Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Season Totals

Through 2015-01-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.7326212.49731.2580252.051748548200
2Logistic Regression0.685640.5546215.7456-2.8696389.856369253116198159
3Least Squares w/ HFA0.666670.5322115.45410.0537375.347369246123190167
4Loudsound.org0.690770.5639713.5236-3.1740303.556401277124216167
5Linear Regression0.688350.5112413.5403-0.4773287.299369254115182174
6Brent Craig 20.730880.4781313.29414.5184281.04835325895164179
7DP Dwiggins0.749350.4517913.67621.4726293.43038328796164199
8Bihl System0.690830.4945113.49131.1259282.167469324145225230
9Line (updated)0.736840.5233512.47701.3191249.765760560200269245
10Nutshell Eye0.687930.5054313.54810.5517294.092580399181279273
11NutShell Combo0.708620.5098413.44950.4232290.404580411169285274
12PointShare0.655170.5089613.8665-0.0945302.334580380200284274
13Computer Adjusted Line0.735530.5132312.50661.2500250.262760559201291276
14Massey Ratings0.703880.5079913.2848-0.0307282.541618435183286277
15Randal Horobik0.734350.4780213.73601.1337291.875591434157261285
16Tempo Free Gridiron0.713620.5258913.6579-1.2368309.315646461185325293
17Line (opening)0.720320.5225812.55470.9453251.703758546212324296
18Sportrends0.685160.5134714.33730.0255332.841667457210324307
19Regression Based Analys0.724460.4784113.89162.3003309.165646468178288314
20MDS Model0.708210.5045213.89810.0988309.047682483199335329
21Cleanup Hitter0.706720.5059014.17612.3361336.343699494205343335
22Pi-Ratings Mean0.717110.5382512.81050.6926260.100760545215394338
23Laffaye RWP0.700000.5405413.8757-1.5578311.392760532228400340
24Pigskin Index0.732890.5100312.96580.5319268.003760557203356342
25Pi-Rate Ratings0.722370.5359612.95601.0500269.513760549211395342
26Ashby AccuRatings0.728950.5072012.77900.7397260.553760554206352342
27PI-Rate Bias0.718420.5313412.93250.9499266.871760546214390344
28Howell0.705800.5106713.64050.6208294.962758535223359344
29Atomic Football0.722370.5099712.89971.1315265.172760549211358344
30Super List0.690790.5331514.55720.9633335.618760525235394345
31Covers.com0.698680.5286913.7098-0.2118303.723760531229387345
32FEI Projections0.687750.5098313.77470.1225302.117759522237363349
33Beck Elo0.701280.4905113.73050.8736291.916703493210336349
34System Median0.730260.5151512.82450.8342261.095760555205374352
35ARGH Power Ratings0.721050.5028213.49511.0266285.106760548212357353
36Billingsley+0.731580.5216213.17330.3666279.161760556204386354
37Catherwood Ratings0.720320.5014013.67811.5831296.065758546212357355
38NutShell Sports0.708440.5103414.00850.0378316.792758537221370355
39Billingsley0.718420.5189213.58350.0035299.722760546214384356
40Massey Consensus0.726320.5189213.21871.0745277.300760552208384356
41Payne Power Ratings0.728590.5162613.35950.3545282.559759553206381357
42ThePowerRank.com0.704850.5034713.10380.4475274.416742523219363358
43Stat Fox0.728950.4943513.37111.8056285.530760554206350358
44Laz Index0.709210.5108113.23910.2984276.767760539221378362
45Stephen Kerns0.705160.4872513.7344-0.0158293.368736519217344362
46System Average0.722370.5081312.85530.8323262.563760549211375363
47Thompson CAL0.739470.5081112.57491.1438251.332760562198376364
48Sagarin Points Elo0.725000.5061113.51981.0935289.009760551209373364
49Edward Kambour0.722300.5006913.32391.1352282.256749541208365364
50Donchess Inference0.697890.5047513.46600.2313286.376758529229372365
51Thompson ATS0.736840.5067612.62680.9076253.703760560200375365
52Nutshell Girl0.711910.4800613.78950.8216306.373722514208337365
53Dunkel Index0.726550.5047513.58281.4209303.465757550207372365
54Thompson Average0.731580.5027212.70091.0303256.739760556204370366
55ComPughter Ratings0.708440.5027113.33540.4806280.579758537221371367
56Sagarin Golden Mean0.726320.5027013.39051.2257281.650760552208372368
57CPA Rankings0.734210.5027013.22780.4700273.204760558202372368
58PerformanZ Ratings0.698680.5027013.86220.7613302.269760531229372368
59Daniel Curry Index0.714100.4993214.31450.8363323.839759542217368369
60DirectorOfInformation0.726320.4973013.02800.5673271.395760552208368372
61Lee Burdorf0.712400.4938813.65390.8791292.789758540218363372
62Born Power Index0.711840.4973013.89170.9360302.254760541219368372
63Sagarin Ratings0.734210.4966213.07981.2648270.887760558202367372
64Dokter Entropy0.730260.4966212.77481.2805257.344760555205367372
65Moore Power Ratings0.717310.4904913.68381.1843297.639757543214361375
66Marsee0.698680.4777813.99212.6526307.843760531229344376
67Dave Congrove0.732890.4891913.75050.3377306.783760557203362378
68CPA Retro0.686840.4891914.21340.2496312.580760522238362378
69Sagarin Points0.728950.4857913.01631.3367271.817760554206359380
70Keeper0.711080.4850913.74012.0397291.578758539219358380
71Brent Craig0.703170.4816813.51861.3501284.228758533225355382
72Laffaye XWP0.692110.4782616.52096.7767425.075760526234352384
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases