Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2020 Season Totals

Through 2021-01-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Pi-Ratings Mean0.707870.5383113.03310.6440264.111534378156281241
2Pi-Rate Ratings0.715360.5374313.12040.7209267.578534382152280241
3ARGH Power Ratings0.715630.5483213.46371.7057291.007531380151278229
4PerformanZ Ratings0.711610.5276213.78061.9755301.128534380154277248
5Dave Congrove0.675420.5200014.47251.5965326.822533360173273252
6Massey Consensus0.718050.5209913.49671.9934289.927532382150273251
7David Harville0.728460.5171113.21281.5338276.121534389145272254
8Dokter Entropy0.731570.5202313.00521.6897269.282529387142270249
9PI-Rate Bias0.717230.5193113.11230.7731266.643534383151269249
10ESPN FPI0.734960.5124313.00501.1647262.246532391141268255
11FEI Projections0.726080.5115413.28661.6914281.170533387146266254
12ThePowerRank.com0.700000.5196113.3985-0.1203279.543520364156265245
13TeamRankings.com0.731710.5165713.00771.3342264.054533390143265248
14Donchess Inference0.745140.5260013.02331.6455268.716514383131263237
15Stat Fox0.704120.5147313.83713.0321300.028534376158262247
16Laz Index0.689140.4981013.66361.8644290.701534368166262264
17Massey Ratings0.706440.5000013.64630.8526294.858528373155260260
18Sagarin Recent0.713480.4904914.12440.7035308.036534381153258268
19System Median0.730340.4952013.04381.3908267.524534390144258263
20Born Power Index0.726590.4885913.81042.3545302.635534388146257269
21Sagarin Points0.711610.4885913.79950.6217299.101534380154257269
22Versus Sports Simulator0.722220.5009713.30901.6531278.888522377145257256
23Moore Power Ratings0.695490.4914013.84411.2791293.824532370162257266
24Catherwood Ratings0.709740.4990313.91203.0805305.400534379155256257
25Howell0.690980.5150913.50951.0740286.436521360161256241
26Beck Elo0.713480.4847913.74342.3591294.619534381153255271
27System Average0.722850.4847913.07491.4282268.413534386148255271
28Sagarin Golden Mean0.705990.4857113.74590.5010294.907534377157255270
29Edward Kambour0.694760.4847913.80631.3969296.234534371163255271
30Super List0.699250.4828214.71082.0506331.095532372160253271
31Sagarin Ratings0.719100.4800013.75090.6033294.669534384150252273
32Cleanup Hitter0.685010.4901614.58731.1965333.430527361166249259
33Dunkel Index0.731900.4910513.63232.2680287.564511374137247256
34Daniel Curry Index0.704060.4774114.78301.4754356.645517364153243266
35Keeper0.732530.4908413.54250.9936282.388501367134241250
36Loudsound.org0.659620.5252715.5285-2.2896386.431473312161239216
37Line (opening)0.691010.4825313.45511.2809282.935534369165221237
38Computer Adjusted Line0.719100.5146212.88010.9007255.565534384150176166
39Stephen Kerns0.746400.5177513.16401.7512281.06334725988175163
40Roundtable0.708680.4825614.60501.7983357.728357253104166178
41Talisman Red0.712420.5133313.98400.7883304.77730621888154146
42Line (updated)0.715360.4940712.89510.8127256.044534382152125128
43Laffaye RWP0.520000.4000016.0400-0.4800335.4322513121015
44Line (Midweek)0.7191012.90170.9448257.308534384150
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases