Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-09-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Talisman Red0.800000.4888912.3940-0.9864224.624453692223
2Line (Midweek)0.7708312.5417-0.1458235.859967422
3Line (updated)0.750000.5400012.5573-0.0365237.8109672242723
4Line (opening)0.739580.4942512.5885-0.9323242.9529671254344
5Computer Adjusted Line0.750000.4920612.6250-0.1146239.4959672243132
6ESPN FPI0.718750.5157912.78590.0916243.3909669274946
7TeamRankings.com0.750000.4947412.80320.6136249.4319672244748
8Versus Sports Simulator0.765960.4516112.87831.2391238.9729472224251
9Pigskin Index0.739580.5814013.19801.4066246.0779671255036
10PI-Rate Bias0.791670.5106413.23341.0520258.1129676204846
11Pi-Ratings Mean0.781250.5368413.28440.5115255.2179675215144
12Payne Predict0.739580.4210513.2874-0.2009263.2939671254055
13System Median0.750000.4105313.3006-0.7981257.1629672243956
14Pi-Rate Ratings0.770830.5212813.39370.6040264.2779674224945
15System Average0.760420.3894713.4580-1.0547263.5759673233758
16Laz Index0.781250.4210513.5121-0.3708267.0219675214055
17Payne Power Ratings0.760420.4315813.5858-0.9227274.9289673234154
18David Harville0.750000.4421113.5959-0.9784266.1649672244253
19Keeper0.739130.4615413.76991.8686277.5399268244249
20Edward Kambour0.791670.4947413.8525-0.0662279.2219676204748
21Dokter Entropy0.739580.4315813.8886-1.3301267.1229671254154
22Stat Fox0.739580.4239113.96890.6564294.5369671253953
23Catherwood Ratings0.760420.4835214.10420.7083281.0369673234447
24Moore Power Ratings0.729170.3894714.1057-2.1070294.4999670263758
25Massey Consensus0.739580.4105314.11790.0931294.6589671253956
26Massey Ratings0.729170.4947414.1204-2.1646306.0819670264748
27Beck Elo0.750000.4947414.2828-0.9420309.3489672244748
28Sagarin Points0.666670.4421114.3433-1.2150306.5839664324253
29Born Power Index0.760420.4736814.37811.2844303.0559673234550
30Sagarin Ratings0.666670.4105314.4100-1.0527306.9659664323956
31Stephen Kerns0.687500.4947414.4446-0.8552315.4859666304748
32Laffaye RWP0.739580.4347814.4750-2.6713322.4089671254052
33Donchess Inference0.750000.3655914.5292-2.4500296.1519672243459
34ARGH Power Ratings0.750000.4680914.8490-3.0990322.5119672244450
35Dave Congrove0.687500.4631614.95350.2154322.4169666304451
36Howell0.687500.4468115.1096-4.2862354.0389666304252
37PerformanZ Ratings0.708330.4526315.1511-2.7349345.3389668284352
38Cleanup Hitter0.708330.4193515.1563-0.6146374.9659668283954
39Billingsley0.739580.4105315.6042-3.2365367.6789671253956
40Payne W/L0.791670.4105315.8964-4.2559379.2129676203956
41Sagarin Golden Mean0.656250.4210516.1992-0.3546434.3509663334055
42Sagarin Recent0.666670.4105316.2041-0.7857432.1139664323956
43DP Dwiggins0.687500.5053816.2917-3.4583393.9179666304746
44Super List0.729170.4947416.44521.6831379.0219670264748
45Daniel Curry Index0.697920.4315816.6061-4.3930448.6109667294154
46ThePowerRank.com0.500000.5000016.7000-16.7000141.40521111
47Dunkel Index0.666670.3888917.78223.9300415.30118126711
48Loudsound.org0.489580.4421117.8958-6.5417502.0339647494253
49FEI Projections0.625000.4842118.4643-7.6926526.7339660364649
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases