Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-10-17
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Catherwood Ratings0.770270.5000013.74320.6351276.443148114347070
2Dokter Entropy0.742550.4533013.3326-0.0569262.21936927495165199
3PI-Rate Bias0.737130.4930713.33091.1883265.24936927297178183
4Donchess Inference0.737130.4634813.4910-0.3945273.03236927297165191
5Pi-Ratings Mean0.734420.5041813.16831.0122260.73236927198181178
6Laz Index0.734420.4779013.37370.4474268.92236927198173189
7Line (Midweek)0.7344212.74390.2859247.85036927198
8Massey Consensus0.729000.5054913.78481.1364290.204369269100184180
9Computer Adjusted Line0.726290.4913012.77780.2683248.714369268101113117
10System Median0.726290.4540413.12680.3254259.061369268101163196
11Edward Kambour0.726290.4917613.63100.7205276.281369268101179185
12Line (updated)0.723580.5300512.74930.2263248.0573692671029786
13Line (opening)0.723580.4786612.8672-0.0136252.378369267102157171
14System Average0.723580.4710713.18020.2488262.160369267102171192
15Pi-Rate Ratings0.723580.5097013.32391.0919265.791369267102184177
16ARGH Power Ratings0.723580.5169513.7859-0.8482298.157369267102183171
17Super List0.720870.4889515.42001.6295360.233369266103177185
18TeamRankings.com0.718160.4404413.39480.6513270.322369265104159202
19David Harville0.718160.4517913.38170.0675270.463369265104164199
20Massey Ratings0.712740.4972513.7107-0.5166290.063369263106181183
21Keeper0.712330.5208913.57321.1017294.406365260105187172
22Versus Sports Simulator0.711170.4640913.53350.6210278.709367261106168194
23Stat Fox0.710030.4827613.69381.9812281.237369262107168180
24Payne W/L0.710030.4835214.8618-1.3288346.486369262107176188
25Laffaye RWP0.709590.5070014.1342-0.5723320.415365259106181176
26ESPN FPI0.707320.4642913.19550.9594262.707369261108169195
27Payne Power Ratings0.704610.4670313.9989-0.3482305.002369260109170194
28Dave Congrove0.704610.5109914.03620.8554300.188369260109186178
29Talisman Red0.704400.5031813.6429-0.1258277.92731822494158156
30Sagarin Recent0.701900.4725314.19080.3460326.850369259110172192
31Billingsley0.701900.5041314.1357-0.4133317.301369259110183180
32Moore Power Ratings0.699190.4752713.60980.1048286.309369258111173191
33Sagarin Ratings0.699190.4587913.62860.1121281.396369258111167197
34Beck Elo0.699190.4752713.84530.3903304.775369258111173191
35Howell0.699190.5070413.9093-0.8088305.321369258111180175
36Born Power Index0.699190.4752713.92701.2126288.664369258111173191
37Pigskin Index0.696480.5145313.35771.0491263.383369257112177167
38Sagarin Points0.696480.4642913.72500.0905283.910369257112169195
39Daniel Curry Index0.696480.4615414.5630-0.4518329.598369257112168196
40Sagarin Golden Mean0.688350.4725314.08810.2220313.762369254115172192
41PerformanZ Ratings0.688350.4738314.7224-0.3847339.966369254115172191
42Dunkel Index0.687290.5052314.03851.4615304.32029120091145142
43Cleanup Hitter0.685640.4777814.28190.7020322.348369253116172188
44Stephen Kerns0.682930.5164814.64141.0949343.744369252117188176
45DP Dwiggins0.682070.4957514.8668-0.8288344.430368251117175178
46FEI Projections0.674210.5140213.22810.3185262.49122114972110104
47Roundtable0.672730.4882614.90451.0591355.97222014872104109
48Payne Predict0.672090.4368114.71560.0615339.940369248121159205
49Brent Craig0.666670.4902014.1392-1.1737299.1815134172526
50Bihl System0.627450.4705914.10900.2725284.5285132192427
51Loudsound.org0.622280.4833315.7880-3.9946402.652368229139174186
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases