Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Last Week

Through 2023-01-10
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Keeper0.634150.6500011.21660.5961220.6204126152614
2Stephen Kerns0.642860.6097611.3655-0.8940246.7484227152516
3TeamRankings.com0.642860.6000011.5643-0.7357259.9514227152416
4ESPN FPI0.595240.5365911.6314-1.2129264.2994225172219
5Waywardtrends0.690480.6341511.6438-1.2486259.1504229132615
6Stat Fox0.690480.6000011.6669-1.2374272.5944229132416
7Payne Predict0.619050.6097611.7355-0.8664283.3014226162516
8Laz Index0.571430.6097611.7760-0.9650264.5074224182516
9Talisman Red0.619050.6585411.7921-0.5493266.0594226162714
10Linear Regression0.619050.6097611.8124-0.1338267.9454226162516
11Sagarin Recent0.690480.6097611.8129-1.2805262.8144229132516
12Sagarin Points0.571430.6341511.8288-0.9998264.1234224182615
13Sagarin Ratings0.619050.6097611.8360-1.2274264.2614226162516
14System Median0.619050.6341511.8533-1.0600263.5234226162615
15System Average0.619050.6585411.8624-0.9576263.3574226162714
16PerformanZ Ratings0.595240.6097611.8736-0.4179242.4344225172516
17David Harville0.619050.5365911.8800-0.7919271.1924226162219
18DP Dwiggins0.571430.6578911.88100.0714267.7384224182513
19Versus Sports Simulator0.619050.6341511.9095-0.3662271.8624226162615
20Dokter Entropy0.547620.5365912.0024-0.7848271.7794223192219
21Donchess Inference0.571430.5853712.0095-1.4857259.4304224182417
22Computer Adjusted Line0.619050.6428612.0119-1.2262243.6134226161810
23Line (updated)0.619050.6800012.0357-1.2024239.245422616178
24Catherwood Ratings0.738100.5675712.0476-0.8095275.6994231112116
25Pi-Ratings Mean0.642860.6341512.0810-0.6762266.6934227152615
26Dave Congrove0.619050.5853712.0848-2.3629282.6884226162417
27Pigskin Index0.690480.5789512.1193-1.0236270.2384229132216
28Line (Midweek)0.6428612.1667-1.4524247.795422715
29FEI Projections0.571430.5365912.20500.0764260.6994224182219
30Pi-Rate Ratings0.666670.5853712.2095-0.7714269.6184228142417
31PI-Rate Bias0.619050.6097612.2288-0.4093264.3254226162516
32Sagarin Golden Mean0.571430.5122012.2471-1.3338278.3354224182120
33Line (opening)0.595240.5714312.2857-1.6190270.6764225172015
34Beck Elo0.595240.4871812.2888-1.6202283.2154225171920
35Massey Ratings0.595240.5609812.4081-1.5595284.2974225172318
36ARGH Power Ratings0.547620.4750012.4464-1.1250267.1534223191921
37Edward Kambour0.666670.5365912.4590-0.1914272.2724228142219
38Payne Power Ratings0.523810.5609812.4612-1.5850283.6724222202318
39Moore Power Ratings0.595240.5365912.5036-0.7512303.5544225172219
40Dunkel Index0.690480.4878012.5607-0.4536280.5394229132021
41Daniel Curry Index0.731710.5250012.5902-1.0293275.9274130112119
42Born Power Index0.690480.5122012.6929-0.8786302.9624229132120
43Massey Consensus0.547620.4878012.7398-1.7383305.8984223192021
44Billingsley0.500000.4878012.7510-2.4162292.7334221212021
45Howell0.571430.5128212.8571-0.7143271.7854224182019
46Logistic Regression0.500000.5122012.8690-2.3814312.1384221212120
47Least Squares w/ HFA0.595240.5122012.93402.8545278.3874225172120
48Payne W/L0.523810.4390212.9883-1.9721301.7274222201823
49Laffaye RWP0.547620.4390213.00691.1355284.4364223191823
50Cleanup Hitter0.500000.5365913.1786-2.3210319.1814221212219
51Brent Craig0.666670.6666722.3433-10.6167841.23832121
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases