Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2017 Season Totals

Through 2018-01-09
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (updated)0.735900.5307712.27500.1763246.617780574206276244
2Computer Adjusted Line0.734620.5318812.28780.1699246.636780573207292257
3Line (Midweek)0.7320512.31540.2987246.627780571209
4Line (opening)0.715380.5119212.40510.4526249.827780558222322307
5ESPN FPI0.730770.5124812.41950.7077248.996780570210390371
6The Sports Cruncher0.737880.5319712.4591-0.3964255.997763563200391344
7Dokter Entropy0.729490.5000012.49160.5629253.181780569211380380
8Sagarin Points0.729490.5243112.5081-0.2262253.335780569211399362
9Sagarin Ratings0.721790.5348212.6038-0.2247257.640780563217407354
10TeamRankings.com0.735900.5145512.61870.8390253.192780574206389367
11System Average0.732050.4881612.63460.1971258.260780571209371389
12System Median0.728210.4873212.63970.1919258.399780568212365384
13Atomic Football0.741980.4965612.6431-0.3350257.811779578201361366
14Ashby AccuRatings0.742310.4993112.66400.4310259.612780579201362363
15Sagarin Golden Mean0.724360.5125212.7176-0.1869262.586780565215389370
16Linear Regression0.694680.5317912.7521-1.6586267.431357248109184162
17Pi-Ratings Mean0.734620.5026512.76520.5531262.567780573207379375
18PI-Rate Bias0.721790.5039812.80110.6465264.341780563217380374
19Donchess Inference0.723650.4960412.8079-0.2873264.827778563215376382
20Pi-Rate Ratings0.720510.5078912.83030.7428266.536780562218386374
21Pigskin Index0.723080.4910812.83970.4016266.915780564216358371
22Liam Bressler0.712980.5164412.86772.0164266.247763544219377353
23Laz Index0.729490.4783212.9295-0.0183267.210780569211364397
24ComPughter Ratings0.734460.5079812.9387-0.0584270.568772567205382370
25Born Power Index0.725640.5164312.97390.5393277.497780566214393368
26Brent Craig0.727270.4711913.06090.3614272.355605440165278312
27ThePowerRank.com0.733930.4973313.1130-0.0276276.542778571207372376
28Sagarin Recent0.712820.5092113.1485-0.1220277.826780556224387373
29Bihl System0.701490.5109613.1642-0.4077283.271469329140233223
30Edward Kambour0.728220.4920013.1962-0.2558279.715769560209369381
31Moore Power Ratings0.708230.4986813.20720.1592277.833778551227378380
32ARGH Power Ratings0.729140.4993213.2166-0.3630281.017779568211365366
33Stat Fox0.715380.4741813.27441.4002279.755780558222349387
34Catherwood Ratings0.716670.4896813.28081.0987281.307780559221356371
35Roundtable0.703210.4889313.3062-0.8677290.518529372157243254
36Keeper0.739740.5046013.33530.4100289.443780577203384377
37Payne Power Ratings0.714100.5236813.3639-1.2571289.047780557223398362
38Massey Ratings0.725640.4901413.3692-0.8905283.711780566214373388
39Lee Burdorf0.717780.5046613.39610.3271291.637776557219379372
40DP Dwiggins0.717220.4898513.40360.0360286.578778558220362377
41FEI Projections0.707820.5087713.4938-0.0617283.28824317271116112
42Talisman Red0.713910.4804313.5057-0.7093291.081762544218356385
43Dave Congrove0.726920.5124813.5219-0.0885296.489780567213390371
44Howell0.703850.4764513.5699-0.6108296.249780549231354389
45Daniel Curry Index0.708600.4881613.57590.8275299.339779552227371389
46Stephen Kerns0.720050.5060413.65600.8164305.812768553215377368
47Billingsley+0.719230.4809513.75860.0206307.652780561219366395
48Beck Elo0.697440.4835713.76940.1230300.236780544236368393
49Billingsley0.707690.4750013.8282-0.2159307.356780552228361399
50PerformanZ Ratings0.702560.5111713.95990.1603313.924780548232389372
51Marsee0.704370.4816313.97431.7866315.399778548230354381
52Dunkel Index0.710600.4693613.98700.7832313.402736523213337381
53Brent Craig 20.682820.4524914.10691.6418303.50222715572100121
54Loudsound.org0.687170.5102914.2592-3.8246328.546764525239372357
55Laffaye RWP0.691030.4664914.2882-0.6331324.420780539241355406
56Cleanup Hitter0.683330.4805414.6051-0.0216340.375780533247358387
57NutShell Sports0.691030.4779114.63600.2520341.971780539241357390
58Logistic Regression0.666670.5346814.6741-4.0584359.438357238119185161
59Super List0.670510.4960514.92740.4521355.552780523257377383
60Massey Consensus0.669230.4862015.09570.8758353.202780522258370391
61Least Squares w/ HFA0.655460.4884415.4850-1.1590388.671357234123169177
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases