Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2022 Last Week
Through 2023-01-10
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Keeper | 0.63415 | 0.65000 | 11.2166 | 0.5961 | 220.620 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 26 | 14 |
2 | Stephen Kerns | 0.64286 | 0.60976 | 11.3655 | -0.8940 | 246.748 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 25 | 16 |
3 | TeamRankings.com | 0.64286 | 0.60000 | 11.5643 | -0.7357 | 259.951 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 24 | 16 |
4 | ESPN FPI | 0.59524 | 0.53659 | 11.6314 | -1.2129 | 264.299 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 22 | 19 |
5 | Waywardtrends | 0.69048 | 0.63415 | 11.6438 | -1.2486 | 259.150 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 26 | 15 |
6 | Stat Fox | 0.69048 | 0.60000 | 11.6669 | -1.2374 | 272.594 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 24 | 16 |
7 | Payne Predict | 0.61905 | 0.60976 | 11.7355 | -0.8664 | 283.301 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 16 |
8 | Laz Index | 0.57143 | 0.60976 | 11.7760 | -0.9650 | 264.507 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 25 | 16 |
9 | Talisman Red | 0.61905 | 0.65854 | 11.7921 | -0.5493 | 266.059 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 27 | 14 |
10 | Linear Regression | 0.61905 | 0.60976 | 11.8124 | -0.1338 | 267.945 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 16 |
11 | Sagarin Recent | 0.69048 | 0.60976 | 11.8129 | -1.2805 | 262.814 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 25 | 16 |
12 | Sagarin Points | 0.57143 | 0.63415 | 11.8288 | -0.9998 | 264.123 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 26 | 15 |
13 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.61905 | 0.60976 | 11.8360 | -1.2274 | 264.261 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 16 |
14 | System Median | 0.61905 | 0.63415 | 11.8533 | -1.0600 | 263.523 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 26 | 15 |
15 | System Average | 0.61905 | 0.65854 | 11.8624 | -0.9576 | 263.357 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 27 | 14 |
16 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.59524 | 0.60976 | 11.8736 | -0.4179 | 242.434 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
17 | David Harville | 0.61905 | 0.53659 | 11.8800 | -0.7919 | 271.192 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 22 | 19 |
18 | DP Dwiggins | 0.57143 | 0.65789 | 11.8810 | 0.0714 | 267.738 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 25 | 13 |
19 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.61905 | 0.63415 | 11.9095 | -0.3662 | 271.862 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 26 | 15 |
20 | Dokter Entropy | 0.54762 | 0.53659 | 12.0024 | -0.7848 | 271.779 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 22 | 19 |
21 | Donchess Inference | 0.57143 | 0.58537 | 12.0095 | -1.4857 | 259.430 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 24 | 17 |
22 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.61905 | 0.64286 | 12.0119 | -1.2262 | 243.613 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 18 | 10 |
23 | Line (updated) | 0.61905 | 0.68000 | 12.0357 | -1.2024 | 239.245 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 17 | 8 |
24 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.73810 | 0.56757 | 12.0476 | -0.8095 | 275.699 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 21 | 16 |
25 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.64286 | 0.63415 | 12.0810 | -0.6762 | 266.693 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 26 | 15 |
26 | Dave Congrove | 0.61905 | 0.58537 | 12.0848 | -2.3629 | 282.688 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 24 | 17 |
27 | Pigskin Index | 0.69048 | 0.57895 | 12.1193 | -1.0236 | 270.238 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 22 | 16 |
28 | Line (Midweek) | 0.64286 | | 12.1667 | -1.4524 | 247.795 | 42 | 27 | 15 | | |
29 | FEI Projections | 0.57143 | 0.53659 | 12.2050 | 0.0764 | 260.699 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 22 | 19 |
30 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.66667 | 0.58537 | 12.2095 | -0.7714 | 269.618 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 24 | 17 |
31 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.61905 | 0.60976 | 12.2288 | -0.4093 | 264.325 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 25 | 16 |
32 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.57143 | 0.51220 | 12.2471 | -1.3338 | 278.335 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 21 | 20 |
33 | Line (opening) | 0.59524 | 0.57143 | 12.2857 | -1.6190 | 270.676 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
34 | Beck Elo | 0.59524 | 0.48718 | 12.2888 | -1.6202 | 283.215 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
35 | Massey Ratings | 0.59524 | 0.56098 | 12.4081 | -1.5595 | 284.297 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 23 | 18 |
36 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.54762 | 0.47500 | 12.4464 | -1.1250 | 267.153 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 19 | 21 |
37 | Edward Kambour | 0.66667 | 0.53659 | 12.4590 | -0.1914 | 272.272 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 22 | 19 |
38 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.52381 | 0.56098 | 12.4612 | -1.5850 | 283.672 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 23 | 18 |
39 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.59524 | 0.53659 | 12.5036 | -0.7512 | 303.554 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 22 | 19 |
40 | Dunkel Index | 0.69048 | 0.48780 | 12.5607 | -0.4536 | 280.539 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 20 | 21 |
41 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.73171 | 0.52500 | 12.5902 | -1.0293 | 275.927 | 41 | 30 | 11 | 21 | 19 |
42 | Born Power Index | 0.69048 | 0.51220 | 12.6929 | -0.8786 | 302.962 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 21 | 20 |
43 | Massey Consensus | 0.54762 | 0.48780 | 12.7398 | -1.7383 | 305.898 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
44 | Billingsley | 0.50000 | 0.48780 | 12.7510 | -2.4162 | 292.733 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 21 |
45 | Howell | 0.57143 | 0.51282 | 12.8571 | -0.7143 | 271.785 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 20 | 19 |
46 | Logistic Regression | 0.50000 | 0.51220 | 12.8690 | -2.3814 | 312.138 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 |
47 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.59524 | 0.51220 | 12.9340 | 2.8545 | 278.387 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 21 | 20 |
48 | Payne W/L | 0.52381 | 0.43902 | 12.9883 | -1.9721 | 301.727 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 23 |
49 | Laffaye RWP | 0.54762 | 0.43902 | 13.0069 | 1.1355 | 284.436 | 42 | 23 | 19 | 18 | 23 |
50 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.50000 | 0.53659 | 13.1786 | -2.3210 | 319.181 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 19 |
51 | Brent Craig | 0.66667 | 0.66667 | 22.3433 | -10.6167 | 841.238 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases