Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2022 Last Week
Through 2023-01-10
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Line (Midweek) | 0.64286 | | 12.1667 | -1.4524 | 247.795 | 42 | 27 | 15 | | |
2 | Brent Craig | 0.66667 | 0.66667 | 22.3433 | -10.6167 | 841.238 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
3 | Line (updated) | 0.61905 | 0.68000 | 12.0357 | -1.2024 | 239.245 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 17 | 8 |
4 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.61905 | 0.64286 | 12.0119 | -1.2262 | 243.613 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 18 | 10 |
5 | DP Dwiggins | 0.57143 | 0.65789 | 11.8810 | 0.0714 | 267.738 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 25 | 13 |
6 | Talisman Red | 0.61905 | 0.65854 | 11.7921 | -0.5493 | 266.059 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 27 | 14 |
7 | System Average | 0.61905 | 0.65854 | 11.8624 | -0.9576 | 263.357 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 27 | 14 |
8 | Keeper | 0.63415 | 0.65000 | 11.2166 | 0.5961 | 220.620 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 26 | 14 |
9 | System Median | 0.61905 | 0.63415 | 11.8533 | -1.0600 | 263.523 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 26 | 15 |
10 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.64286 | 0.63415 | 12.0810 | -0.6762 | 266.693 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 26 | 15 |
11 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.61905 | 0.63415 | 11.9095 | -0.3662 | 271.862 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 26 | 15 |
12 | Line (opening) | 0.59524 | 0.57143 | 12.2857 | -1.6190 | 270.676 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
13 | Sagarin Points | 0.57143 | 0.63415 | 11.8288 | -0.9998 | 264.123 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 26 | 15 |
14 | Waywardtrends | 0.69048 | 0.63415 | 11.6438 | -1.2486 | 259.150 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 26 | 15 |
15 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.61905 | 0.60976 | 12.2288 | -0.4093 | 264.325 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 16 |
16 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.59524 | 0.60976 | 11.8736 | -0.4179 | 242.434 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
17 | Laz Index | 0.57143 | 0.60976 | 11.7760 | -0.9650 | 264.507 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 25 | 16 |
18 | Linear Regression | 0.61905 | 0.60976 | 11.8124 | -0.1338 | 267.945 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 16 |
19 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.73810 | 0.56757 | 12.0476 | -0.8095 | 275.699 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 21 | 16 |
20 | Payne Predict | 0.61905 | 0.60976 | 11.7355 | -0.8664 | 283.301 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 16 |
21 | Stat Fox | 0.69048 | 0.60000 | 11.6669 | -1.2374 | 272.594 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 24 | 16 |
22 | TeamRankings.com | 0.64286 | 0.60000 | 11.5643 | -0.7357 | 259.951 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 24 | 16 |
23 | Stephen Kerns | 0.64286 | 0.60976 | 11.3655 | -0.8940 | 246.748 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 25 | 16 |
24 | Sagarin Recent | 0.69048 | 0.60976 | 11.8129 | -1.2805 | 262.814 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 25 | 16 |
25 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.61905 | 0.60976 | 11.8360 | -1.2274 | 264.261 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 16 |
26 | Pigskin Index | 0.69048 | 0.57895 | 12.1193 | -1.0236 | 270.238 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 22 | 16 |
27 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.66667 | 0.58537 | 12.2095 | -0.7714 | 269.618 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 24 | 17 |
28 | Donchess Inference | 0.57143 | 0.58537 | 12.0095 | -1.4857 | 259.430 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 24 | 17 |
29 | Dave Congrove | 0.61905 | 0.58537 | 12.0848 | -2.3629 | 282.688 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 24 | 17 |
30 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.52381 | 0.56098 | 12.4612 | -1.5850 | 283.672 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 23 | 18 |
31 | Massey Ratings | 0.59524 | 0.56098 | 12.4081 | -1.5595 | 284.297 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 23 | 18 |
32 | FEI Projections | 0.57143 | 0.53659 | 12.2050 | 0.0764 | 260.699 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 22 | 19 |
33 | Dokter Entropy | 0.54762 | 0.53659 | 12.0024 | -0.7848 | 271.779 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 22 | 19 |
34 | Howell | 0.57143 | 0.51282 | 12.8571 | -0.7143 | 271.785 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 20 | 19 |
35 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.50000 | 0.53659 | 13.1786 | -2.3210 | 319.181 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 19 |
36 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.59524 | 0.53659 | 12.5036 | -0.7512 | 303.554 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 22 | 19 |
37 | ESPN FPI | 0.59524 | 0.53659 | 11.6314 | -1.2129 | 264.299 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 22 | 19 |
38 | David Harville | 0.61905 | 0.53659 | 11.8800 | -0.7919 | 271.192 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 22 | 19 |
39 | Edward Kambour | 0.66667 | 0.53659 | 12.4590 | -0.1914 | 272.272 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 22 | 19 |
40 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.73171 | 0.52500 | 12.5902 | -1.0293 | 275.927 | 41 | 30 | 11 | 21 | 19 |
41 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.59524 | 0.51220 | 12.9340 | 2.8545 | 278.387 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 21 | 20 |
42 | Beck Elo | 0.59524 | 0.48718 | 12.2888 | -1.6202 | 283.215 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
43 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.57143 | 0.51220 | 12.2471 | -1.3338 | 278.335 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 21 | 20 |
44 | Born Power Index | 0.69048 | 0.51220 | 12.6929 | -0.8786 | 302.962 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 21 | 20 |
45 | Logistic Regression | 0.50000 | 0.51220 | 12.8690 | -2.3814 | 312.138 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 |
46 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.54762 | 0.47500 | 12.4464 | -1.1250 | 267.153 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 19 | 21 |
47 | Massey Consensus | 0.54762 | 0.48780 | 12.7398 | -1.7383 | 305.898 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
48 | Dunkel Index | 0.69048 | 0.48780 | 12.5607 | -0.4536 | 280.539 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 20 | 21 |
49 | Billingsley | 0.50000 | 0.48780 | 12.7510 | -2.4162 | 292.733 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 21 |
50 | Laffaye RWP | 0.54762 | 0.43902 | 13.0069 | 1.1355 | 284.436 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 18 | 23 |
51 | Payne W/L | 0.52381 | 0.43902 | 12.9883 | -1.9721 | 301.727 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 23 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases