Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2022 Season Totals
Through 2023-01-10
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Line (Midweek) | 0.72036 | | 12.0599 | 0.5664 | 234.538 | 776 | 559 | 217 | | |
2 | Line (updated) | 0.71521 | 0.49280 | 12.0651 | 0.6012 | 233.847 | 776 | 555 | 221 | 171 | 176 |
3 | Line (opening) | 0.70619 | 0.50779 | 12.0805 | 0.6617 | 236.294 | 776 | 548 | 228 | 326 | 316 |
4 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.71392 | 0.46903 | 12.0921 | 0.5844 | 234.884 | 776 | 554 | 222 | 212 | 240 |
5 | ESPN FPI | 0.70351 | 0.50526 | 12.2733 | 0.9943 | 244.335 | 769 | 541 | 228 | 384 | 376 |
6 | Dokter Entropy | 0.70361 | 0.49086 | 12.2791 | 1.0174 | 243.062 | 776 | 546 | 230 | 376 | 390 |
7 | System Median | 0.69330 | 0.50859 | 12.3608 | 0.5109 | 246.750 | 776 | 538 | 238 | 385 | 372 |
8 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.71134 | 0.49208 | 12.3640 | 0.9370 | 246.959 | 776 | 552 | 224 | 373 | 385 |
9 | TeamRankings.com | 0.70361 | 0.47895 | 12.3957 | 0.2530 | 249.400 | 776 | 546 | 230 | 364 | 396 |
10 | System Average | 0.68814 | 0.49935 | 12.4338 | 0.5424 | 248.770 | 776 | 534 | 242 | 383 | 384 |
11 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.71134 | 0.49211 | 12.4384 | 1.0485 | 251.072 | 776 | 552 | 224 | 374 | 386 |
12 | Donchess Inference | 0.70103 | 0.52185 | 12.4516 | 0.4972 | 250.995 | 776 | 544 | 232 | 394 | 361 |
13 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.70232 | 0.49020 | 12.4605 | 1.0799 | 251.311 | 776 | 545 | 231 | 375 | 390 |
14 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.70747 | 0.50651 | 12.4622 | -0.1380 | 249.689 | 776 | 549 | 227 | 389 | 379 |
15 | Massey Ratings | 0.69716 | 0.53194 | 12.4786 | -0.0418 | 251.724 | 776 | 541 | 235 | 408 | 359 |
16 | David Harville | 0.69459 | 0.50914 | 12.4966 | 0.0855 | 253.125 | 776 | 539 | 237 | 390 | 376 |
17 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.68041 | 0.50651 | 12.5151 | -0.0336 | 253.531 | 776 | 528 | 248 | 389 | 379 |
18 | Sagarin Points | 0.68943 | 0.50392 | 12.5489 | -0.1454 | 253.307 | 776 | 535 | 241 | 386 | 380 |
19 | Pigskin Index | 0.70232 | 0.48971 | 12.5657 | 1.0377 | 255.484 | 776 | 545 | 231 | 357 | 372 |
20 | Sagarin Recent | 0.69974 | 0.49153 | 12.6528 | -0.0329 | 257.407 | 776 | 543 | 233 | 377 | 390 |
21 | Edward Kambour | 0.68863 | 0.48564 | 12.6617 | 0.5814 | 259.395 | 774 | 533 | 241 | 372 | 394 |
22 | FEI Projections | 0.67572 | 0.49433 | 12.6622 | -1.6793 | 261.959 | 626 | 423 | 203 | 305 | 312 |
23 | Brent Craig | 0.70330 | 0.45492 | 12.6782 | 1.2032 | 256.102 | 728 | 512 | 216 | 328 | 393 |
24 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.69728 | 0.47582 | 12.7339 | 0.7699 | 262.842 | 773 | 539 | 234 | 364 | 401 |
25 | Stat Fox | 0.69010 | 0.49252 | 12.7449 | 2.0602 | 262.238 | 768 | 530 | 238 | 362 | 373 |
26 | Waywardtrends | 0.68428 | 0.51108 | 12.7776 | 0.8167 | 264.981 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 392 | 375 |
27 | Laz Index | 0.68863 | 0.51895 | 12.8401 | 0.4397 | 263.631 | 774 | 533 | 241 | 397 | 368 |
28 | Linear Regression | 0.68481 | 0.49565 | 12.8546 | 1.3205 | 278.097 | 349 | 239 | 110 | 171 | 174 |
29 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.68814 | 0.49479 | 12.8681 | 0.2151 | 267.004 | 776 | 534 | 242 | 380 | 388 |
30 | Bihl System | 0.67317 | 0.48157 | 12.8694 | 0.7020 | 271.105 | 410 | 276 | 134 | 196 | 211 |
31 | Talisman Red | 0.69201 | 0.52344 | 12.9252 | 0.2529 | 271.807 | 776 | 537 | 239 | 402 | 366 |
32 | Dave Congrove | 0.68428 | 0.50717 | 12.9343 | 0.9805 | 267.934 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 389 | 378 |
33 | Born Power Index | 0.69459 | 0.47917 | 13.0384 | 1.2843 | 276.156 | 776 | 539 | 237 | 368 | 400 |
34 | Massey Consensus | 0.68170 | 0.47005 | 13.0411 | 1.4341 | 279.200 | 776 | 529 | 247 | 361 | 407 |
35 | Roundtable | 0.68340 | 0.50298 | 13.0444 | 0.5502 | 279.380 | 518 | 354 | 164 | 253 | 250 |
36 | Dunkel Index | 0.69648 | 0.49631 | 13.0713 | 1.2361 | 279.665 | 682 | 475 | 207 | 336 | 341 |
37 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.67526 | 0.47891 | 13.0938 | -0.0512 | 276.669 | 776 | 524 | 252 | 352 | 383 |
38 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.68000 | 0.48172 | 13.1106 | -0.0252 | 276.591 | 775 | 527 | 248 | 369 | 397 |
39 | Beck Elo | 0.67784 | 0.48037 | 13.1371 | 0.8316 | 277.478 | 776 | 526 | 250 | 367 | 397 |
40 | Payne Predict | 0.68428 | 0.47320 | 13.1513 | 0.7929 | 278.935 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 362 | 403 |
41 | Keeper | 0.69548 | 0.52480 | 13.1567 | 1.6739 | 279.270 | 775 | 539 | 236 | 402 | 364 |
42 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.68564 | 0.50065 | 13.1672 | 0.7610 | 280.958 | 773 | 530 | 243 | 383 | 382 |
43 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.67784 | 0.46143 | 13.2668 | 1.9858 | 281.530 | 776 | 526 | 250 | 341 | 398 |
44 | DP Dwiggins | 0.69290 | 0.48656 | 13.2723 | -0.9342 | 283.183 | 775 | 537 | 238 | 362 | 382 |
45 | Howell | 0.67655 | 0.47684 | 13.4124 | 0.2463 | 294.056 | 776 | 525 | 251 | 350 | 384 |
46 | Billingsley | 0.66452 | 0.50261 | 13.4379 | 0.1611 | 292.406 | 775 | 515 | 260 | 385 | 381 |
47 | Payne W/L | 0.65851 | 0.48956 | 13.5289 | -0.2410 | 295.208 | 776 | 511 | 265 | 375 | 391 |
48 | Laffaye RWP | 0.68283 | 0.48039 | 13.5330 | -0.0155 | 291.424 | 722 | 493 | 229 | 343 | 371 |
49 | Stephen Kerns | 0.69072 | 0.48429 | 13.8967 | 0.7545 | 312.164 | 776 | 536 | 240 | 370 | 394 |
50 | Loudsound.org | 0.66435 | 0.51679 | 13.9540 | -3.3022 | 309.256 | 718 | 477 | 241 | 354 | 331 |
51 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.66624 | 0.48568 | 14.0026 | 0.9886 | 310.134 | 776 | 517 | 259 | 373 | 395 |
52 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.64820 | 0.46996 | 14.0045 | 0.5626 | 310.485 | 776 | 503 | 273 | 352 | 397 |
53 | Logistic Regression | 0.64756 | 0.53623 | 14.2849 | -0.8567 | 362.924 | 349 | 226 | 123 | 185 | 160 |
54 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.66225 | 0.53512 | 14.3719 | 1.5603 | 327.602 | 302 | 200 | 102 | 160 | 139 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases