Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2017 Season Totals
Through 2018-01-09
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Line (updated) | 0.73590 | 0.53077 | 12.2750 | 0.1763 | 246.617 | 780 | 574 | 206 | 276 | 244 |
2 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.73462 | 0.53188 | 12.2878 | 0.1699 | 246.636 | 780 | 573 | 207 | 292 | 257 |
3 | Line (Midweek) | 0.73205 | | 12.3154 | 0.2987 | 246.627 | 780 | 571 | 209 | | |
4 | Line (opening) | 0.71538 | 0.51192 | 12.4051 | 0.4526 | 249.827 | 780 | 558 | 222 | 322 | 307 |
5 | ESPN FPI | 0.73077 | 0.51248 | 12.4195 | 0.7077 | 248.996 | 780 | 570 | 210 | 390 | 371 |
6 | The Sports Cruncher | 0.73788 | 0.53197 | 12.4591 | -0.3964 | 255.997 | 763 | 563 | 200 | 391 | 344 |
7 | Dokter Entropy | 0.72949 | 0.50000 | 12.4916 | 0.5629 | 253.181 | 780 | 569 | 211 | 380 | 380 |
8 | Sagarin Points | 0.72949 | 0.52431 | 12.5081 | -0.2262 | 253.335 | 780 | 569 | 211 | 399 | 362 |
9 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.72179 | 0.53482 | 12.6038 | -0.2247 | 257.640 | 780 | 563 | 217 | 407 | 354 |
10 | TeamRankings.com | 0.73590 | 0.51455 | 12.6187 | 0.8390 | 253.192 | 780 | 574 | 206 | 389 | 367 |
11 | System Average | 0.73205 | 0.48816 | 12.6346 | 0.1971 | 258.260 | 780 | 571 | 209 | 371 | 389 |
12 | System Median | 0.72821 | 0.48732 | 12.6397 | 0.1919 | 258.399 | 780 | 568 | 212 | 365 | 384 |
13 | Atomic Football | 0.74198 | 0.49656 | 12.6431 | -0.3350 | 257.811 | 779 | 578 | 201 | 361 | 366 |
14 | Ashby AccuRatings | 0.74231 | 0.49931 | 12.6640 | 0.4310 | 259.612 | 780 | 579 | 201 | 362 | 363 |
15 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.72436 | 0.51252 | 12.7176 | -0.1869 | 262.586 | 780 | 565 | 215 | 389 | 370 |
16 | Linear Regression | 0.69468 | 0.53179 | 12.7521 | -1.6586 | 267.431 | 357 | 248 | 109 | 184 | 162 |
17 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.73462 | 0.50265 | 12.7652 | 0.5531 | 262.567 | 780 | 573 | 207 | 379 | 375 |
18 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.72179 | 0.50398 | 12.8011 | 0.6465 | 264.341 | 780 | 563 | 217 | 380 | 374 |
19 | Donchess Inference | 0.72365 | 0.49604 | 12.8079 | -0.2873 | 264.827 | 778 | 563 | 215 | 376 | 382 |
20 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.72051 | 0.50789 | 12.8303 | 0.7428 | 266.536 | 780 | 562 | 218 | 386 | 374 |
21 | Pigskin Index | 0.72308 | 0.49108 | 12.8397 | 0.4016 | 266.915 | 780 | 564 | 216 | 358 | 371 |
22 | Liam Bressler | 0.71298 | 0.51644 | 12.8677 | 2.0164 | 266.247 | 763 | 544 | 219 | 377 | 353 |
23 | Laz Index | 0.72949 | 0.47832 | 12.9295 | -0.0183 | 267.210 | 780 | 569 | 211 | 364 | 397 |
24 | ComPughter Ratings | 0.73446 | 0.50798 | 12.9387 | -0.0584 | 270.568 | 772 | 567 | 205 | 382 | 370 |
25 | Born Power Index | 0.72564 | 0.51643 | 12.9739 | 0.5393 | 277.497 | 780 | 566 | 214 | 393 | 368 |
26 | Brent Craig | 0.72727 | 0.47119 | 13.0609 | 0.3614 | 272.355 | 605 | 440 | 165 | 278 | 312 |
27 | ThePowerRank.com | 0.73393 | 0.49733 | 13.1130 | -0.0276 | 276.542 | 778 | 571 | 207 | 372 | 376 |
28 | Sagarin Recent | 0.71282 | 0.50921 | 13.1485 | -0.1220 | 277.826 | 780 | 556 | 224 | 387 | 373 |
29 | Bihl System | 0.70149 | 0.51096 | 13.1642 | -0.4077 | 283.271 | 469 | 329 | 140 | 233 | 223 |
30 | Edward Kambour | 0.72822 | 0.49200 | 13.1962 | -0.2558 | 279.715 | 769 | 560 | 209 | 369 | 381 |
31 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.70823 | 0.49868 | 13.2072 | 0.1592 | 277.833 | 778 | 551 | 227 | 378 | 380 |
32 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.72914 | 0.49932 | 13.2166 | -0.3630 | 281.017 | 779 | 568 | 211 | 365 | 366 |
33 | Stat Fox | 0.71538 | 0.47418 | 13.2744 | 1.4002 | 279.755 | 780 | 558 | 222 | 349 | 387 |
34 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.71667 | 0.48968 | 13.2808 | 1.0987 | 281.307 | 780 | 559 | 221 | 356 | 371 |
35 | Roundtable | 0.70321 | 0.48893 | 13.3062 | -0.8677 | 290.518 | 529 | 372 | 157 | 243 | 254 |
36 | Keeper | 0.73974 | 0.50460 | 13.3353 | 0.4100 | 289.443 | 780 | 577 | 203 | 384 | 377 |
37 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.71410 | 0.52368 | 13.3639 | -1.2571 | 289.047 | 780 | 557 | 223 | 398 | 362 |
38 | Massey Ratings | 0.72564 | 0.49014 | 13.3692 | -0.8905 | 283.711 | 780 | 566 | 214 | 373 | 388 |
39 | Lee Burdorf | 0.71778 | 0.50466 | 13.3961 | 0.3271 | 291.637 | 776 | 557 | 219 | 379 | 372 |
40 | DP Dwiggins | 0.71722 | 0.48985 | 13.4036 | 0.0360 | 286.578 | 778 | 558 | 220 | 362 | 377 |
41 | FEI Projections | 0.70782 | 0.50877 | 13.4938 | -0.0617 | 283.288 | 243 | 172 | 71 | 116 | 112 |
42 | Talisman Red | 0.71391 | 0.48043 | 13.5057 | -0.7093 | 291.081 | 762 | 544 | 218 | 356 | 385 |
43 | Dave Congrove | 0.72692 | 0.51248 | 13.5219 | -0.0885 | 296.489 | 780 | 567 | 213 | 390 | 371 |
44 | Howell | 0.70385 | 0.47645 | 13.5699 | -0.6108 | 296.249 | 780 | 549 | 231 | 354 | 389 |
45 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.70860 | 0.48816 | 13.5759 | 0.8275 | 299.339 | 779 | 552 | 227 | 371 | 389 |
46 | Stephen Kerns | 0.72005 | 0.50604 | 13.6560 | 0.8164 | 305.812 | 768 | 553 | 215 | 377 | 368 |
47 | Billingsley+ | 0.71923 | 0.48095 | 13.7586 | 0.0206 | 307.652 | 780 | 561 | 219 | 366 | 395 |
48 | Beck Elo | 0.69744 | 0.48357 | 13.7694 | 0.1230 | 300.236 | 780 | 544 | 236 | 368 | 393 |
49 | Billingsley | 0.70769 | 0.47500 | 13.8282 | -0.2159 | 307.356 | 780 | 552 | 228 | 361 | 399 |
50 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.70256 | 0.51117 | 13.9599 | 0.1603 | 313.924 | 780 | 548 | 232 | 389 | 372 |
51 | Marsee | 0.70437 | 0.48163 | 13.9743 | 1.7866 | 315.399 | 778 | 548 | 230 | 354 | 381 |
52 | Dunkel Index | 0.71060 | 0.46936 | 13.9870 | 0.7832 | 313.402 | 736 | 523 | 213 | 337 | 381 |
53 | Brent Craig 2 | 0.68282 | 0.45249 | 14.1069 | 1.6418 | 303.502 | 227 | 155 | 72 | 100 | 121 |
54 | Loudsound.org | 0.68717 | 0.51029 | 14.2592 | -3.8246 | 328.546 | 764 | 525 | 239 | 372 | 357 |
55 | Laffaye RWP | 0.69103 | 0.46649 | 14.2882 | -0.6331 | 324.420 | 780 | 539 | 241 | 355 | 406 |
56 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.68333 | 0.48054 | 14.6051 | -0.0216 | 340.375 | 780 | 533 | 247 | 358 | 387 |
57 | NutShell Sports | 0.69103 | 0.47791 | 14.6360 | 0.2520 | 341.971 | 780 | 539 | 241 | 357 | 390 |
58 | Logistic Regression | 0.66667 | 0.53468 | 14.6741 | -4.0584 | 359.438 | 357 | 238 | 119 | 185 | 161 |
59 | Super List | 0.67051 | 0.49605 | 14.9274 | 0.4521 | 355.552 | 780 | 523 | 257 | 377 | 383 |
60 | Massey Consensus | 0.66923 | 0.48620 | 15.0957 | 0.8758 | 353.202 | 780 | 522 | 258 | 370 | 391 |
61 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.65546 | 0.48844 | 15.4850 | -1.1590 | 388.671 | 357 | 234 | 123 | 169 | 177 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases