Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Season Totals

Through 2022-10-02
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.7677911.91010.3109218.36726720562
2Roundtable0.675210.5398213.7350-0.3846300.23011779386152
3Line (updated)0.756550.5537211.88580.3464217.145267202656754
4FEI Projections0.666670.3913013.2479-2.2049275.59111778394570
5Computer Adjusted Line0.756550.4430411.96820.2753218.521267202657088
6Dunkel Index0.722220.4525113.69371.5157291.727180130508198
7Line (opening)0.752810.5068511.91010.4120219.77526720166111108
8Keeper0.730340.5285213.44321.6159280.96826719572139124
9Donchess Inference0.741570.5058812.8473-0.6164256.13726719869129126
10Loudsound.org0.650000.4980415.7808-5.8423367.78026016991127128
11ESPN FPI0.746150.4882812.25020.0871229.14926019466125131
12Payne Predict0.734080.4961813.01130.3341261.13726719671130132
13Talisman Red0.704120.4981013.37090.2531276.21826718879131132
14David Harville0.722850.4943012.8103-0.8162248.37726719374130133
15DP Dwiggins0.719100.4824913.6854-1.1910290.57126719275124133
16Sagarin Golden Mean0.696630.4943012.8772-0.9531251.34226718681130133
17Sagarin Points0.726590.4885512.7727-0.9517250.89826719473128134
18Massey Ratings0.726590.4885512.8297-1.0170247.50026719473128134
19Sagarin Ratings0.737830.4866912.7473-0.8817246.22226719770128135
20Daniel Curry Index0.685390.4866913.66921.1007290.64226718384128135
21Laz Index0.689140.4866913.4989-0.8311273.50326718483128135
22Payne Power Ratings0.730340.4866912.8734-1.0277247.99126719572128135
23Beck Elo0.700370.4828913.6203-0.2753277.81726718780127136
24Billingsley0.657890.4789314.6562-1.7040326.35726617591125136
25Dave Congrove0.696630.4828913.55810.4703272.01226718681127136
26System Average0.696630.4828912.7216-0.1537242.24626718681127136
27PI-Rate Bias0.726590.4809212.64871.0322242.28526719473126136
28System Median0.707870.4769212.6022-0.1018239.30526718978124136
29Pigskin Index0.722850.4581712.65541.2549242.31126719374115136
30TeamRankings.com0.730340.4730812.4423-0.3494238.94526719572123137
31Stat Fox0.702700.4475812.90741.7107249.93125918277111137
32Laffaye RWP0.679250.4674314.6920-2.2477318.75426518085122139
33ARGH Power Ratings0.707870.4509813.7622-1.8727287.45626718978115140
34Pi-Ratings Mean0.726590.4618312.68200.6611239.34026719473121141
35Dokter Entropy0.730340.4618312.33230.5712230.66926719572121141
36Moore Power Ratings0.710530.4618313.6852-1.2196290.61626618977121141
37Born Power Index0.719100.4600813.40241.7414280.69626719275121142
38Pi-Rate Ratings0.734080.4559412.79180.9805244.59526719671119142
39Sagarin Recent0.741570.4580212.9830-0.3464259.36526719869120142
40Versus Sports Simulator0.747170.4559412.67290.8436246.95726519867119142
41Howell0.681650.4370114.1160-1.6927309.11726718285111143
42Payne W/L0.677900.4542014.1704-2.1832302.06326718186119143
43PerformanZ Ratings0.685390.4524714.2922-0.3967307.67926718384119144
44Waywardtrends0.715360.4410613.5312-0.1665276.39926719176116147
45Cleanup Hitter0.677900.4280215.1179-0.3501342.27626718186110147
46Catherwood Ratings0.685390.4307713.94761.8951293.08026718384112148
47Edward Kambour0.694340.4252913.23660.3469270.84126518481111150
48Stephen Kerns0.707870.4198516.1710-0.0122394.84526718978110152
49Brent Craig0.723080.4023412.69270.5180241.50226018872103153
50Massey Consensus0.700370.4144513.10251.1420265.43926718780109154
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases