Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2022 Second Half Totals
Through 2023-01-10
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Waywardtrends | 0.66833 | 0.54798 | 12.4554 | 1.4761 | 263.560 | 401 | 268 | 133 | 217 | 179 |
2 | Massey Ratings | 0.68080 | 0.54408 | 12.4326 | 0.5710 | 259.567 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 216 | 181 |
3 | Talisman Red | 0.67581 | 0.53149 | 12.6589 | 0.6449 | 269.413 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 211 | 186 |
4 | Stephen Kerns | 0.68579 | 0.53046 | 12.6303 | 1.3528 | 267.524 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 209 | 185 |
5 | Laz Index | 0.67920 | 0.53046 | 12.5239 | 1.1060 | 258.874 | 399 | 271 | 128 | 209 | 185 |
6 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.66584 | 0.52141 | 13.6989 | 1.9048 | 305.681 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 207 | 190 |
7 | Sagarin Recent | 0.67830 | 0.52141 | 12.4430 | 0.3165 | 257.696 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 207 | 190 |
8 | Sagarin Points | 0.66584 | 0.51889 | 12.4593 | 0.3785 | 255.950 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 206 | 191 |
9 | ESPN FPI | 0.68579 | 0.51889 | 12.3418 | 1.5017 | 256.291 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 206 | 191 |
10 | Donchess Inference | 0.68080 | 0.52163 | 12.3888 | 1.2311 | 253.483 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 205 | 188 |
11 | David Harville | 0.67830 | 0.51899 | 12.3732 | 0.7194 | 258.638 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 205 | 190 |
12 | Keeper | 0.68750 | 0.51646 | 12.8292 | 2.1349 | 272.116 | 400 | 275 | 125 | 204 | 191 |
13 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.69077 | 0.51385 | 12.3537 | 0.3741 | 254.033 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 204 | 193 |
14 | Billingsley | 0.67332 | 0.51134 | 12.8153 | 1.1215 | 277.332 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 203 | 194 |
15 | Edward Kambour | 0.68329 | 0.51134 | 12.4024 | 0.9204 | 257.449 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 203 | 194 |
16 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68342 | 0.51523 | 12.8351 | 0.8798 | 277.612 | 398 | 272 | 126 | 203 | 191 |
17 | FEI Projections | 0.68579 | 0.51015 | 12.5154 | -1.2731 | 260.921 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 201 | 193 |
18 | Dave Congrove | 0.67830 | 0.50758 | 12.6351 | 1.2525 | 273.307 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 201 | 195 |
19 | Dunkel Index | 0.68687 | 0.51276 | 12.8034 | 1.4600 | 279.992 | 396 | 272 | 124 | 201 | 191 |
20 | System Median | 0.68329 | 0.50891 | 12.2863 | 1.0033 | 254.703 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 200 | 193 |
21 | Dokter Entropy | 0.68828 | 0.50253 | 12.3029 | 1.3881 | 253.666 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 199 | 197 |
22 | Payne W/L | 0.65087 | 0.50253 | 13.1545 | 0.6977 | 291.661 | 401 | 261 | 140 | 199 | 197 |
23 | Massey Consensus | 0.67581 | 0.49874 | 13.0219 | 1.7170 | 287.824 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 198 | 199 |
24 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.67830 | 0.49874 | 12.3747 | 0.5489 | 257.745 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 198 | 199 |
25 | Laffaye RWP | 0.67830 | 0.49622 | 12.8430 | 1.2225 | 277.720 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 197 | 200 |
26 | System Average | 0.67830 | 0.49495 | 12.3219 | 1.0654 | 255.928 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 196 | 200 |
27 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.67332 | 0.49370 | 12.8127 | 0.8145 | 277.013 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 196 | 201 |
28 | DP Dwiggins | 0.67500 | 0.51181 | 12.8200 | -0.3600 | 273.570 | 400 | 270 | 130 | 195 | 186 |
29 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.67332 | 0.49118 | 12.7174 | 1.0186 | 270.507 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 195 | 202 |
30 | Born Power Index | 0.67830 | 0.48866 | 12.7783 | 1.4112 | 275.438 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 194 | 203 |
31 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.70324 | 0.49361 | 12.3947 | 1.2003 | 261.324 | 401 | 282 | 119 | 193 | 198 |
32 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.69327 | 0.48608 | 12.4667 | 1.2967 | 262.545 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 192 | 203 |
33 | Pigskin Index | 0.68828 | 0.50928 | 12.5860 | 1.1550 | 268.728 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 192 | 185 |
34 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.70823 | 0.49100 | 12.3065 | 1.2143 | 257.356 | 401 | 284 | 117 | 191 | 198 |
35 | TeamRankings.com | 0.69077 | 0.48092 | 12.4025 | 0.7067 | 258.742 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 189 | 204 |
36 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.62095 | 0.48837 | 13.5960 | 0.9279 | 298.045 | 401 | 249 | 152 | 189 | 198 |
37 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.67082 | 0.47607 | 12.8968 | 0.7591 | 277.022 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 189 | 208 |
38 | Stat Fox | 0.67581 | 0.49606 | 12.7732 | 2.4193 | 275.892 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 189 | 192 |
39 | Payne Predict | 0.67332 | 0.47475 | 12.9410 | 1.0327 | 283.334 | 401 | 270 | 131 | 188 | 208 |
40 | Beck Elo | 0.67581 | 0.47583 | 12.7865 | 1.6138 | 278.086 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 187 | 206 |
41 | Logistic Regression | 0.64756 | 0.53623 | 14.2849 | -0.8567 | 362.924 | 349 | 226 | 123 | 185 | 160 |
42 | Howell | 0.68080 | 0.48670 | 13.0873 | 1.2844 | 287.375 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 183 | 193 |
43 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.66584 | 0.48148 | 12.7731 | 0.8953 | 272.858 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 182 | 196 |
44 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.67082 | 0.47721 | 12.9551 | 2.3965 | 283.654 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 178 | 195 |
45 | Loudsound.org | 0.68857 | 0.53659 | 12.7886 | -1.6800 | 271.466 | 350 | 241 | 109 | 176 | 152 |
46 | Brent Craig | 0.69722 | 0.48459 | 12.7496 | 1.7930 | 271.689 | 360 | 251 | 109 | 173 | 184 |
47 | Linear Regression | 0.68481 | 0.49565 | 12.8546 | 1.3205 | 278.097 | 349 | 239 | 110 | 171 | 174 |
48 | Line (opening) | 0.68080 | 0.51506 | 12.1858 | 0.9214 | 248.344 | 401 | 273 | 128 | 171 | 161 |
49 | Bihl System | 0.68802 | 0.47472 | 12.7996 | 1.0667 | 268.819 | 359 | 247 | 112 | 169 | 187 |
50 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66225 | 0.53512 | 14.3719 | 1.5603 | 327.602 | 302 | 200 | 102 | 160 | 139 |
51 | Roundtable | 0.69966 | 0.49825 | 12.7270 | 0.8498 | 267.250 | 293 | 205 | 88 | 142 | 143 |
52 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.68828 | 0.49780 | 12.1746 | 0.9401 | 246.707 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 113 | 114 |
53 | Line (updated) | 0.69077 | 0.48795 | 12.1696 | 0.9352 | 245.637 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 81 | 85 |
54 | Line (Midweek) | 0.68828 | | 12.1658 | 0.8865 | 246.572 | 401 | 276 | 125 | | |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases