Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-12-05
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.7209312.61490.3687245.402731527204
2Catherwood Ratings0.770270.5000013.74320.6351276.443148114347070
3Line (updated)0.720930.4853412.63680.3044245.906731527204149158
4Least Squares w/ HFA0.687850.5208915.63910.2504371.884362249113187172
5Linear Regression0.707180.5069613.05210.2023260.289362256106182177
6Logistic Regression0.687850.4624015.5402-2.4646375.449362249113166193
7Brent Craig0.709440.5219513.07230.4671263.758413293120214196
8Bihl System0.694920.4951213.07070.2171258.562413287126203207
9Computer Adjusted Line0.715460.4701512.65800.3516246.081731523208189213
10Roundtable0.710260.5031713.60560.5795293.432497353144238235
11FEI Projections0.692970.5096312.96310.1775254.026583404179291280
12Line (opening)0.719560.5023312.70040.1382249.200731526205324321
13Dunkel Index0.687600.4969013.47921.1920278.069653449204321325
14Laffaye RWP0.708770.4969813.88820.0672304.734673477196329333
15Pigskin Index0.694940.5059213.14770.8636259.115731508223342334
16Talisman Red0.698090.4955413.2858-0.0636268.243679474205333339
17Keeper0.719390.5202213.37891.1921282.567727523204373344
18DP Dwiggins0.698760.4978513.92300.1183303.285727508219348351
19Dave Congrove0.695890.5131813.65400.9330285.481730508222370351
20Pi-Rate Ratings0.708620.5104613.11770.8955260.862731518213366351
21Stat Fox0.697670.4913313.37492.1465272.564731510221340352
22ARGH Power Ratings0.723670.4971513.4576-0.2770281.199731529202349353
23Stephen Kerns0.693570.5097013.87200.9671301.042731507224368354
24Pi-Ratings Mean0.720930.5021113.03300.8680257.333731527204357354
25Howell0.709190.4900313.5322-0.3154283.369729517212344358
26PI-Rate Bias0.723670.5013913.11410.9762260.345731529202361359
27TeamRankings.com0.715460.4909113.02640.6355260.157731523208351364
28Super List0.720930.4944415.32321.3623356.364731527204356364
29Loudsound.org0.654650.4786314.7601-3.2510342.776721472249336366
30Moore Power Ratings0.704510.4910113.37530.4821277.694731515216355368
31Beck Elo0.700410.4910113.46900.6618284.142731512219355368
32Laz Index0.726400.4882113.11010.5061261.188731531200352369
33Born Power Index0.693570.4868613.49761.1577275.804731507224352371
34Edward Kambour0.718190.4868613.22900.5752263.238731525206352371
35Massey Consensus0.733240.4847613.60571.1080282.895731536195350372
36Massey Ratings0.705880.4854813.4021-0.1630274.564731516215351372
37Cleanup Hitter0.675790.4724214.34890.7772320.517731494237334373
38System Average0.715460.4833812.92090.4208253.856731523208349373
39PerformanZ Ratings0.711350.4792214.01500.3878307.737731520211346376
40Donchess Inference0.722300.4675113.27130.1053266.990731528203331377
41System Median0.709990.4734612.90720.4321252.788731519212339377
42Billingsley0.714090.4764513.95620.0539306.275731522209344378
43Sagarin Recent0.697670.4758013.58010.2712292.150731510221344379
44Versus Sports Simulator0.710560.4743413.25350.5166268.502729518211342379
45ESPN FPI0.709990.4723012.96261.1034258.292731519212341381
46Payne W/L0.715460.4695314.3937-0.9110321.141731523208339383
47Daniel Curry Index0.700410.4675013.8819-0.0720297.049731512219338385
48Payne Power Ratings0.705880.4661113.6216-0.2945287.186731516215337386
49Sagarin Golden Mean0.692200.4661113.50520.2220283.036731506225337386
50Payne Predict0.699040.4647313.81690.1442299.887731511220336387
51Dokter Entropy0.727770.4632513.09990.4198260.263731532199334387
52Sagarin Points0.705880.4612213.29870.1515267.874731516215333389
53David Harville0.712720.4577013.09070.1360260.463731521210330391
54Sagarin Ratings0.700410.4467513.22440.1602264.812731512219323400
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases