Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2021 Second Half Totals
Through 2022-01-11
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Line (updated) | 0.71322 | 0.46259 | 12.5100 | 0.6072 | 243.551 | 401 | 286 | 115 | 68 | 79 |
2 | Line (Midweek) | 0.69077 | | 12.5499 | 0.6471 | 244.872 | 401 | 277 | 124 | | |
3 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.70075 | 0.46000 | 12.5499 | 0.6621 | 244.089 | 401 | 281 | 120 | 92 | 108 |
4 | Line (opening) | 0.69327 | 0.52023 | 12.6471 | 0.5424 | 251.068 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 180 | 166 |
5 | Roundtable | 0.70607 | 0.51203 | 12.7284 | 0.4792 | 250.236 | 313 | 221 | 92 | 149 | 142 |
6 | System Average | 0.69077 | 0.50000 | 12.7663 | 0.8347 | 250.233 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 198 | 198 |
7 | System Median | 0.67830 | 0.49239 | 12.8062 | 0.7864 | 251.569 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 194 | 200 |
8 | TeamRankings.com | 0.69077 | 0.52174 | 12.8536 | 0.8357 | 256.795 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 204 | 187 |
9 | ESPN FPI | 0.69077 | 0.47089 | 12.8620 | 1.3393 | 258.710 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 186 | 209 |
10 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.68329 | 0.43687 | 12.9094 | 0.4542 | 253.158 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 173 | 223 |
11 | FEI Projections | 0.68750 | 0.49873 | 12.9232 | 0.3387 | 255.325 | 400 | 275 | 125 | 196 | 197 |
12 | Bihl System | 0.70248 | 0.49722 | 12.9301 | 0.2500 | 254.820 | 363 | 255 | 108 | 179 | 181 |
13 | David Harville | 0.69077 | 0.46582 | 12.9305 | 0.4803 | 255.005 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 184 | 211 |
14 | Brent Craig | 0.71429 | 0.52355 | 12.9315 | 0.7749 | 258.543 | 364 | 260 | 104 | 189 | 172 |
15 | Edward Kambour | 0.69327 | 0.47222 | 12.9581 | 0.6587 | 255.632 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 187 | 209 |
16 | Dokter Entropy | 0.69250 | 0.46565 | 12.9633 | 1.0217 | 262.196 | 400 | 277 | 123 | 183 | 210 |
17 | Laz Index | 0.69576 | 0.49495 | 12.9651 | 0.8169 | 258.561 | 401 | 279 | 122 | 196 | 200 |
18 | Sagarin Recent | 0.68329 | 0.48485 | 12.9943 | 0.5106 | 260.414 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 192 | 204 |
19 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.67581 | 0.46212 | 12.9945 | 0.4566 | 256.537 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 183 | 213 |
20 | Sagarin Points | 0.68828 | 0.45316 | 13.0082 | 0.4445 | 257.926 | 401 | 276 | 125 | 179 | 216 |
21 | Pigskin Index | 0.67082 | 0.49046 | 13.0448 | 0.9206 | 261.144 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 180 | 187 |
22 | DP Dwiggins | 0.70101 | 0.49602 | 13.0628 | 1.3693 | 266.616 | 398 | 279 | 119 | 187 | 190 |
23 | Payne Predict | 0.70823 | 0.48737 | 13.0865 | 0.5846 | 265.448 | 401 | 284 | 117 | 193 | 203 |
24 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.67581 | 0.50127 | 13.0953 | 0.9686 | 264.247 | 401 | 271 | 130 | 197 | 196 |
25 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.68579 | 0.49747 | 13.0961 | 1.0840 | 264.370 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 197 | 199 |
26 | Beck Elo | 0.69327 | 0.51263 | 13.1021 | 1.1038 | 265.591 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 203 | 193 |
27 | Talisman Red | 0.67839 | 0.48092 | 13.1038 | 0.3416 | 265.505 | 398 | 270 | 128 | 189 | 204 |
28 | Donchess Inference | 0.69825 | 0.48329 | 13.1048 | 0.7736 | 262.332 | 401 | 280 | 121 | 188 | 201 |
29 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.68579 | 0.48454 | 13.1075 | 1.0182 | 262.925 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 188 | 200 |
30 | Dunkel Index | 0.66833 | 0.49242 | 13.1188 | 1.2242 | 262.208 | 401 | 268 | 133 | 195 | 201 |
31 | Howell | 0.71679 | 0.48168 | 13.1240 | 0.4676 | 262.054 | 399 | 286 | 113 | 184 | 198 |
32 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.69250 | 0.47089 | 13.1356 | 0.7023 | 264.443 | 400 | 277 | 123 | 186 | 209 |
33 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.71072 | 0.48438 | 13.1521 | 0.5686 | 266.275 | 401 | 285 | 116 | 186 | 198 |
34 | Stat Fox | 0.66584 | 0.49737 | 13.1522 | 2.3942 | 268.566 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 189 | 191 |
35 | Massey Ratings | 0.67082 | 0.46970 | 13.1850 | 0.4600 | 263.324 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 186 | 210 |
36 | Born Power Index | 0.67082 | 0.49495 | 13.1859 | 1.3675 | 268.773 | 401 | 269 | 132 | 196 | 200 |
37 | Linear Regression | 0.69077 | 0.49747 | 13.1928 | 0.4825 | 267.460 | 401 | 277 | 124 | 197 | 199 |
38 | Stephen Kerns | 0.69327 | 0.49873 | 13.2312 | 0.9541 | 263.526 | 401 | 278 | 123 | 197 | 198 |
39 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.70324 | 0.46717 | 13.2347 | 0.0998 | 269.784 | 401 | 282 | 119 | 185 | 211 |
40 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68329 | 0.47222 | 13.2498 | 0.6096 | 268.991 | 401 | 274 | 127 | 187 | 209 |
41 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.68579 | 0.50000 | 13.2516 | 1.1222 | 272.744 | 401 | 275 | 126 | 198 | 198 |
42 | Keeper | 0.70854 | 0.51020 | 13.2882 | 1.3486 | 273.753 | 398 | 282 | 116 | 200 | 192 |
43 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.72818 | 0.48485 | 13.3821 | 1.3665 | 279.104 | 401 | 292 | 109 | 192 | 204 |
44 | Massey Consensus | 0.72818 | 0.47089 | 13.4266 | 1.3417 | 277.534 | 401 | 292 | 109 | 186 | 209 |
45 | Dave Congrove | 0.66250 | 0.50000 | 13.4386 | 1.1211 | 277.764 | 400 | 265 | 135 | 197 | 197 |
46 | Laffaye RWP | 0.69275 | 0.50000 | 13.5830 | 1.0170 | 286.990 | 345 | 239 | 106 | 170 | 170 |
47 | Billingsley | 0.72070 | 0.46212 | 13.6496 | 0.6766 | 292.054 | 401 | 289 | 112 | 183 | 213 |
48 | Loudsound.org | 0.68367 | 0.47606 | 13.6862 | -1.9923 | 281.273 | 392 | 268 | 124 | 179 | 197 |
49 | Payne W/L | 0.71571 | 0.46954 | 13.8109 | -0.1546 | 292.611 | 401 | 287 | 114 | 185 | 209 |
50 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.65337 | 0.46875 | 14.3604 | 0.9542 | 316.503 | 401 | 262 | 139 | 180 | 204 |
51 | Super List | 0.70574 | 0.50886 | 15.1764 | 1.4997 | 351.861 | 401 | 283 | 118 | 201 | 194 |
52 | Logistic Regression | 0.67830 | 0.47222 | 15.4058 | -2.1711 | 369.469 | 401 | 272 | 129 | 187 | 209 |
53 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66584 | 0.51515 | 15.6582 | 0.6268 | 372.986 | 401 | 267 | 134 | 204 | 192 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases