Baseball
I am currently calculating six methods of obtaining a prediction for the total runs
scored per game.
| over_under | The run total line. |
| Method 3 | Simply the average number of runs scored per game at this stadium. |
| Method 2 | (RPGFhome + RPGAroad - RPGla) + (RPGFroad + RPGAhome - RPGla) |
| Method 1 | Similar to method 2 except using the starting pitcher's RPGA rather than the team RPGA |
| Method 4 | Same as method 2 except adjusting for a ballpark effect |
| Method 5 | Same as method 1 except adjusting for a ballpark effect |
Where ....
| RPGF = team runs per game for |
| RPGA = team runs per game against |
| home = home team when playing at home |
| road = road team when playing on road |
| la = overall league average |
And five ways of calculating run differential.
| Line | +/- means home/road is favored with odds of line/100 |
| Prediction 2 | (RPGFhome + RPGAroad - RPGla) - (RPGFroad + RPGAhome - RPGla) |
| Prediction 1 | Similar to method 2 except using the starting pitcher's RPGA rather than the team RPGA |
| Prediction 3 | Same as method 2 except adjusting for a ballpark effect |
| Prediction 4 | Same as method 1 except adjusting for a ballpark effect |