Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2020 Season Totals

Through 2021-01-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ThePowerRank.com0.700000.5196113.3985-0.1203279.543520364156265245
2Laffaye RWP0.520000.4000016.0400-0.4800335.4322513121015
3Sagarin Golden Mean0.705990.4857113.74590.5010294.907534377157255270
4Sagarin Ratings0.719100.4800013.75090.6033294.669534384150252273
5Sagarin Points0.711610.4885913.79950.6217299.101534380154257269
6Pi-Ratings Mean0.707870.5383113.03310.6440264.111534378156281241
7Sagarin Recent0.713480.4904914.12440.7035308.036534381153258268
8Pi-Rate Ratings0.715360.5374313.12040.7209267.578534382152280241
9PI-Rate Bias0.717230.5193113.11230.7731266.643534383151269249
10Talisman Red0.712420.5133313.98400.7883304.77730621888154146
11Line (updated)0.715360.4940712.89510.8127256.044534382152125128
12Massey Ratings0.706440.5000013.64630.8526294.858528373155260260
13Computer Adjusted Line0.719100.5146212.88010.9007255.565534384150176166
14Line (Midweek)0.7191012.90170.9448257.308534384150
15Keeper0.732530.4908413.54250.9936282.388501367134241250
16Howell0.690980.5150913.50951.0740286.436521360161256241
17ESPN FPI0.734960.5124313.00501.1647262.246532391141268255
18Cleanup Hitter0.685010.4901614.58731.1965333.430527361166249259
19Moore Power Ratings0.695490.4914013.84411.2791293.824532370162257266
20Line (opening)0.691010.4825313.45511.2809282.935534369165221237
21TeamRankings.com0.731710.5165713.00771.3342264.054533390143265248
22System Median0.730340.4952013.04381.3908267.524534390144258263
23Edward Kambour0.694760.4847913.80631.3969296.234534371163255271
24System Average0.722850.4847913.07491.4282268.413534386148255271
25Daniel Curry Index0.704060.4774114.78301.4754356.645517364153243266
26David Harville0.728460.5171113.21281.5338276.121534389145272254
27Dave Congrove0.675420.5200014.47251.5965326.822533360173273252
28Donchess Inference0.745140.5260013.02331.6455268.716514383131263237
29Versus Sports Simulator0.722220.5009713.30901.6531278.888522377145257256
30Dokter Entropy0.731570.5202313.00521.6897269.282529387142270249
31FEI Projections0.726080.5115413.28661.6914281.170533387146266254
32ARGH Power Ratings0.715630.5483213.46371.7057291.007531380151278229
33Stephen Kerns0.746400.5177513.16401.7512281.06334725988175163
34Roundtable0.708680.4825614.60501.7983357.728357253104166178
35Laz Index0.689140.4981013.66361.8644290.701534368166262264
36PerformanZ Ratings0.711610.5276213.78061.9755301.128534380154277248
37Massey Consensus0.718050.5209913.49671.9934289.927532382150273251
38Super List0.699250.4828214.71082.0506331.095532372160253271
39Dunkel Index0.731900.4910513.63232.2680287.564511374137247256
40Loudsound.org0.659620.5252715.5285-2.2896386.431473312161239216
41Born Power Index0.726590.4885913.81042.3545302.635534388146257269
42Beck Elo0.713480.4847913.74342.3591294.619534381153255271
43Stat Fox0.704120.5147313.83713.0321300.028534376158262247
44Catherwood Ratings0.709740.4990313.91203.0805305.400534379155256257
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases