ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Season Totals

Through 2015-01-13

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Line (Midweek)	0.73262		12.4973	1.2580	252.051	748	548	200
2	Logistic Regression	0.68564	0.55462	15.7456	-2.8696	389.856	369	253	116	198	159
3	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.66667	0.53221	15.4541	0.0537	375.347	369	246	123	190	167
4	Loudsound.org	0.69077	0.56397	13.5236	-3.1740	303.556	401	277	124	216	167
5	Linear Regression	0.68835	0.51124	13.5403	-0.4773	287.299	369	254	115	182	174
6	Brent Craig 2	0.73088	0.47813	13.2941	4.5184	281.048	353	258	95	164	179
7	DP Dwiggins	0.74935	0.45179	13.6762	1.4726	293.430	383	287	96	164	199
8	Bihl System	0.69083	0.49451	13.4913	1.1259	282.167	469	324	145	225	230
9	Line (updated)	0.73684	0.52335	12.4770	1.3191	249.765	760	560	200	269	245
10	Nutshell Eye	0.68793	0.50543	13.5481	0.5517	294.092	580	399	181	279	273
11	NutShell Combo	0.70862	0.50984	13.4495	0.4232	290.404	580	411	169	285	274
12	PointShare	0.65517	0.50896	13.8665	-0.0945	302.334	580	380	200	284	274
13	Computer Adjusted Line	0.73553	0.51323	12.5066	1.2500	250.262	760	559	201	291	276
14	Massey Ratings	0.70388	0.50799	13.2848	-0.0307	282.541	618	435	183	286	277
15	Randal Horobik	0.73435	0.47802	13.7360	1.1337	291.875	591	434	157	261	285
16	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.71362	0.52589	13.6579	-1.2368	309.315	646	461	185	325	293
17	Line (opening)	0.72032	0.52258	12.5547	0.9453	251.703	758	546	212	324	296
18	Sportrends	0.68516	0.51347	14.3373	0.0255	332.841	667	457	210	324	307
19	Regression Based Analys	0.72446	0.47841	13.8916	2.3003	309.165	646	468	178	288	314
20	MDS Model	0.70821	0.50452	13.8981	0.0988	309.047	682	483	199	335	329
21	Cleanup Hitter	0.70672	0.50590	14.1761	2.3361	336.343	699	494	205	343	335
22	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.71711	0.53825	12.8105	0.6926	260.100	760	545	215	394	338
23	Laffaye RWP	0.70000	0.54054	13.8757	-1.5578	311.392	760	532	228	400	340
24	Pigskin Index	0.73289	0.51003	12.9658	0.5319	268.003	760	557	203	356	342
25	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.72237	0.53596	12.9560	1.0500	269.513	760	549	211	395	342
26	Ashby AccuRatings	0.72895	0.50720	12.7790	0.7397	260.553	760	554	206	352	342
27	PI-Rate Bias	0.71842	0.53134	12.9325	0.9499	266.871	760	546	214	390	344
28	Howell	0.70580	0.51067	13.6405	0.6208	294.962	758	535	223	359	344
29	Atomic Football	0.72237	0.50997	12.8997	1.1315	265.172	760	549	211	358	344
30	Super List	0.69079	0.53315	14.5572	0.9633	335.618	760	525	235	394	345
31	Covers.com	0.69868	0.52869	13.7098	-0.2118	303.723	760	531	229	387	345
32	FEI Projections	0.68775	0.50983	13.7747	0.1225	302.117	759	522	237	363	349
33	Beck Elo	0.70128	0.49051	13.7305	0.8736	291.916	703	493	210	336	349
34	System Median	0.73026	0.51515	12.8245	0.8342	261.095	760	555	205	374	352
35	ARGH Power Ratings	0.72105	0.50282	13.4951	1.0266	285.106	760	548	212	357	353
36	Billingsley+	0.73158	0.52162	13.1733	0.3666	279.161	760	556	204	386	354
37	Catherwood Ratings	0.72032	0.50140	13.6781	1.5831	296.065	758	546	212	357	355
38	NutShell Sports	0.70844	0.51034	14.0085	0.0378	316.792	758	537	221	370	355
39	Billingsley	0.71842	0.51892	13.5835	0.0035	299.722	760	546	214	384	356
40	Massey Consensus	0.72632	0.51892	13.2187	1.0745	277.300	760	552	208	384	356
41	Payne Power Ratings	0.72859	0.51626	13.3595	0.3545	282.559	759	553	206	381	357
42	ThePowerRank.com	0.70485	0.50347	13.1038	0.4475	274.416	742	523	219	363	358
43	Stat Fox	0.72895	0.49435	13.3711	1.8056	285.530	760	554	206	350	358
44	Laz Index	0.70921	0.51081	13.2391	0.2984	276.767	760	539	221	378	362
45	Stephen Kerns	0.70516	0.48725	13.7344	-0.0158	293.368	736	519	217	344	362
46	System Average	0.72237	0.50813	12.8553	0.8323	262.563	760	549	211	375	363
47	Thompson CAL	0.73947	0.50811	12.5749	1.1438	251.332	760	562	198	376	364
48	Sagarin Points Elo	0.72500	0.50611	13.5198	1.0935	289.009	760	551	209	373	364
49	Edward Kambour	0.72230	0.50069	13.3239	1.1352	282.256	749	541	208	365	364
50	Donchess Inference	0.69789	0.50475	13.4660	0.2313	286.376	758	529	229	372	365
51	Thompson ATS	0.73684	0.50676	12.6268	0.9076	253.703	760	560	200	375	365
52	Nutshell Girl	0.71191	0.48006	13.7895	0.8216	306.373	722	514	208	337	365
53	Dunkel Index	0.72655	0.50475	13.5828	1.4209	303.465	757	550	207	372	365
54	Thompson Average	0.73158	0.50272	12.7009	1.0303	256.739	760	556	204	370	366
55	ComPughter Ratings	0.70844	0.50271	13.3354	0.4806	280.579	758	537	221	371	367
56	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.72632	0.50270	13.3905	1.2257	281.650	760	552	208	372	368
57	CPA Rankings	0.73421	0.50270	13.2278	0.4700	273.204	760	558	202	372	368
58	PerformanZ Ratings	0.69868	0.50270	13.8622	0.7613	302.269	760	531	229	372	368
59	Daniel Curry Index	0.71410	0.49932	14.3145	0.8363	323.839	759	542	217	368	369
60	DirectorOfInformation	0.72632	0.49730	13.0280	0.5673	271.395	760	552	208	368	372
61	Lee Burdorf	0.71240	0.49388	13.6539	0.8791	292.789	758	540	218	363	372
62	Born Power Index	0.71184	0.49730	13.8917	0.9360	302.254	760	541	219	368	372
63	Sagarin Ratings	0.73421	0.49662	13.0798	1.2648	270.887	760	558	202	367	372
64	Dokter Entropy	0.73026	0.49662	12.7748	1.2805	257.344	760	555	205	367	372
65	Moore Power Ratings	0.71731	0.49049	13.6838	1.1843	297.639	757	543	214	361	375
66	Marsee	0.69868	0.47778	13.9921	2.6526	307.843	760	531	229	344	376
67	Dave Congrove	0.73289	0.48919	13.7505	0.3377	306.783	760	557	203	362	378
68	CPA Retro	0.68684	0.48919	14.2134	0.2496	312.580	760	522	238	362	378
69	Sagarin Points	0.72895	0.48579	13.0163	1.3367	271.817	760	554	206	359	380
70	Keeper	0.71108	0.48509	13.7401	2.0397	291.578	758	539	219	358	380
71	Brent Craig	0.70317	0.48168	13.5186	1.3501	284.228	758	533	225	355	382
72	Laffaye XWP	0.69211	0.47826	16.5209	6.7767	425.075	760	526	234	352	384

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases