Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Last Week

Through 2023-01-10
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1System Average0.619050.6585411.8624-0.9576263.3574226162714
2Talisman Red0.619050.6585411.7921-0.5493266.0594226162714
3Waywardtrends0.690480.6341511.6438-1.2486259.1504229132615
4Versus Sports Simulator0.619050.6341511.9095-0.3662271.8624226162615
5System Median0.619050.6341511.8533-1.0600263.5234226162615
6Keeper0.634150.6500011.21660.5961220.6204126152614
7Pi-Ratings Mean0.642860.6341512.0810-0.6762266.6934227152615
8Sagarin Points0.571430.6341511.8288-0.9998264.1234224182615
9PerformanZ Ratings0.595240.6097611.8736-0.4179242.4344225172516
10PI-Rate Bias0.619050.6097612.2288-0.4093264.3254226162516
11Laz Index0.571430.6097611.7760-0.9650264.5074224182516
12Sagarin Ratings0.619050.6097611.8360-1.2274264.2614226162516
13Linear Regression0.619050.6097611.8124-0.1338267.9454226162516
14Payne Predict0.619050.6097611.7355-0.8664283.3014226162516
15Stephen Kerns0.642860.6097611.3655-0.8940246.7484227152516
16DP Dwiggins0.571430.6578911.88100.0714267.7384224182513
17Sagarin Recent0.690480.6097611.8129-1.2805262.8144229132516
18TeamRankings.com0.642860.6000011.5643-0.7357259.9514227152416
19Pi-Rate Ratings0.666670.5853712.2095-0.7714269.6184228142417
20Donchess Inference0.571430.5853712.0095-1.4857259.4304224182417
21Stat Fox0.690480.6000011.6669-1.2374272.5944229132416
22Dave Congrove0.619050.5853712.0848-2.3629282.6884226162417
23Massey Ratings0.595240.5609812.4081-1.5595284.2974225172318
24Payne Power Ratings0.523810.5609812.4612-1.5850283.6724222202318
25FEI Projections0.571430.5365912.20500.0764260.6994224182219
26Dokter Entropy0.547620.5365912.0024-0.7848271.7794223192219
27Moore Power Ratings0.595240.5365912.5036-0.7512303.5544225172219
28Cleanup Hitter0.500000.5365913.1786-2.3210319.1814221212219
29Pigskin Index0.690480.5789512.1193-1.0236270.2384229132216
30ESPN FPI0.595240.5365911.6314-1.2129264.2994225172219
31David Harville0.619050.5365911.8800-0.7919271.1924226162219
32Edward Kambour0.666670.5365912.4590-0.1914272.2724228142219
33Sagarin Golden Mean0.571430.5122012.2471-1.3338278.3354224182120
34Catherwood Ratings0.738100.5675712.0476-0.8095275.6994231112116
35Logistic Regression0.500000.5122012.8690-2.3814312.1384221212120
36Daniel Curry Index0.731710.5250012.5902-1.0293275.9274130112119
37Born Power Index0.690480.5122012.6929-0.8786302.9624229132120
38Least Squares w/ HFA0.595240.5122012.93402.8545278.3874225172120
39Dunkel Index0.690480.4878012.5607-0.4536280.5394229132021
40Howell0.571430.5128212.8571-0.7143271.7854224182019
41Massey Consensus0.547620.4878012.7398-1.7383305.8984223192021
42Billingsley0.500000.4878012.7510-2.4162292.7334221212021
43Line (opening)0.595240.5714312.2857-1.6190270.6764225172015
44ARGH Power Ratings0.547620.4750012.4464-1.1250267.1534223191921
45Beck Elo0.595240.4871812.2888-1.6202283.2154225171920
46Computer Adjusted Line0.619050.6428612.0119-1.2262243.6134226161810
47Laffaye RWP0.547620.4390213.00691.1355284.4364223191823
48Payne W/L0.523810.4390212.9883-1.9721301.7274222201823
49Line (updated)0.619050.6800012.0357-1.2024239.245422616178
50Brent Craig0.666670.6666722.3433-10.6167841.23832121
51Line (Midweek)0.6428612.1667-1.4524247.795422715
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases