Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2017 Season Totals

Through 2018-01-09
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.7320512.31540.2987246.627780571209
2FEI Projections0.707820.5087713.4938-0.0617283.28824317271116112
3Brent Craig 20.682820.4524914.10691.6418303.50222715572100121
4Logistic Regression0.666670.5346814.6741-4.0584359.438357238119185161
5Linear Regression0.694680.5317912.7521-1.6586267.431357248109184162
6Least Squares w/ HFA0.655460.4884415.4850-1.1590388.671357234123169177
7Bihl System0.701490.5109613.1642-0.4077283.271469329140233223
8Line (updated)0.735900.5307712.27500.1763246.617780574206276244
9Roundtable0.703210.4889313.3062-0.8677290.518529372157243254
10Computer Adjusted Line0.734620.5318812.28780.1699246.636780573207292257
11Line (opening)0.715380.5119212.40510.4526249.827780558222322307
12Brent Craig0.727270.4711913.06090.3614272.355605440165278312
13The Sports Cruncher0.737880.5319712.4591-0.3964255.997763563200391344
14Liam Bressler0.712980.5164412.86772.0164266.247763544219377353
15Sagarin Ratings0.721790.5348212.6038-0.2247257.640780563217407354
16Loudsound.org0.687170.5102914.2592-3.8246328.546764525239372357
17Sagarin Points0.729490.5243112.5081-0.2262253.335780569211399362
18Payne Power Ratings0.714100.5236813.3639-1.2571289.047780557223398362
19Ashby AccuRatings0.742310.4993112.66400.4310259.612780579201362363
20Atomic Football0.741980.4965612.6431-0.3350257.811779578201361366
21ARGH Power Ratings0.729140.4993213.2166-0.3630281.017779568211365366
22TeamRankings.com0.735900.5145512.61870.8390253.192780574206389367
23Born Power Index0.725640.5164312.97390.5393277.497780566214393368
24Stephen Kerns0.720050.5060413.65600.8164305.812768553215377368
25Sagarin Golden Mean0.724360.5125212.7176-0.1869262.586780565215389370
26ComPughter Ratings0.734460.5079812.9387-0.0584270.568772567205382370
27Pigskin Index0.723080.4910812.83970.4016266.915780564216358371
28ESPN FPI0.730770.5124812.41950.7077248.996780570210390371
29Catherwood Ratings0.716670.4896813.28081.0987281.307780559221356371
30Dave Congrove0.726920.5124813.5219-0.0885296.489780567213390371
31Lee Burdorf0.717780.5046613.39610.3271291.637776557219379372
32PerformanZ Ratings0.702560.5111713.95990.1603313.924780548232389372
33Sagarin Recent0.712820.5092113.1485-0.1220277.826780556224387373
34Pi-Rate Ratings0.720510.5078912.83030.7428266.536780562218386374
35PI-Rate Bias0.721790.5039812.80110.6465264.341780563217380374
36Pi-Ratings Mean0.734620.5026512.76520.5531262.567780573207379375
37ThePowerRank.com0.733930.4973313.1130-0.0276276.542778571207372376
38DP Dwiggins0.717220.4898513.40360.0360286.578778558220362377
39Keeper0.739740.5046013.33530.4100289.443780577203384377
40Moore Power Ratings0.708230.4986813.20720.1592277.833778551227378380
41Dokter Entropy0.729490.5000012.49160.5629253.181780569211380380
42Edward Kambour0.728220.4920013.1962-0.2558279.715769560209369381
43Marsee0.704370.4816313.97431.7866315.399778548230354381
44Dunkel Index0.710600.4693613.98700.7832313.402736523213337381
45Donchess Inference0.723650.4960412.8079-0.2873264.827778563215376382
46Super List0.670510.4960514.92740.4521355.552780523257377383
47System Median0.728210.4873212.63970.1919258.399780568212365384
48Talisman Red0.713910.4804313.5057-0.7093291.081762544218356385
49Stat Fox0.715380.4741813.27441.4002279.755780558222349387
50Cleanup Hitter0.683330.4805414.6051-0.0216340.375780533247358387
51Massey Ratings0.725640.4901413.3692-0.8905283.711780566214373388
52Daniel Curry Index0.708600.4881613.57590.8275299.339779552227371389
53System Average0.732050.4881612.63460.1971258.260780571209371389
54Howell0.703850.4764513.5699-0.6108296.249780549231354389
55NutShell Sports0.691030.4779114.63600.2520341.971780539241357390
56Massey Consensus0.669230.4862015.09570.8758353.202780522258370391
57Beck Elo0.697440.4835713.76940.1230300.236780544236368393
58Billingsley+0.719230.4809513.75860.0206307.652780561219366395
59Laz Index0.729490.4783212.9295-0.0183267.210780569211364397
60Billingsley0.707690.4750013.8282-0.2159307.356780552228361399
61Laffaye RWP0.691030.4664914.2882-0.6331324.420780539241355406
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases