Welcome to the 19th annual NCAA PT Awards.
The purpose of these awards is to help raise the publicity for those systems that have been
superior in various qualities of interest.  Awards are be based entirely on the numbers
I've monitored with my prediction tracker web pages. For the 2018 season I followed the
weekly performance of 63 computer rating  systems.
LSU rode a hot quarterback to one of the most impressive offenses ever seen and became the firsrt
#1 seed to win the playoffs (out of 6 tries)



  MOST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Entire Season)

Winner:  Pigskin Index



  This year I collected the predictions of 774 games involving two FBS teams.  The system that picked
the most correct winners was Gary Hawley's Pigskin Index , 590-184, 76.234%. Pigskin has best the best straight
up twice before, but the last was ten years agoin 2009.  The winning percentage jumped 2% over last
season is one of the better all time. 16 systems did better than last year's first place record.
Laz Index and FEI Projects finished a close season only 1 game behind. The line finished in 19th place,
doing 1 game better than the midweek line and 4 games better than the opening line.


2019 Winner: Pigskin Index (76.23%)
2018 Winner: Dokter Entropy (74.77%)
2017 Winner: Ashby Accuratings (74.23%)
2016 Winner: Dokter Entropy, Catherwood Rating System  (72.9%)
2015 Winner: Ted Thompson Average record(78.361%), Pi-Rate Mean
2014 Winner: Ted Thompson CAL
2013 Winner: Ted Thompson SPRS
2012 Winner: Hank Trexler
2011 Winner: Covers.com, Tempo Free Gridiron
2010 Winner: Dokter Entropy
2009 Winner: Pigskin Index
2008 Winner: System Average, System Median
2007 Winner: StatFox
2006 Winner: Thompson SPRS, system average, Sagarin predictive, & Sagarin overall
2005 Winner: Pigskin Index
2004 Winner: Jeff Sagarin's Overall Rating
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour & Jeff Sagarin's Overall Rating
2002 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
2001 Winner: Massey Ratings
2000 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
1999 Winner: Vegas line




  SMALLEST DEVIATION FROM ACTUAL GAME SCORES (Entire Season)

Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line

  Deviation from the game score is the difference between the game prediction
and the actual result.  A value of zero would mean the score difference is predicted
exactly.  One property of a good system would be to minimize the system's average
game deviation.
  The computer adjusted line had the smallest average absolulte error this year, 12.1873
points.  The computer adjusted line had previously won 4 consective seasons from
2009 to 2013. The updated line had won the previous 5 seasons.  The winning mark
was the lowest we have seen in a while but still almost a point higher than the
all time record.  The updated, midweek and opening line finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
Pi-Rate Mean rounded out the top 5.


2019 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line (12.1873)
2018 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (12.6449)
2017 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (12.2750)
2016 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (12.8984)
2015 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (12.4022)
2014 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (12.4770)
2013 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2012 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line (record 11.26)
2008 Winner: Vegas Line
2007 Winner: Vegas Line
2006 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner: Vegas Line
2004 Winner: Vegas Line
2003 Winner: Vegas Line
2002 Winner: Vegas Line
2001 Winner: Vegas Line
2000 Winner: Vegas Line
1999 Winner: Vegas Line



  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Entire Season)

Winner:  RoundTable
Winner:  Keep Ratings
                                                                                                5
  Beating the spread is not the number one goal for most computer
rating systems.  But it is something that the average person likes
to look at and probably the most popular subject that I get emails
about.  I know that looking at all the games is probably not the
most meaningful of measurements but it is what I have been reporting.
The line of record is taken midweek.  Usually Thursday mornings.
  I am splitting the award this season. Roundtable (54/62%)  finishes fractionally
on top but does not produce ratings for the first couple of weeks.
Keeper (54.53) was only slightly behind but with the full season data.
These numbers are about average for what we have seen the last few years.
The results this season were fairly equally distributed around 50%.


2019 Winner: Roundtable (54.623%), Keeper (54.534)
2018 Winner: Updated Line (55.906%), Pi-Rate Ratings (55.336%)
2017 Winner: Sagarin Ratings (53.482%)
2016 Winner: Updated Line (53.846), Dave Congrove(collegefootballpoll.com) (53.774)
2015 Winner: Updated Line, Computer Adjusted Line, The Sports Cruncher
2014 Winner: Laffaye RWP
2013 Winner: CPA Rankings (record 56.906%)
2012 Winner: Laz Index, Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner: Dunkel Index
2010 Winner: Catherwood Ratings
2009 Winner: Covers.com
2008 Winner: Stephen Kerns
2007 Winner: Nutshell Sports
2006 Winner: Harmon Forecast
2005 Winner: Keeper's College Football Ratings
2004 Winner: Edward Kambour
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour
2002 Winner: Dunkel Index
2001 Winner: BMC Picks
2000 Winner: Dunkel Index
1999 Winner: Average across all systems


  SMALLEST AVERAGE GAME BIAS (Entire Season)

Winner:  ESPN FPI

  Bias is a little different from deviation.  Deviation measures the
distance between a prediction and the actual result.  Bias combines
distance and location of the prediction.   Bias measures whether the
predictions are too high or too low.  It could be specified in different
terms but my numbers are relative to the home team.
   ESPN FPI had the lowest average bias at 0.0599. Historically this doesn't
seem that great but was the only system < 0.1.  The median this season was
close to 0.5 points towards the road team.


2019 Winner: ESPN FPI (0.0599)
2018 Winner: Billingsley+  (-0.0020)
2017 Winner: Laz Index
2016 Winner: Pi-Rate Mean
2015 Winner: SportsTrends
2014 Winner: Billingsley Report
2013 Winner: Ted Thompson Average
2012 Winner: College Football By the Numbers
2011 Winner: The Pi-Rate Ratings
2010 Winner: Sagarin Predictor (record 0.0010)
2009 Winner: CPA Retro Rankings
2008 Winner; Opening Line
2007 Winner: Thompson SPRS
2006 Winner: Congrove Computer Rankings
2005 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2004 Winner: CPA Rankings
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour
2002 Winner: Gupta Power Ratings
2001 Winner: Flyman
2000 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
1999 Winner: Jeff Sagarin




  MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR (Entire Season)

Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line

  This award is based on mean square error. Mean square error takes
into account both deviation and bias and is perhaps the most commonly
used measure of evaluating estimators. A key feature is a larger penalty
for being farther from the actual result.
  The computer adjusted line had the lowest mean square error, 241.469.  The
top 5 are all the same systems as in absolute error with a slightly different
order.  The updated had won the previous 5 seasons.


2019 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line (241.469)
2018 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (260.228)
2017 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (246.617)
2016 Winner: Updated vegas line (276.082)
2015 Winner: Updated vegas line (250.418)
2014 Winner: Updated vegas line (249.765)
2013 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2012 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner: The Vegas Line  (record 206.152)
2008 Winner: The Vegas Line
2007 Winner: The Vegas Line
2006 Winner: The Vegas Line
2005 Winner: The Vegas Line
2004 Winner: The Vegas Line
2003 Winner: The Vegas Line
2002 Winner: The Vegas Line
2001 Winner: The Vegas Line
2000 Winner: The Vegas Line
1999 Winner: The Vegas Line



    ------------------------



  It is debatable how meaningful rating systems are in the early
parts of the season.  How can you rate the teams in the first
week of the season when no teams have played a game yet?  The playoff
committee waits until mid October before releasing its first ranking
of teams.  Some systems choose to wait until around this time
before being made public. Looking at only the second half of the
season also gives an estimate of how well a system does based
only(or mostly) on data from the current year.




   MOST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Second Half of Season)



Winner:  Pigskin Index


  The second half data started with week 8 and consisted of 374 games
between two FBS teams.  Pigskin Index also takes home the best ATS record for
the second half, (75.4%).  This was one game ahead of Sonny Moore and Laz Index.
One of the few seasons of late where we have seen better than 75%.  The updated
line tanked to 33rd place in the second half.


2019 Winner:  Pigskin Index      (75.401%)
2018 Winner:  Dave Congrove      (74.390%)
2017 Winner:  Ashby Accuratings  (74.634%)
2016 Winner:  Dokter Entropy     (71.250%)
2015 Winner:  Thompson Average   (78.23%  RECORD)
2014 Winner:  Dave Congrove      (74.822%)
2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2012 Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings
2011 Winner:  Tempo Free Gridiron.
2010 Winner:  Brent Craig
2009 Winner:  Massey Ratings
2008 Winner:  Nutshell Sports
2007 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2006 Winner:  Ed Bemiss
2005 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2004 Winner:  Jeff Sagain, Wesley Colley
2003 Winner:  Born Power Index & Edward Kambour
2002 Winner:  Born Power Index
2001 Winner:  Chris Montgomery
2000 Winner:  Geoff Freeze



  SMALLEST DEVIATION FROM ACTUAL GAME SCORES  (Second Half of Season)

Winner:  Pigskin Index

The best for the second half was the Pigskin Index with an average error of 12.4357.
Almost indentical to what the line won with last season.  The updated line had won
the last 4 seasons but was strangely 20th place this season, behind both midweek and
opening lines.


2019 Winner:  Pigskin Index  (12.4357)
2018 Winner:  Updated Line   (12.4634)
2017 Winner:  Updated Line   (12.3256)
2016 Winner:  Updated Line   (13.6008)
2015 Winner:  Updated Line   (12.4879)
2014 Winner:  Ashby Accuratings
2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2012 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner:  Vegas Line
2010 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line (record 11.2917)
2008 Winner:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2006 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner:  Vegas Line
2004 Winner:  Ken Ashby AccuRatings
2003 Winner:  Vegas Line (opening)
2002 Winner:  Vegas Line
2001 Winner:  Vegas Line
2000 Winner:  Vegas Line



  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD  (Second Half of Season)


Winner:  Sagarin Recent

  Jeff Sagarin's "Recent" ratings were the best against the spread in the second half,
58.378%.  This was a really good mark, better than we have seen for a few seasons but
a percent less than the all time record.  Loudsound at 57.6% was also very good.
Over the second half a majority of systems did better than 50%.  In fact only 8 out of
62 did worse than 50%.


2019 Winner:  Sagarin Recent (58.378%)
2018 Winner:  Updated Line  (58.955%), Computer Adjusted Line (56.584%), TeamRankings.com (55.890%)
2017 Winner:  ESPN FPI      (54.523%)
2016 Winner:  Lee Burdof    (56.041%)
2015 Winner:  Updated Line, Computer Adjusted Line, SportsTrends.
2014 Winner:  Massey Consensus Rank
2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings (Record 59.322%)
2012 Winner:  Least Squares with team HFA
2011 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2010 Winner:  Least squares regression
2009 Winner:  Sonny Moore
2008 Winner:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Nutshell Sports
2006 Winner:  Ed Bemiss
2005 Winner:  The Sports Report                                                        0.0029(
2004 Winner:  StatFox          (record 58.94% against updated line)
2003 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2002 Winner:  The Sports Report
2001 Winner:  BMC Picks
2000 Winner:  The Buck System




  SMALLEST AVERAGE GAME BIAS  (Second Half of Season)

Winner:  RoundTable

 Roundtable ratings had the lowest bias in the second half, 0.0029.  Which is about as unbiased
as you can get.  The numbers this year were predominantly on the positive side with the middle
being around +0.25


2019 Winner:  Roundtable    (0.0029)
2018 Winner:  Laffaye RWP   (-0.0099)
2017 Winner:  Catherwood Ratings   (-0.1561)
2016 Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings
2015 Winner:  CPA Retro
2014 Winner:  Laz Index
2013 Winner:  Colley matrix
2012 Winner:  College Football by the Numbers
2011 Winner:  Stat Fox
2010 Winner:  Sonny Moore
2009 Winner:  Nutshell Girl
2008 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2007 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2006 Winner:  Vegas Line
2005 Winner:  Brent Moore
2004 Winner:  Least Squares Regression
2003 Winner:  Darrly Marsee
2002 Winner:  Massey BCS
2001 Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings
2000 Winner:  Darryl Marsee's Rankings



  MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR (Second Half of Season)


Winner:  Pigskin Index

  Pigskin Index had the smallest average mean square error over the second
half, 245.22. He breaks the updated streak of 4 seasons.  The updated line
was 9th place this season.  Pi-rate, Dokter, and the system mean/median did
better than the line this season.


2018 Winner:  Pigskin Index (245.220)
2017 Winner:  Updated Line  (258.776)
2017 Winner:  Updated Line  (254.153)
2016 Winner:  Updated Line  (297.826)
2015 Winner:  Midweek Line  (254.896)
2014 Winner:  Thompson CAL  (266.308)
2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2012 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line    (record 208.618)
2008 Winner:  Born Power Index
2007 Winner:  Atomic Football
2006 Winner:  Vegas Line
2005 Winner:  Vegas Line
2004 Winner:  Ashby Accuratings
2003 Winner:  Vegas Line
2002 Winner:  Vegas Line
2001 Winner:  Vegas Line
2000 Winner:  Vegas Line



  BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM  

Winner:  Pigskin Index

  To come up with the best overall predictive system I give each system
points for how well they do in all of the above categories.  I then sum up
the points and the system with the highest total is named predictive system
of the year.  So this award goes to the system that is the most well rounded
One flaw can be enough to pull a system out of the running.
 The winner this year was pretty obvious. Gary Hawley's Pigskin Index
came close to sweeping everyting in the second half and won several
full season as well.



2019 Winner:  Pigskin Index
2018 Winner:  Donchess Dratings.com
2017 Winner:  ESPN FPI
2016 Winner:  Updated Line
2015 Winner:  Atomic Football
2014 Winner:  Billingsley+
2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2012 Winner:  System Average
2011 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2010 Winner:  Catherwood Ratings
2009 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2008 Winenr:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Harmon Forecast
2006 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2004 Winner:  Ken Ashby AccuRatings
2003 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2002 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2001 Winner:  Kenneth Massey (non-BCS)
2000 Winner:  ARGH Power Ratings