ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2017 Season Totals

Through 2018-01-09

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Sagarin Ratings	0.72179	0.53482	12.6038	-0.2247	257.640	780	563	217	407	354
2	Sagarin Points	0.72949	0.52431	12.5081	-0.2262	253.335	780	569	211	399	362
3	Payne Power Ratings	0.71410	0.52368	13.3639	-1.2571	289.047	780	557	223	398	362
4	Born Power Index	0.72564	0.51643	12.9739	0.5393	277.497	780	566	214	393	368
5	The Sports Cruncher	0.73788	0.53197	12.4591	-0.3964	255.997	763	563	200	391	344
6	Dave Congrove	0.72692	0.51248	13.5219	-0.0885	296.489	780	567	213	390	371
7	ESPN FPI	0.73077	0.51248	12.4195	0.7077	248.996	780	570	210	390	371
8	PerformanZ Ratings	0.70256	0.51117	13.9599	0.1603	313.924	780	548	232	389	372
9	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.72436	0.51252	12.7176	-0.1869	262.586	780	565	215	389	370
10	TeamRankings.com	0.73590	0.51455	12.6187	0.8390	253.192	780	574	206	389	367
11	Sagarin Recent	0.71282	0.50921	13.1485	-0.1220	277.826	780	556	224	387	373
12	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.72051	0.50789	12.8303	0.7428	266.536	780	562	218	386	374
13	Keeper	0.73974	0.50460	13.3353	0.4100	289.443	780	577	203	384	377
14	ComPughter Ratings	0.73446	0.50798	12.9387	-0.0584	270.568	772	567	205	382	370
15	Dokter Entropy	0.72949	0.50000	12.4916	0.5629	253.181	780	569	211	380	380
16	PI-Rate Bias	0.72179	0.50398	12.8011	0.6465	264.341	780	563	217	380	374
17	Lee Burdorf	0.71778	0.50466	13.3961	0.3271	291.637	776	557	219	379	372
18	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.73462	0.50265	12.7652	0.5531	262.567	780	573	207	379	375
19	Moore Power Ratings	0.70823	0.49868	13.2072	0.1592	277.833	778	551	227	378	380
20	Liam Bressler	0.71298	0.51644	12.8677	2.0164	266.247	763	544	219	377	353
21	Stephen Kerns	0.72005	0.50604	13.6560	0.8164	305.812	768	553	215	377	368
22	Super List	0.67051	0.49605	14.9274	0.4521	355.552	780	523	257	377	383
23	Donchess Inference	0.72365	0.49604	12.8079	-0.2873	264.827	778	563	215	376	382
24	Massey Ratings	0.72564	0.49014	13.3692	-0.8905	283.711	780	566	214	373	388
25	Loudsound.org	0.68717	0.51029	14.2592	-3.8246	328.546	764	525	239	372	357
26	ThePowerRank.com	0.73393	0.49733	13.1130	-0.0276	276.542	778	571	207	372	376
27	System Average	0.73205	0.48816	12.6346	0.1971	258.260	780	571	209	371	389
28	Daniel Curry Index	0.70860	0.48816	13.5759	0.8275	299.339	779	552	227	371	389
29	Massey Consensus	0.66923	0.48620	15.0957	0.8758	353.202	780	522	258	370	391
30	Edward Kambour	0.72822	0.49200	13.1962	-0.2558	279.715	769	560	209	369	381
31	Beck Elo	0.69744	0.48357	13.7694	0.1230	300.236	780	544	236	368	393
32	Billingsley+	0.71923	0.48095	13.7586	0.0206	307.652	780	561	219	366	395
33	ARGH Power Ratings	0.72914	0.49932	13.2166	-0.3630	281.017	779	568	211	365	366
34	System Median	0.72821	0.48732	12.6397	0.1919	258.399	780	568	212	365	384
35	Laz Index	0.72949	0.47832	12.9295	-0.0183	267.210	780	569	211	364	397
36	DP Dwiggins	0.71722	0.48985	13.4036	0.0360	286.578	778	558	220	362	377
37	Ashby AccuRatings	0.74231	0.49931	12.6640	0.4310	259.612	780	579	201	362	363
38	Billingsley	0.70769	0.47500	13.8282	-0.2159	307.356	780	552	228	361	399
39	Atomic Football	0.74198	0.49656	12.6431	-0.3350	257.811	779	578	201	361	366
40	Cleanup Hitter	0.68333	0.48054	14.6051	-0.0216	340.375	780	533	247	358	387
41	Pigskin Index	0.72308	0.49108	12.8397	0.4016	266.915	780	564	216	358	371
42	NutShell Sports	0.69103	0.47791	14.6360	0.2520	341.971	780	539	241	357	390
43	Talisman Red	0.71391	0.48043	13.5057	-0.7093	291.081	762	544	218	356	385
44	Catherwood Ratings	0.71667	0.48968	13.2808	1.0987	281.307	780	559	221	356	371
45	Laffaye RWP	0.69103	0.46649	14.2882	-0.6331	324.420	780	539	241	355	406
46	Howell	0.70385	0.47645	13.5699	-0.6108	296.249	780	549	231	354	389
47	Marsee	0.70437	0.48163	13.9743	1.7866	315.399	778	548	230	354	381
48	Stat Fox	0.71538	0.47418	13.2744	1.4002	279.755	780	558	222	349	387
49	Dunkel Index	0.71060	0.46936	13.9870	0.7832	313.402	736	523	213	337	381
50	Line (opening)	0.71538	0.51192	12.4051	0.4526	249.827	780	558	222	322	307
51	Computer Adjusted Line	0.73462	0.53188	12.2878	0.1699	246.636	780	573	207	292	257
52	Brent Craig	0.72727	0.47119	13.0609	0.3614	272.355	605	440	165	278	312
53	Line (updated)	0.73590	0.53077	12.2750	0.1763	246.617	780	574	206	276	244
54	Roundtable	0.70321	0.48893	13.3062	-0.8677	290.518	529	372	157	243	254
55	Bihl System	0.70149	0.51096	13.1642	-0.4077	283.271	469	329	140	233	223
56	Logistic Regression	0.66667	0.53468	14.6741	-4.0584	359.438	357	238	119	185	161
57	Linear Regression	0.69468	0.53179	12.7521	-1.6586	267.431	357	248	109	184	162
58	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.65546	0.48844	15.4850	-1.1590	388.671	357	234	123	169	177
59	FEI Projections	0.70782	0.50877	13.4938	-0.0617	283.288	243	172	71	116	112
60	Brent Craig 2	0.68282	0.45249	14.1069	1.6418	303.502	227	155	72	100	121
61	Line (Midweek)	0.73205		12.3154	0.2987	246.627	780	571	209

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases