Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2017 Season Totals

Through 2018-01-09
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Laz Index0.729490.4783212.9295-0.0183267.210780569211364397
2Billingsley+0.719230.4809513.75860.0206307.652780561219366395
3Cleanup Hitter0.683330.4805414.6051-0.0216340.375780533247358387
4ThePowerRank.com0.733930.4973313.1130-0.0276276.542778571207372376
5DP Dwiggins0.717220.4898513.40360.0360286.578778558220362377
6ComPughter Ratings0.734460.5079812.9387-0.0584270.568772567205382370
7FEI Projections0.707820.5087713.4938-0.0617283.28824317271116112
8Dave Congrove0.726920.5124813.5219-0.0885296.489780567213390371
9Sagarin Recent0.712820.5092113.1485-0.1220277.826780556224387373
10Beck Elo0.697440.4835713.76940.1230300.236780544236368393
11Moore Power Ratings0.708230.4986813.20720.1592277.833778551227378380
12PerformanZ Ratings0.702560.5111713.95990.1603313.924780548232389372
13Computer Adjusted Line0.734620.5318812.28780.1699246.636780573207292257
14Line (updated)0.735900.5307712.27500.1763246.617780574206276244
15Sagarin Golden Mean0.724360.5125212.7176-0.1869262.586780565215389370
16System Median0.728210.4873212.63970.1919258.399780568212365384
17System Average0.732050.4881612.63460.1971258.260780571209371389
18Billingsley0.707690.4750013.8282-0.2159307.356780552228361399
19Sagarin Ratings0.721790.5348212.6038-0.2247257.640780563217407354
20Sagarin Points0.729490.5243112.5081-0.2262253.335780569211399362
21NutShell Sports0.691030.4779114.63600.2520341.971780539241357390
22Edward Kambour0.728220.4920013.1962-0.2558279.715769560209369381
23Donchess Inference0.723650.4960412.8079-0.2873264.827778563215376382
24Line (Midweek)0.7320512.31540.2987246.627780571209
25Lee Burdorf0.717780.5046613.39610.3271291.637776557219379372
26Atomic Football0.741980.4965612.6431-0.3350257.811779578201361366
27Brent Craig0.727270.4711913.06090.3614272.355605440165278312
28ARGH Power Ratings0.729140.4993213.2166-0.3630281.017779568211365366
29The Sports Cruncher0.737880.5319712.4591-0.3964255.997763563200391344
30Pigskin Index0.723080.4910812.83970.4016266.915780564216358371
31Bihl System0.701490.5109613.1642-0.4077283.271469329140233223
32Keeper0.739740.5046013.33530.4100289.443780577203384377
33Ashby AccuRatings0.742310.4993112.66400.4310259.612780579201362363
34Super List0.670510.4960514.92740.4521355.552780523257377383
35Line (opening)0.715380.5119212.40510.4526249.827780558222322307
36Born Power Index0.725640.5164312.97390.5393277.497780566214393368
37Pi-Ratings Mean0.734620.5026512.76520.5531262.567780573207379375
38Dokter Entropy0.729490.5000012.49160.5629253.181780569211380380
39Howell0.703850.4764513.5699-0.6108296.249780549231354389
40Laffaye RWP0.691030.4664914.2882-0.6331324.420780539241355406
41PI-Rate Bias0.721790.5039812.80110.6465264.341780563217380374
42ESPN FPI0.730770.5124812.41950.7077248.996780570210390371
43Talisman Red0.713910.4804313.5057-0.7093291.081762544218356385
44Pi-Rate Ratings0.720510.5078912.83030.7428266.536780562218386374
45Dunkel Index0.710600.4693613.98700.7832313.402736523213337381
46Stephen Kerns0.720050.5060413.65600.8164305.812768553215377368
47Daniel Curry Index0.708600.4881613.57590.8275299.339779552227371389
48TeamRankings.com0.735900.5145512.61870.8390253.192780574206389367
49Roundtable0.703210.4889313.3062-0.8677290.518529372157243254
50Massey Consensus0.669230.4862015.09570.8758353.202780522258370391
51Massey Ratings0.725640.4901413.3692-0.8905283.711780566214373388
52Catherwood Ratings0.716670.4896813.28081.0987281.307780559221356371
53Least Squares w/ HFA0.655460.4884415.4850-1.1590388.671357234123169177
54Payne Power Ratings0.714100.5236813.3639-1.2571289.047780557223398362
55Stat Fox0.715380.4741813.27441.4002279.755780558222349387
56Brent Craig 20.682820.4524914.10691.6418303.50222715572100121
57Linear Regression0.694680.5317912.7521-1.6586267.431357248109184162
58Marsee0.704370.4816313.97431.7866315.399778548230354381
59Liam Bressler0.712980.5164412.86772.0164266.247763544219377353
60Loudsound.org0.687170.5102914.2592-3.8246328.546764525239372357
61Logistic Regression0.666670.5346814.6741-4.0584359.438357238119185161
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases