Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Season Totals

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Billingsley0.718420.5189213.58350.0035299.722760546214384356
2Stephen Kerns0.705160.4872513.7344-0.0158293.368736519217344362
3Sportrends0.685160.5134714.33730.0255332.841667457210324307
4Massey Ratings0.703880.5079913.2848-0.0307282.541618435183286277
5NutShell Sports0.708440.5103414.00850.0378316.792758537221370355
6Least Squares w/ HFA0.666670.5322115.45410.0537375.347369246123190167
7PointShare0.655170.5089613.8665-0.0945302.334580380200284274
8MDS Model0.708210.5045213.89810.0988309.047682483199335329
9FEI Projections0.687750.5098313.77470.1225302.117759522237363349
10Covers.com0.698680.5286913.7098-0.2118303.723760531229387345
11Donchess Inference0.697890.5047513.46600.2313286.376758529229372365
12CPA Retro0.686840.4891914.21340.2496312.580760522238362378
13Laz Index0.709210.5108113.23910.2984276.767760539221378362
14Dave Congrove0.732890.4891913.75050.3377306.783760557203362378
15Payne Power Ratings0.728590.5162613.35950.3545282.559759553206381357
16Billingsley+0.731580.5216213.17330.3666279.161760556204386354
17NutShell Combo0.708620.5098413.44950.4232290.404580411169285274
18ThePowerRank.com0.704850.5034713.10380.4475274.416742523219363358
19CPA Rankings0.734210.5027013.22780.4700273.204760558202372368
20Linear Regression0.688350.5112413.5403-0.4773287.299369254115182174
21ComPughter Ratings0.708440.5027113.33540.4806280.579758537221371367
22Pigskin Index0.732890.5100312.96580.5319268.003760557203356342
23Nutshell Eye0.687930.5054313.54810.5517294.092580399181279273
24DirectorOfInformation0.726320.4973013.02800.5673271.395760552208368372
25Howell0.705800.5106713.64050.6208294.962758535223359344
26Pi-Ratings Mean0.717110.5382512.81050.6926260.100760545215394338
27Ashby AccuRatings0.728950.5072012.77900.7397260.553760554206352342
28PerformanZ Ratings0.698680.5027013.86220.7613302.269760531229372368
29Nutshell Girl0.711910.4800613.78950.8216306.373722514208337365
30System Average0.722370.5081312.85530.8323262.563760549211375363
31System Median0.730260.5151512.82450.8342261.095760555205374352
32Daniel Curry Index0.714100.4993214.31450.8363323.839759542217368369
33Beck Elo0.701280.4905113.73050.8736291.916703493210336349
34Lee Burdorf0.712400.4938813.65390.8791292.789758540218363372
35Thompson ATS0.736840.5067612.62680.9076253.703760560200375365
36Born Power Index0.711840.4973013.89170.9360302.254760541219368372
37Line (opening)0.720320.5225812.55470.9453251.703758546212324296
38PI-Rate Bias0.718420.5313412.93250.9499266.871760546214390344
39Super List0.690790.5331514.55720.9633335.618760525235394345
40ARGH Power Ratings0.721050.5028213.49511.0266285.106760548212357353
41Thompson Average0.731580.5027212.70091.0303256.739760556204370366
42Pi-Rate Ratings0.722370.5359612.95601.0500269.513760549211395342
43Massey Consensus0.726320.5189213.21871.0745277.300760552208384356
44Sagarin Points Elo0.725000.5061113.51981.0935289.009760551209373364
45Bihl System0.690830.4945113.49131.1259282.167469324145225230
46Atomic Football0.722370.5099712.89971.1315265.172760549211358344
47Randal Horobik0.734350.4780213.73601.1337291.875591434157261285
48Edward Kambour0.722300.5006913.32391.1352282.256749541208365364
49Thompson CAL0.739470.5081112.57491.1438251.332760562198376364
50Moore Power Ratings0.717310.4904913.68381.1843297.639757543214361375
51Sagarin Golden Mean0.726320.5027013.39051.2257281.650760552208372368
52Tempo Free Gridiron0.713620.5258913.6579-1.2368309.315646461185325293
53Computer Adjusted Line0.735530.5132312.50661.2500250.262760559201291276
54Line (Midweek)0.7326212.49731.2580252.051748548200
55Sagarin Ratings0.734210.4966213.07981.2648270.887760558202367372
56Dokter Entropy0.730260.4966212.77481.2805257.344760555205367372
57Line (updated)0.736840.5233512.47701.3191249.765760560200269245
58Sagarin Points0.728950.4857913.01631.3367271.817760554206359380
59Brent Craig0.703170.4816813.51861.3501284.228758533225355382
60Dunkel Index0.726550.5047513.58281.4209303.465757550207372365
61DP Dwiggins0.749350.4517913.67621.4726293.43038328796164199
62Laffaye RWP0.700000.5405413.8757-1.5578311.392760532228400340
63Catherwood Ratings0.720320.5014013.67811.5831296.065758546212357355
64Stat Fox0.728950.4943513.37111.8056285.530760554206350358
65Keeper0.711080.4850913.74012.0397291.578758539219358380
66Regression Based Analys0.724460.4784113.89162.3003309.165646468178288314
67Cleanup Hitter0.706720.5059014.17612.3361336.343699494205343335
68Marsee0.698680.4777813.99212.6526307.843760531229344376
69Logistic Regression0.685640.5546215.7456-2.8696389.856369253116198159
70Loudsound.org0.690770.5639713.5236-3.1740303.556401277124216167
71Brent Craig 20.730880.4781313.29414.5184281.04835325895164179
72Laffaye XWP0.692110.4782616.52096.7767425.075760526234352384
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases