Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2017 Season Totals

Through 2018-01-09
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Sagarin Ratings0.721790.5348212.6038-0.2247257.640780563217407354
2Sagarin Points0.729490.5243112.5081-0.2262253.335780569211399362
3Payne Power Ratings0.714100.5236813.3639-1.2571289.047780557223398362
4Born Power Index0.725640.5164312.97390.5393277.497780566214393368
5The Sports Cruncher0.737880.5319712.4591-0.3964255.997763563200391344
6Dave Congrove0.726920.5124813.5219-0.0885296.489780567213390371
7ESPN FPI0.730770.5124812.41950.7077248.996780570210390371
8PerformanZ Ratings0.702560.5111713.95990.1603313.924780548232389372
9Sagarin Golden Mean0.724360.5125212.7176-0.1869262.586780565215389370
10TeamRankings.com0.735900.5145512.61870.8390253.192780574206389367
11Sagarin Recent0.712820.5092113.1485-0.1220277.826780556224387373
12Pi-Rate Ratings0.720510.5078912.83030.7428266.536780562218386374
13Keeper0.739740.5046013.33530.4100289.443780577203384377
14ComPughter Ratings0.734460.5079812.9387-0.0584270.568772567205382370
15Dokter Entropy0.729490.5000012.49160.5629253.181780569211380380
16PI-Rate Bias0.721790.5039812.80110.6465264.341780563217380374
17Lee Burdorf0.717780.5046613.39610.3271291.637776557219379372
18Pi-Ratings Mean0.734620.5026512.76520.5531262.567780573207379375
19Moore Power Ratings0.708230.4986813.20720.1592277.833778551227378380
20Liam Bressler0.712980.5164412.86772.0164266.247763544219377353
21Stephen Kerns0.720050.5060413.65600.8164305.812768553215377368
22Super List0.670510.4960514.92740.4521355.552780523257377383
23Donchess Inference0.723650.4960412.8079-0.2873264.827778563215376382
24Massey Ratings0.725640.4901413.3692-0.8905283.711780566214373388
25Loudsound.org0.687170.5102914.2592-3.8246328.546764525239372357
26ThePowerRank.com0.733930.4973313.1130-0.0276276.542778571207372376
27System Average0.732050.4881612.63460.1971258.260780571209371389
28Daniel Curry Index0.708600.4881613.57590.8275299.339779552227371389
29Massey Consensus0.669230.4862015.09570.8758353.202780522258370391
30Edward Kambour0.728220.4920013.1962-0.2558279.715769560209369381
31Beck Elo0.697440.4835713.76940.1230300.236780544236368393
32Billingsley+0.719230.4809513.75860.0206307.652780561219366395
33ARGH Power Ratings0.729140.4993213.2166-0.3630281.017779568211365366
34System Median0.728210.4873212.63970.1919258.399780568212365384
35Laz Index0.729490.4783212.9295-0.0183267.210780569211364397
36DP Dwiggins0.717220.4898513.40360.0360286.578778558220362377
37Ashby AccuRatings0.742310.4993112.66400.4310259.612780579201362363
38Billingsley0.707690.4750013.8282-0.2159307.356780552228361399
39Atomic Football0.741980.4965612.6431-0.3350257.811779578201361366
40Cleanup Hitter0.683330.4805414.6051-0.0216340.375780533247358387
41Pigskin Index0.723080.4910812.83970.4016266.915780564216358371
42NutShell Sports0.691030.4779114.63600.2520341.971780539241357390
43Talisman Red0.713910.4804313.5057-0.7093291.081762544218356385
44Catherwood Ratings0.716670.4896813.28081.0987281.307780559221356371
45Laffaye RWP0.691030.4664914.2882-0.6331324.420780539241355406
46Howell0.703850.4764513.5699-0.6108296.249780549231354389
47Marsee0.704370.4816313.97431.7866315.399778548230354381
48Stat Fox0.715380.4741813.27441.4002279.755780558222349387
49Dunkel Index0.710600.4693613.98700.7832313.402736523213337381
50Line (opening)0.715380.5119212.40510.4526249.827780558222322307
51Computer Adjusted Line0.734620.5318812.28780.1699246.636780573207292257
52Brent Craig0.727270.4711913.06090.3614272.355605440165278312
53Line (updated)0.735900.5307712.27500.1763246.617780574206276244
54Roundtable0.703210.4889313.3062-0.8677290.518529372157243254
55Bihl System0.701490.5109613.1642-0.4077283.271469329140233223
56Logistic Regression0.666670.5346814.6741-4.0584359.438357238119185161
57Linear Regression0.694680.5317912.7521-1.6586267.431357248109184162
58Least Squares w/ HFA0.655460.4884415.4850-1.1590388.671357234123169177
59FEI Projections0.707820.5087713.4938-0.0617283.28824317271116112
60Brent Craig 20.682820.4524914.10691.6418303.50222715572100121
61Line (Midweek)0.7320512.31540.2987246.627780571209
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases