Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Last Week

Through 2023-01-10
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.6428612.1667-1.4524247.795422715
2Brent Craig0.666670.6666722.3433-10.6167841.23832121
3Line (updated)0.619050.6800012.0357-1.2024239.245422616178
4Computer Adjusted Line0.619050.6428612.0119-1.2262243.6134226161810
5DP Dwiggins0.571430.6578911.88100.0714267.7384224182513
6Talisman Red0.619050.6585411.7921-0.5493266.0594226162714
7System Average0.619050.6585411.8624-0.9576263.3574226162714
8Keeper0.634150.6500011.21660.5961220.6204126152614
9System Median0.619050.6341511.8533-1.0600263.5234226162615
10Pi-Ratings Mean0.642860.6341512.0810-0.6762266.6934227152615
11Versus Sports Simulator0.619050.6341511.9095-0.3662271.8624226162615
12Line (opening)0.595240.5714312.2857-1.6190270.6764225172015
13Sagarin Points0.571430.6341511.8288-0.9998264.1234224182615
14Waywardtrends0.690480.6341511.6438-1.2486259.1504229132615
15PI-Rate Bias0.619050.6097612.2288-0.4093264.3254226162516
16PerformanZ Ratings0.595240.6097611.8736-0.4179242.4344225172516
17Laz Index0.571430.6097611.7760-0.9650264.5074224182516
18Linear Regression0.619050.6097611.8124-0.1338267.9454226162516
19Catherwood Ratings0.738100.5675712.0476-0.8095275.6994231112116
20Payne Predict0.619050.6097611.7355-0.8664283.3014226162516
21Stat Fox0.690480.6000011.6669-1.2374272.5944229132416
22TeamRankings.com0.642860.6000011.5643-0.7357259.9514227152416
23Stephen Kerns0.642860.6097611.3655-0.8940246.7484227152516
24Sagarin Recent0.690480.6097611.8129-1.2805262.8144229132516
25Sagarin Ratings0.619050.6097611.8360-1.2274264.2614226162516
26Pigskin Index0.690480.5789512.1193-1.0236270.2384229132216
27Pi-Rate Ratings0.666670.5853712.2095-0.7714269.6184228142417
28Donchess Inference0.571430.5853712.0095-1.4857259.4304224182417
29Dave Congrove0.619050.5853712.0848-2.3629282.6884226162417
30Payne Power Ratings0.523810.5609812.4612-1.5850283.6724222202318
31Massey Ratings0.595240.5609812.4081-1.5595284.2974225172318
32FEI Projections0.571430.5365912.20500.0764260.6994224182219
33Dokter Entropy0.547620.5365912.0024-0.7848271.7794223192219
34Howell0.571430.5128212.8571-0.7143271.7854224182019
35Cleanup Hitter0.500000.5365913.1786-2.3210319.1814221212219
36Moore Power Ratings0.595240.5365912.5036-0.7512303.5544225172219
37ESPN FPI0.595240.5365911.6314-1.2129264.2994225172219
38David Harville0.619050.5365911.8800-0.7919271.1924226162219
39Edward Kambour0.666670.5365912.4590-0.1914272.2724228142219
40Daniel Curry Index0.731710.5250012.5902-1.0293275.9274130112119
41Least Squares w/ HFA0.595240.5122012.93402.8545278.3874225172120
42Beck Elo0.595240.4871812.2888-1.6202283.2154225171920
43Sagarin Golden Mean0.571430.5122012.2471-1.3338278.3354224182120
44Born Power Index0.690480.5122012.6929-0.8786302.9624229132120
45Logistic Regression0.500000.5122012.8690-2.3814312.1384221212120
46ARGH Power Ratings0.547620.4750012.4464-1.1250267.1534223191921
47Massey Consensus0.547620.4878012.7398-1.7383305.8984223192021
48Dunkel Index0.690480.4878012.5607-0.4536280.5394229132021
49Billingsley0.500000.4878012.7510-2.4162292.7334221212021
50Laffaye RWP0.547620.4390213.00691.1355284.4364223191823
51Payne W/L0.523810.4390212.9883-1.9721301.7274222201823
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases