Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Second Half Totals

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.7146312.92070.8183268.249410293117
2Brent Craig 20.692310.3137316.09383.1962373.6445236161635
3DP Dwiggins0.693070.4408613.88121.0297293.91010170314152
4Randal Horobik0.730160.4891813.85720.2977301.68125218468113118
5Regression Based Analys0.729640.5304713.48531.9674298.95230722483148131
6Tempo Free Gridiron0.723130.5411013.6482-1.7134314.80530722285158134
7Line (updated)0.717340.5288112.94540.9477266.800421302119156139
8Loudsound.org0.689460.5625013.8176-3.4239316.756351242109189147
9Computer Adjusted Line0.717340.5205012.95960.8575266.877421302119165152
10Logistic Regression0.685640.5546215.7456-2.8696389.856369253116198159
11Line (opening)0.699280.5294112.92120.4988266.518419293126180160
12MDS Model0.700580.5045013.7147-0.2503300.594344241103168165
13Least Squares w/ HFA0.666670.5322115.45410.0537375.347369246123190167
14Sportrends0.678280.5226014.06301.0791309.786373253120185169
15Atomic Football0.712590.5398913.19950.5819279.655421300121203173
16Pigskin Index0.717340.5483013.2424-0.0922279.052421302119210173
17Linear Regression0.688350.5112413.5403-0.4773287.299369254115182174
18Ashby AccuRatings0.731590.5329812.89310.4325267.211421308113202177
19Massey Ratings0.714960.5234413.3658-0.3064285.138421301120201183
20Massey Consensus0.717340.5490213.31330.4597280.955421302119224184
21ARGH Power Ratings0.726840.5282113.39010.6502283.474421306115206184
22Covers.com0.714960.5420813.4449-0.2154291.280421301120219185
23Billingsley+0.724470.5441213.23010.1147279.158421305116222186
24System Median0.719710.5350013.08950.3080271.540421303118214186
25Laffaye RWP0.710210.5441213.5657-1.6667299.276421299122222186
26Sagarin Ratings0.726840.5405413.14330.6402273.734421306115220187
27Stat Fox0.733970.5180413.43951.5538284.597421309112201187
28Howell0.714290.5155413.45350.2227287.045420300120199187
29Catherwood Ratings0.713600.5253813.61341.3604286.783419299120207187
30Payne Power Ratings0.735710.5369513.3613-0.7122282.787420309111218188
31Super List0.676960.5392214.67570.3789339.487421285136220188
32Moore Power Ratings0.712590.5380813.63960.6870296.684421300121219188
33Pi-Rate Ratings0.698340.5333313.38130.2473286.081421294127216189
34Thompson Average0.714960.5320213.05430.4857269.285421301120216190
35Born Power Index0.722090.5343113.50260.3003288.662421304117218190
36Daniel Curry Index0.721430.5295613.82260.4498300.269420303117215191
37Billingsley0.700710.5318613.5492-0.1508297.315421295126217191
38PerformanZ Ratings0.705460.5294113.36640.6261279.334421297124216192
39Cleanup Hitter0.698250.5051513.71201.5798312.911401280121196192
40NutShell Combo0.710210.5246313.78130.0451303.199421299122213193
41FEI Projections0.674580.5076514.2518-0.7838323.376421284137199193
42Stephen Kerns0.714960.5187013.13660.1153273.012421301120208193
43Sagarin Golden Mean0.724470.5269613.21970.7225277.833421305116215193
44Beck Elo0.691210.5258013.75410.4671295.399421291130214193
45Nutshell Eye0.684090.5174113.8560-0.0618310.448421288133208194
46Thompson CAL0.722090.5245112.96480.6618266.308421304117214194
47System Average0.712590.5208813.10910.3393272.426421300121212195
48Sagarin Points Elo0.731590.5185213.30180.3586279.550421308113210195
49Donchess Inference0.703090.5184313.20760.2152275.788421296125211196
50NutShell Sports0.695960.5111713.9946-0.0798311.339421293128206197
51PI-Rate Bias0.695960.5123213.39710.2115284.679421293128208198
52Dave Congrove0.748220.5147113.55370.2537300.298421315106210198
53Pi-Ratings Mean0.693590.5062013.36620.0609279.121421292129204199
54Edward Kambour0.714960.5122513.36930.7713283.572421301120209199
55ComPughter Ratings0.694510.5049313.7075-0.3436293.888419291128205201
56ThePowerRank.com0.694710.4975113.54980.1344286.417416289127200202
57Marsee0.703090.4924613.66032.1971292.680421296125196202
58CPA Rankings0.731590.5049013.2431-0.4419278.176421308113206202
59PointShare0.672210.5024613.8475-0.9520302.783421283138204202
60Dokter Entropy0.714960.5049013.10260.8485269.011421301120206202
61DirectorOfInformation0.719710.5024513.06240.2684273.286421303118205203
62Laz Index0.714960.5024513.3845-0.0067282.007421301120205203
63Thompson ATS0.717340.5024513.08600.6209270.603421302119205203
64Bihl System0.706440.4975413.46850.7592284.322419296123202204
65Brent Craig0.683330.4963113.87490.6808297.249420287133202205
66Sagarin Points0.714960.4938613.21230.7641277.773421301120201206
67Keeper0.701670.4926113.49681.4262280.207419294125200206
68Laffaye XWP0.688840.4851516.27966.6292413.606421290131196208
69Lee Burdorf0.700710.4889413.79380.6742300.412421295126199208
70Dunkel Index0.710530.4839514.06161.1671309.021418297121196209
71CPA Retro0.660330.4852914.5276-0.9322324.421421278143198210
72Nutshell Girl0.691210.4730414.16230.2815323.692421291130193215
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases