Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Last Week

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.5128213.41030.4359269.111392019
2Loudsound.org0.523810.7500012.4757-0.3805261.703211110155
3Regression Based Analys0.608700.5909112.52170.5217247.72723149139
4ARGH Power Ratings0.538460.6756812.6923-0.0769262.7343921182512
5Ashby AccuRatings0.615380.6578912.6408-0.0756264.1803924152513
6Tempo Free Gridiron0.434780.4090914.0000-3.4783301.735231013913
7Line (updated)0.487180.3157913.57690.3718273.426391920613
8Computer Adjusted Line0.487180.4090913.50000.3205270.773391920913
9MDS Model0.631580.6315812.1587-1.9713251.3983824142414
10Sportrends0.540540.5882413.29730.4595287.8463720172014
11Sagarin Ratings0.512820.6410313.18590.8362263.9663920192514
12Laz Index0.487180.6410313.0221-0.2231266.1253919202514
13Moore Power Ratings0.564100.6410313.09000.1459264.6683922172514
14Massey Consensus0.564100.6410312.8485-0.7105264.4583922172514
15Howell0.605260.6000012.6047-1.2363257.1723823152114
16System Average0.487180.6153813.03210.1736259.6183919202415
17Covers.com0.487180.5945913.2118-1.3005283.1153919202215
18Thompson ATS0.487180.6153813.28210.4872264.4693919202415
19Atomic Football0.461540.5588213.2821-0.5641275.8383918211915
20Super List0.538460.6153813.00030.6449262.4853921182415
21System Median0.512820.6052612.97180.0744257.1703920192315
22Massey Ratings0.564100.5588213.1282-0.0513268.1023922171915
23Sagarin Golden Mean0.512820.5897413.33511.7751287.8263920192316
24Linear Regression0.538460.5789513.23921.6900269.8323921182216
25Bihl System0.578950.5789512.8295-0.2042252.1643822162216
26Thompson CAL0.487180.5897413.33850.5436263.3403919202316
27Thompson Average0.487180.5897413.22950.4505260.9603919202316
28Cleanup Hitter0.487180.5897413.0541-0.6228266.6193919202316
29Beck Elo0.589740.5897413.26360.2195256.5723923162316
30NutShell Combo0.564100.5641013.4723-0.9518271.5043922172217
31ComPughter Ratings0.512820.5641013.66000.3846298.9713920192217
32Stat Fox0.538460.5000012.94950.5392262.4893921181717
33Stephen Kerns0.487180.5641012.6385-0.1256255.1373919202217
34PerformanZ Ratings0.512820.5641013.06260.2944269.7643920192217
35Born Power Index0.512820.5641012.71051.1515253.9453920192217
36NutShell Sports0.538460.5641013.2231-1.3513261.1813921182217
37ThePowerRank.com0.538460.5526313.1438-0.5331271.8153921182117
38Dokter Entropy0.435900.5641013.17000.0264257.6243917222217
39Nutshell Girl0.512820.5384614.3433-1.2644350.0443920192118
40Pi-Ratings Mean0.487180.5263213.51510.8900266.7993919202018
41Dave Congrove0.615380.5384613.1364-0.9210284.6073924152118
42Payne Power Ratings0.615380.5384613.0490-0.6567265.3223924152118
43Line (opening)0.410260.4705913.55130.1154275.0963916231618
44Sagarin Points0.538460.5384613.10150.9138263.9563921182118
45Donchess Inference0.538460.5384613.26180.3136267.6063921182118
46Laffaye RWP0.564100.5384613.2364-1.2733280.1663922172118
47Sagarin Points Elo0.666670.5384613.3921-0.5279271.6203926132118
48Billingsley+0.487180.5128213.4495-1.1674276.5383919202019
49Keeper0.552630.5000012.8163-0.2295243.3213821171919
50Logistic Regression0.615380.5128214.0295-1.0356309.5573924152019
51Nutshell Eye0.538460.5128213.7092-1.8564289.0673921182019
52Daniel Curry Index0.589740.5128212.9385-0.2205244.6733923162019
53PI-Rate Bias0.487180.5000013.38181.4997273.2463919201919
54FEI Projections0.538460.4722214.0256-1.5128297.2493921181719
55Pigskin Index0.589740.4864913.0518-0.5892264.7393923161819
56Billingsley0.512820.4871813.6244-1.5567299.1083920191920
57CPA Retro0.512820.4871813.16560.5846270.6503920191920
58Edward Kambour0.564100.4871813.37150.6726278.0023922171920
59Marsee0.487180.4736813.66670.5897278.3763919201820
60Brent Craig0.473680.4736813.33000.3921260.0063818201820
61DirectorOfInformation0.461540.4871813.3826-0.2738280.1173918211920
62Pi-Rate Ratings0.461540.4871813.49771.5690274.8073918211920
63Lee Burdorf0.512820.4871813.56151.1718279.7693920191920
64Laffaye XWP0.538460.4615418.01039.4769499.3973921181821
65CPA Rankings0.512820.4615413.04671.4103260.8783920191821
66Catherwood Ratings0.487180.4473713.87181.6154289.9593919201721
67Dunkel Index0.564100.4615413.73131.8533274.2213922171821
68PointShare0.512820.4359013.82030.3741291.7513920191722
69Least Squares w/ HFA0.512820.3333317.41515.0885424.2133920191326
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases