Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-09-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Pi-Ratings Mean0.781250.5368413.28440.5115255.2179675215144
2Pigskin Index0.739580.5814013.19801.4066246.0779671255036
3Pi-Rate Ratings0.770830.5212813.39370.6040264.2779674224945
4ESPN FPI0.718750.5157912.78590.0916243.3909669274946
5PI-Rate Bias0.791670.5106413.23341.0520258.1129676204846
6Edward Kambour0.791670.4947413.8525-0.0662279.2219676204748
7DP Dwiggins0.687500.5053816.2917-3.4583393.9179666304746
8Massey Ratings0.729170.4947414.1204-2.1646306.0819670264748
9Beck Elo0.750000.4947414.2828-0.9420309.3489672244748
10Super List0.729170.4947416.44521.6831379.0219670264748
11Stephen Kerns0.687500.4947414.4446-0.8552315.4859666304748
12TeamRankings.com0.750000.4947412.80320.6136249.4319672244748
13FEI Projections0.625000.4842118.4643-7.6926526.7339660364649
14Born Power Index0.760420.4736814.37811.2844303.0559673234550
15Catherwood Ratings0.760420.4835214.10420.7083281.0369673234447
16Dave Congrove0.687500.4631614.95350.2154322.4169666304451
17ARGH Power Ratings0.750000.4680914.8490-3.0990322.5119672244450
18PerformanZ Ratings0.708330.4526315.1511-2.7349345.3389668284352
19Line (opening)0.739580.4942512.5885-0.9323242.9529671254344
20Loudsound.org0.489580.4421117.8958-6.5417502.0339647494253
21Howell0.687500.4468115.1096-4.2862354.0389666304252
22Sagarin Points0.666670.4421114.3433-1.2150306.5839664324253
23Keeper0.739130.4615413.76991.8686277.5399268244249
24David Harville0.750000.4421113.5959-0.9784266.1649672244253
25Versus Sports Simulator0.765960.4516112.87831.2391238.9729472224251
26Dokter Entropy0.739580.4315813.8886-1.3301267.1229671254154
27Payne Power Ratings0.760420.4315813.5858-0.9227274.9289673234154
28Daniel Curry Index0.697920.4315816.6061-4.3930448.6109667294154
29Laffaye RWP0.739580.4347814.4750-2.6713322.4089671254052
30Laz Index0.781250.4210513.5121-0.3708267.0219675214055
31Payne Predict0.739580.4210513.2874-0.2009263.2939671254055
32Sagarin Golden Mean0.656250.4210516.1992-0.3546434.3509663334055
33Stat Fox0.739580.4239113.96890.6564294.5369671253953
34Payne W/L0.791670.4105315.8964-4.2559379.2129676203956
35Sagarin Recent0.666670.4105316.2041-0.7857432.1139664323956
36Sagarin Ratings0.666670.4105314.4100-1.0527306.9659664323956
37Cleanup Hitter0.708330.4193515.1563-0.6146374.9659668283954
38System Median0.750000.4105313.3006-0.7981257.1629672243956
39Billingsley0.739580.4105315.6042-3.2365367.6789671253956
40Massey Consensus0.739580.4105314.11790.0931294.6589671253956
41System Average0.760420.3894713.4580-1.0547263.5759673233758
42Moore Power Ratings0.729170.3894714.1057-2.1070294.4999670263758
43Donchess Inference0.750000.3655914.5292-2.4500296.1519672243459
44Computer Adjusted Line0.750000.4920612.6250-0.1146239.4959672243132
45Line (updated)0.750000.5400012.5573-0.0365237.8109672242723
46Talisman Red0.800000.4888912.3940-0.9864224.624453692223
47Dunkel Index0.666670.3888917.78223.9300415.30118126711
48ThePowerRank.com0.500000.5000016.7000-16.7000141.40521111
49Line (Midweek)0.7708312.5417-0.1458235.859967422
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases