Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-09-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.7708312.5417-0.1458235.859967422
2ThePowerRank.com0.500000.5000016.7000-16.7000141.40521111
3Dunkel Index0.666670.3888917.78223.9300415.30118126711
4Talisman Red0.800000.4888912.3940-0.9864224.624453692223
5Line (updated)0.750000.5400012.5573-0.0365237.8109672242723
6Computer Adjusted Line0.750000.4920612.6250-0.1146239.4959672243132
7Pigskin Index0.739580.5814013.19801.4066246.0779671255036
8Line (opening)0.739580.4942512.5885-0.9323242.9529671254344
9Pi-Ratings Mean0.781250.5368413.28440.5115255.2179675215144
10Pi-Rate Ratings0.770830.5212813.39370.6040264.2779674224945
11DP Dwiggins0.687500.5053816.2917-3.4583393.9179666304746
12ESPN FPI0.718750.5157912.78590.0916243.3909669274946
13PI-Rate Bias0.791670.5106413.23341.0520258.1129676204846
14Catherwood Ratings0.760420.4835214.10420.7083281.0369673234447
15Stephen Kerns0.687500.4947414.4446-0.8552315.4859666304748
16Super List0.729170.4947416.44521.6831379.0219670264748
17Massey Ratings0.729170.4947414.1204-2.1646306.0819670264748
18Beck Elo0.750000.4947414.2828-0.9420309.3489672244748
19TeamRankings.com0.750000.4947412.80320.6136249.4319672244748
20Edward Kambour0.791670.4947413.8525-0.0662279.2219676204748
21FEI Projections0.625000.4842118.4643-7.6926526.7339660364649
22Keeper0.739130.4615413.76991.8686277.5399268244249
23ARGH Power Ratings0.750000.4680914.8490-3.0990322.5119672244450
24Born Power Index0.760420.4736814.37811.2844303.0559673234550
25Dave Congrove0.687500.4631614.95350.2154322.4169666304451
26Versus Sports Simulator0.765960.4516112.87831.2391238.9729472224251
27Howell0.687500.4468115.1096-4.2862354.0389666304252
28PerformanZ Ratings0.708330.4526315.1511-2.7349345.3389668284352
29Laffaye RWP0.739580.4347814.4750-2.6713322.4089671254052
30Sagarin Points0.666670.4421114.3433-1.2150306.5839664324253
31Loudsound.org0.489580.4421117.8958-6.5417502.0339647494253
32Stat Fox0.739580.4239113.96890.6564294.5369671253953
33David Harville0.750000.4421113.5959-0.9784266.1649672244253
34Payne Power Ratings0.760420.4315813.5858-0.9227274.9289673234154
35Cleanup Hitter0.708330.4193515.1563-0.6146374.9659668283954
36Daniel Curry Index0.697920.4315816.6061-4.3930448.6109667294154
37Dokter Entropy0.739580.4315813.8886-1.3301267.1229671254154
38Laz Index0.781250.4210513.5121-0.3708267.0219675214055
39Payne Predict0.739580.4210513.2874-0.2009263.2939671254055
40Sagarin Golden Mean0.656250.4210516.1992-0.3546434.3509663334055
41Payne W/L0.791670.4105315.8964-4.2559379.2129676203956
42System Median0.750000.4105313.3006-0.7981257.1629672243956
43Sagarin Recent0.666670.4105316.2041-0.7857432.1139664323956
44Sagarin Ratings0.666670.4105314.4100-1.0527306.9659664323956
45Massey Consensus0.739580.4105314.11790.0931294.6589671253956
46Billingsley0.739580.4105315.6042-3.2365367.6789671253956
47System Average0.760420.3894713.4580-1.0547263.5759673233758
48Moore Power Ratings0.729170.3894714.1057-2.1070294.4999670263758
49Donchess Inference0.750000.3655914.5292-2.4500296.1519672243459
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases