Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Season Totals

Through 2022-10-02
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (updated)0.756550.5537211.88580.3464217.145267202656754
2Line (Midweek)0.7677911.91010.3109218.36726720562
3Line (opening)0.752810.5068511.91010.4120219.77526720166111108
4Computer Adjusted Line0.756550.4430411.96820.2753218.521267202657088
5ESPN FPI0.746150.4882812.25020.0871229.14926019466125131
6Dokter Entropy0.730340.4618312.33230.5712230.66926719572121141
7TeamRankings.com0.730340.4730812.4423-0.3494238.94526719572123137
8System Median0.707870.4769212.6022-0.1018239.30526718978124136
9PI-Rate Bias0.726590.4809212.64871.0322242.28526719473126136
10Pigskin Index0.722850.4581712.65541.2549242.31126719374115136
11Versus Sports Simulator0.747170.4559412.67290.8436246.95726519867119142
12Pi-Ratings Mean0.726590.4618312.68200.6611239.34026719473121141
13Brent Craig0.723080.4023412.69270.5180241.50226018872103153
14System Average0.696630.4828912.7216-0.1537242.24626718681127136
15Sagarin Ratings0.737830.4866912.7473-0.8817246.22226719770128135
16Sagarin Points0.726590.4885512.7727-0.9517250.89826719473128134
17Pi-Rate Ratings0.734080.4559412.79180.9805244.59526719671119142
18David Harville0.722850.4943012.8103-0.8162248.37726719374130133
19Massey Ratings0.726590.4885512.8297-1.0170247.50026719473128134
20Donchess Inference0.741570.5058812.8473-0.6164256.13726719869129126
21Payne Power Ratings0.730340.4866912.8734-1.0277247.99126719572128135
22Sagarin Golden Mean0.696630.4943012.8772-0.9531251.34226718681130133
23Stat Fox0.702700.4475812.90741.7107249.93125918277111137
24Sagarin Recent0.741570.4580212.9830-0.3464259.36526719869120142
25Payne Predict0.734080.4961813.01130.3341261.13726719671130132
26Massey Consensus0.700370.4144513.10251.1420265.43926718780109154
27Edward Kambour0.694340.4252913.23660.3469270.84126518481111150
28FEI Projections0.666670.3913013.2479-2.2049275.59111778394570
29Talisman Red0.704120.4981013.37090.2531276.21826718879131132
30Born Power Index0.719100.4600813.40241.7414280.69626719275121142
31Keeper0.730340.5285213.44321.6159280.96826719572139124
32Laz Index0.689140.4866913.4989-0.8311273.50326718483128135
33Waywardtrends0.715360.4410613.5312-0.1665276.39926719176116147
34Dave Congrove0.696630.4828913.55810.4703272.01226718681127136
35Beck Elo0.700370.4828913.6203-0.2753277.81726718780127136
36Daniel Curry Index0.685390.4866913.66921.1007290.64226718384128135
37Moore Power Ratings0.710530.4618313.6852-1.2196290.61626618977121141
38DP Dwiggins0.719100.4824913.6854-1.1910290.57126719275124133
39Dunkel Index0.722220.4525113.69371.5157291.727180130508198
40Roundtable0.675210.5398213.7350-0.3846300.23011779386152
41ARGH Power Ratings0.707870.4509813.7622-1.8727287.45626718978115140
42Catherwood Ratings0.685390.4307713.94761.8951293.08026718384112148
43Howell0.681650.4370114.1160-1.6927309.11726718285111143
44Payne W/L0.677900.4542014.1704-2.1832302.06326718186119143
45PerformanZ Ratings0.685390.4524714.2922-0.3967307.67926718384119144
46Billingsley0.657890.4789314.6562-1.7040326.35726617591125136
47Laffaye RWP0.679250.4674314.6920-2.2477318.75426518085122139
48Cleanup Hitter0.677900.4280215.1179-0.3501342.27626718186110147
49Loudsound.org0.650000.4980415.7808-5.8423367.78026016991127128
50Stephen Kerns0.707870.4198516.1710-0.0122394.84526718978110152
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases