Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2020 Season Totals

Through 2021-01-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.7191012.90170.9448257.308534384150
2Laffaye RWP0.520000.4000016.0400-0.4800335.4322513121015
3Line (updated)0.715360.4940712.89510.8127256.044534382152125128
4Talisman Red0.712420.5133313.98400.7883304.77730621888154146
5Stephen Kerns0.746400.5177513.16401.7512281.06334725988175163
6Computer Adjusted Line0.719100.5146212.88010.9007255.565534384150176166
7Roundtable0.708680.4825614.60501.7983357.728357253104166178
8Loudsound.org0.659620.5252715.5285-2.2896386.431473312161239216
9ARGH Power Ratings0.715630.5483213.46371.7057291.007531380151278229
10Line (opening)0.691010.4825313.45511.2809282.935534369165221237
11Donchess Inference0.745140.5260013.02331.6455268.716514383131263237
12Howell0.690980.5150913.50951.0740286.436521360161256241
13Pi-Ratings Mean0.707870.5383113.03310.6440264.111534378156281241
14Pi-Rate Ratings0.715360.5374313.12040.7209267.578534382152280241
15ThePowerRank.com0.700000.5196113.3985-0.1203279.543520364156265245
16Stat Fox0.704120.5147313.83713.0321300.028534376158262247
17PerformanZ Ratings0.711610.5276213.78061.9755301.128534380154277248
18TeamRankings.com0.731710.5165713.00771.3342264.054533390143265248
19PI-Rate Bias0.717230.5193113.11230.7731266.643534383151269249
20Dokter Entropy0.731570.5202313.00521.6897269.282529387142270249
21Keeper0.732530.4908413.54250.9936282.388501367134241250
22Massey Consensus0.718050.5209913.49671.9934289.927532382150273251
23Dave Congrove0.675420.5200014.47251.5965326.822533360173273252
24David Harville0.728460.5171113.21281.5338276.121534389145272254
25FEI Projections0.726080.5115413.28661.6914281.170533387146266254
26ESPN FPI0.734960.5124313.00501.1647262.246532391141268255
27Versus Sports Simulator0.722220.5009713.30901.6531278.888522377145257256
28Dunkel Index0.731900.4910513.63232.2680287.564511374137247256
29Catherwood Ratings0.709740.4990313.91203.0805305.400534379155256257
30Cleanup Hitter0.685010.4901614.58731.1965333.430527361166249259
31Massey Ratings0.706440.5000013.64630.8526294.858528373155260260
32System Median0.730340.4952013.04381.3908267.524534390144258263
33Laz Index0.689140.4981013.66361.8644290.701534368166262264
34Daniel Curry Index0.704060.4774114.78301.4754356.645517364153243266
35Moore Power Ratings0.695490.4914013.84411.2791293.824532370162257266
36Sagarin Recent0.713480.4904914.12440.7035308.036534381153258268
37Born Power Index0.726590.4885913.81042.3545302.635534388146257269
38Sagarin Points0.711610.4885913.79950.6217299.101534380154257269
39Sagarin Golden Mean0.705990.4857113.74590.5010294.907534377157255270
40Super List0.699250.4828214.71082.0506331.095532372160253271
41System Average0.722850.4847913.07491.4282268.413534386148255271
42Edward Kambour0.694760.4847913.80631.3969296.234534371163255271
43Beck Elo0.713480.4847913.74342.3591294.619534381153255271
44Sagarin Ratings0.719100.4800013.75090.6033294.669534384150252273
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases