Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2022 Season Totals
Through 2023-01-10
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Massey Ratings | 0.69716 | 0.53194 | 12.4786 | -0.0418 | 251.724 | 776 | 541 | 235 | 408 | 359 |
2 | Keeper | 0.69548 | 0.52480 | 13.1567 | 1.6739 | 279.270 | 775 | 539 | 236 | 402 | 364 |
3 | Talisman Red | 0.69201 | 0.52344 | 12.9252 | 0.2529 | 271.807 | 776 | 537 | 239 | 402 | 366 |
4 | Laz Index | 0.68863 | 0.51895 | 12.8401 | 0.4397 | 263.631 | 774 | 533 | 241 | 397 | 368 |
5 | Donchess Inference | 0.70103 | 0.52185 | 12.4516 | 0.4972 | 250.995 | 776 | 544 | 232 | 394 | 361 |
6 | Waywardtrends | 0.68428 | 0.51108 | 12.7776 | 0.8167 | 264.981 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 392 | 375 |
7 | David Harville | 0.69459 | 0.50914 | 12.4966 | 0.0855 | 253.125 | 776 | 539 | 237 | 390 | 376 |
8 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.70747 | 0.50651 | 12.4622 | -0.1380 | 249.689 | 776 | 549 | 227 | 389 | 379 |
9 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.68041 | 0.50651 | 12.5151 | -0.0336 | 253.531 | 776 | 528 | 248 | 389 | 379 |
10 | Dave Congrove | 0.68428 | 0.50717 | 12.9343 | 0.9805 | 267.934 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 389 | 378 |
11 | Sagarin Points | 0.68943 | 0.50392 | 12.5489 | -0.1454 | 253.307 | 776 | 535 | 241 | 386 | 380 |
12 | System Median | 0.69330 | 0.50859 | 12.3608 | 0.5109 | 246.750 | 776 | 538 | 238 | 385 | 372 |
13 | Billingsley | 0.66452 | 0.50261 | 13.4379 | 0.1611 | 292.406 | 775 | 515 | 260 | 385 | 381 |
14 | ESPN FPI | 0.70351 | 0.50526 | 12.2733 | 0.9943 | 244.335 | 769 | 541 | 228 | 384 | 376 |
15 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68564 | 0.50065 | 13.1672 | 0.7610 | 280.958 | 773 | 530 | 243 | 383 | 382 |
16 | System Average | 0.68814 | 0.49935 | 12.4338 | 0.5424 | 248.770 | 776 | 534 | 242 | 383 | 384 |
17 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.68814 | 0.49479 | 12.8681 | 0.2151 | 267.004 | 776 | 534 | 242 | 380 | 388 |
18 | Sagarin Recent | 0.69974 | 0.49153 | 12.6528 | -0.0329 | 257.407 | 776 | 543 | 233 | 377 | 390 |
19 | Dokter Entropy | 0.70361 | 0.49086 | 12.2791 | 1.0174 | 243.062 | 776 | 546 | 230 | 376 | 390 |
20 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.70232 | 0.49020 | 12.4605 | 1.0799 | 251.311 | 776 | 545 | 231 | 375 | 390 |
21 | Payne W/L | 0.65851 | 0.48956 | 13.5289 | -0.2410 | 295.208 | 776 | 511 | 265 | 375 | 391 |
22 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.71134 | 0.49211 | 12.4384 | 1.0485 | 251.072 | 776 | 552 | 224 | 374 | 386 |
23 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.66624 | 0.48568 | 14.0026 | 0.9886 | 310.134 | 776 | 517 | 259 | 373 | 395 |
24 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.71134 | 0.49208 | 12.3640 | 0.9370 | 246.959 | 776 | 552 | 224 | 373 | 385 |
25 | Edward Kambour | 0.68863 | 0.48564 | 12.6617 | 0.5814 | 259.395 | 774 | 533 | 241 | 372 | 394 |
26 | Stephen Kerns | 0.69072 | 0.48429 | 13.8967 | 0.7545 | 312.164 | 776 | 536 | 240 | 370 | 394 |
27 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.68000 | 0.48172 | 13.1106 | -0.0252 | 276.591 | 775 | 527 | 248 | 369 | 397 |
28 | Born Power Index | 0.69459 | 0.47917 | 13.0384 | 1.2843 | 276.156 | 776 | 539 | 237 | 368 | 400 |
29 | Beck Elo | 0.67784 | 0.48037 | 13.1371 | 0.8316 | 277.478 | 776 | 526 | 250 | 367 | 397 |
30 | TeamRankings.com | 0.70361 | 0.47895 | 12.3957 | 0.2530 | 249.400 | 776 | 546 | 230 | 364 | 396 |
31 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.69728 | 0.47582 | 12.7339 | 0.7699 | 262.842 | 773 | 539 | 234 | 364 | 401 |
32 | Stat Fox | 0.69010 | 0.49252 | 12.7449 | 2.0602 | 262.238 | 768 | 530 | 238 | 362 | 373 |
33 | Payne Predict | 0.68428 | 0.47320 | 13.1513 | 0.7929 | 278.935 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 362 | 403 |
34 | DP Dwiggins | 0.69290 | 0.48656 | 13.2723 | -0.9342 | 283.183 | 775 | 537 | 238 | 362 | 382 |
35 | Massey Consensus | 0.68170 | 0.47005 | 13.0411 | 1.4341 | 279.200 | 776 | 529 | 247 | 361 | 407 |
36 | Pigskin Index | 0.70232 | 0.48971 | 12.5657 | 1.0377 | 255.484 | 776 | 545 | 231 | 357 | 372 |
37 | Loudsound.org | 0.66435 | 0.51679 | 13.9540 | -3.3022 | 309.256 | 718 | 477 | 241 | 354 | 331 |
38 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.67526 | 0.47891 | 13.0938 | -0.0512 | 276.669 | 776 | 524 | 252 | 352 | 383 |
39 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.64820 | 0.46996 | 14.0045 | 0.5626 | 310.485 | 776 | 503 | 273 | 352 | 397 |
40 | Howell | 0.67655 | 0.47684 | 13.4124 | 0.2463 | 294.056 | 776 | 525 | 251 | 350 | 384 |
41 | Laffaye RWP | 0.68283 | 0.48039 | 13.5330 | -0.0155 | 291.424 | 722 | 493 | 229 | 343 | 371 |
42 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.67784 | 0.46143 | 13.2668 | 1.9858 | 281.530 | 776 | 526 | 250 | 341 | 398 |
43 | Dunkel Index | 0.69648 | 0.49631 | 13.0713 | 1.2361 | 279.665 | 682 | 475 | 207 | 336 | 341 |
44 | Brent Craig | 0.70330 | 0.45492 | 12.6782 | 1.2032 | 256.102 | 728 | 512 | 216 | 328 | 393 |
45 | Line (opening) | 0.70619 | 0.50779 | 12.0805 | 0.6617 | 236.294 | 776 | 548 | 228 | 326 | 316 |
46 | FEI Projections | 0.67572 | 0.49433 | 12.6622 | -1.6793 | 261.959 | 626 | 423 | 203 | 305 | 312 |
47 | Roundtable | 0.68340 | 0.50298 | 13.0444 | 0.5502 | 279.380 | 518 | 354 | 164 | 253 | 250 |
48 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.71392 | 0.46903 | 12.0921 | 0.5844 | 234.884 | 776 | 554 | 222 | 212 | 240 |
49 | Bihl System | 0.67317 | 0.48157 | 12.8694 | 0.7020 | 271.105 | 410 | 276 | 134 | 196 | 211 |
50 | Logistic Regression | 0.64756 | 0.53623 | 14.2849 | -0.8567 | 362.924 | 349 | 226 | 123 | 185 | 160 |
51 | Line (updated) | 0.71521 | 0.49280 | 12.0651 | 0.6012 | 233.847 | 776 | 555 | 221 | 171 | 176 |
52 | Linear Regression | 0.68481 | 0.49565 | 12.8546 | 1.3205 | 278.097 | 349 | 239 | 110 | 171 | 174 |
53 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66225 | 0.53512 | 14.3719 | 1.5603 | 327.602 | 302 | 200 | 102 | 160 | 139 |
54 | Line (Midweek) | 0.72036 | | 12.0599 | 0.5664 | 234.538 | 776 | 559 | 217 | | |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases