.666670.4421114.3433-1.2150306.5839664324253
29Versus Sports Simulator0.765960.4516112.87831.2391238.9729472224251
30Born Power Index0.760420.4736814.37811.2844303.0559673234550
31Dokter Entropy0.739580.4315813.8886-1.3301267.1229671254154
32Pigskin Index0.739580.5814013.19801.4066246.0779671255036
33Super List0.729170.4947416.44521.6831379.0219670264748
34Keeper0.739130.4615413.76991.8686277.5399268244249
35Moore Power Ratings0.729170.3894714.1057-2.1070294.4999670263758
36Massey Ratings0.729170.4947414.1204-2.1646306.0819670264748
37Donchess Inference0.750000.3655914.5292-2.4500296.1519672243459
38Laffaye RWP0.739580.4347814.4750-2.6713322.4089671254052
39PerformanZ Ratings0.708330.4526315.1511-2.7349345.3389668284352
40ARGH Power Ratings0.750000.4680914.8490-3.0990322.5119672244450
41Billingsley0.739580.4105315.6042-3.2365367.6789671253956
42DP Dwiggins0.687500.5053816.2917-3.4583393.9179666304746
43Dunkel Index0.666670.3888917.78223.9300415.30118126711
44Payne W/L0.791670.4105315.8964-4.2559379.2129676203956
45Howell0.687500.4468115.1096-4.2862354.0389666304252
46Daniel Curry Index0.697920.4315816.6061-4.3930448.6109667294154
47Loudsound.org0.489580.4421117.8958-6.5417502.0339647494253
48FEI Projections0.625000.4842118.4643-7.6926526.7339660364649
49ThePowerRank.com0.500000.5000016.7000-16.7000141.40521111
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases