Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2020 Season Totals

Through 2021-01-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Computer Adjusted Line0.719100.5146212.88010.9007255.565534384150176166
2Line (updated)0.715360.4940712.89510.8127256.044534382152125128
3Line (Midweek)0.7191012.90170.9448257.308534384150
4ESPN FPI0.734960.5124313.00501.1647262.246532391141268255
5Dokter Entropy0.731570.5202313.00521.6897269.282529387142270249
6TeamRankings.com0.731710.5165713.00771.3342264.054533390143265248
7Donchess Inference0.745140.5260013.02331.6455268.716514383131263237
8Pi-Ratings Mean0.707870.5383113.03310.6440264.111534378156281241
9System Median0.730340.4952013.04381.3908267.524534390144258263
10System Average0.722850.4847913.07491.4282268.413534386148255271
11PI-Rate Bias0.717230.5193113.11230.7731266.643534383151269249
12Pi-Rate Ratings0.715360.5374313.12040.7209267.578534382152280241
13Stephen Kerns0.746400.5177513.16401.7512281.06334725988175163
14David Harville0.728460.5171113.21281.5338276.121534389145272254
15FEI Projections0.726080.5115413.28661.6914281.170533387146266254
16Versus Sports Simulator0.722220.5009713.30901.6531278.888522377145257256
17ThePowerRank.com0.700000.5196113.3985-0.1203279.543520364156265245
18Line (opening)0.691010.4825313.45511.2809282.935534369165221237
19ARGH Power Ratings0.715630.5483213.46371.7057291.007531380151278229
20Massey Consensus0.718050.5209913.49671.9934289.927532382150273251
21Howell0.690980.5150913.50951.0740286.436521360161256241
22Keeper0.732530.4908413.54250.9936282.388501367134241250
23Dunkel Index0.731900.4910513.63232.2680287.564511374137247256
24Massey Ratings0.706440.5000013.64630.8526294.858528373155260260
25Laz Index0.689140.4981013.66361.8644290.701534368166262264
26Beck Elo0.713480.4847913.74342.3591294.619534381153255271
27Sagarin Golden Mean0.705990.4857113.74590.5010294.907534377157255270
28Sagarin Ratings0.719100.4800013.75090.6033294.669534384150252273
29PerformanZ Ratings0.711610.5276213.78061.9755301.128534380154277248
30Sagarin Points0.711610.4885913.79950.6217299.101534380154257269
31Edward Kambour0.694760.4847913.80631.3969296.234534371163255271
32Born Power Index0.726590.4885913.81042.3545302.635534388146257269
33Stat Fox0.704120.5147313.83713.0321300.028534376158262247
34Moore Power Ratings0.695490.4914013.84411.2791293.824532370162257266
35Catherwood Ratings0.709740.4990313.91203.0805305.400534379155256257
36Talisman Red0.712420.5133313.98400.7883304.77730621888154146
37Sagarin Recent0.713480.4904914.12440.7035308.036534381153258268
38Dave Congrove0.675420.5200014.47251.5965326.822533360173273252
39Cleanup Hitter0.685010.4901614.58731.1965333.430527361166249259
40Roundtable0.708680.4825614.60501.7983357.728357253104166178
41Super List0.699250.4828214.71082.0506331.095532372160253271
42Daniel Curry Index0.704060.4774114.78301.4754356.645517364153243266
43Loudsound.org0.659620.5252715.5285-2.2896386.431473312161239216
44Laffaye RWP0.520000.4000016.0400-0.4800335.4322513121015
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases