Welcome to the 18th annual NCAA PT Awards.
The purpose of these awards is to help raise the publicity for those systems that have been
superior in various qualities of interest.  Awards are be based entirely on the numbers
I've monitored with my prediction tracker web pages. For the 2018 season I followed the
weekly performance of 64 computer rating  systems. This is up 3 from last year.
This was the fifth year of the four team playoff system and the #1 team still has not won.
Alabama was thought to be one of the better teams ever yet lost to Clemson by a blowout
in the championship game.



  MOST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Entire Season)

Winner:  Dokter Entropy



  This year I collected the predictions of 773 games involving two FBS teams.  The system that picked
the most correct winners was Dokter Entropy at Time Travel Sports , 578-195, 74.774%.  That winning winning
percentage is about the same as last season.  This is Dokter's third time to win this award.  He has now
won two of the last three seasons. Dokter finished 2 games ahead of second place Sagarin Golden mean.
 This season the Vegas line was rather poor, finishing in 32nd place. Right in the middle of the pack.
The updated line actually did worse than the opening line (by 2 games) and the midweek line (by 3 games).

2018 Winner: Dokter Entropy (74.77%)
2017 Winner: Ashby Accuratings (74.23%)
2016 Winner: Dokter Entropy, Catherwood Rating System  (72.9%)
2015 Winner: Ted Thompson Average record(78.361%), Pi-Rate Mean
2014 Winner: Ted Thompson CAL
2013 Winner: Ted Thompson SPRS
2012 Winner: Hank Trexler
2011 Winner: Covers.com, Tempo Free Gridiron
2010 Winner: Dokter Entropy
2009 Winner: Pigskin Index
2008 Winner: System Average, System Median
2007 Winner: StatFox
2006 Winner: Thompson SPRS, system average, Sagarin predictive, & Sagarin overall
2005 Winner: Pigskin Index
2004 Winner: Jeff Sagarin's Overall Rating
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour & Jeff Sagarin's Overall Rating
2002 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
2001 Winner: Massey Ratings
2000 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
1999 Winner: Vegas line




  SMALLEST DEVIATION FROM ACTUAL GAME SCORES (Entire Season)

Winner:  Updated Line

  Deviation from the game score is the difference between the game prediction
and the actual result.  A value of zero would mean the score difference is predicted
exactly.  One property of a good system would be to minimize the system's average
game deviation.
  The updated line had the smallest average absolute error this year, 12.6449 points.
This is a faily average season as of late but the second highest of the last 5 years.
 The Computer Adjusted line was in second 0.0226 points behind.   As is typical in this
category all of the best systems are systems that are either the line itself or a
derivative of the line. Pi-Ratings Mean was the top non line in 4th place.


2018 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (12.6449)
2017 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (12.2750)
2016 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (12.8984)
2015 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (12.4022)
2014 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (12.4770)
2013 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2012 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line (record 11.26)
2008 Winner: Vegas Line
2007 Winner: Vegas Line
2006 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner: Vegas Line
2004 Winner: Vegas Line
2003 Winner: Vegas Line
2002 Winner: Vegas Line
2001 Winner: Vegas Line
2000 Winner: Vegas Line
1999 Winner: Vegas Line



  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Entire Season)

Winner:  Pi-Rate Ratings

  Beating the spread is not the number one goal for most computer
rating systems.  But it is something that the average person likes
to look at and probably the most popular subject that I get emails
about.  I know that looking at all the games is probably not the
most meaningful of measurements but it is what I have been reporting.
The line of record is taken midweek.  Usually Thursday mornings.
  The best ATS record for 3 of the last 4 seasons now has actually been
the updated line.  But as I have mentioned before this is not really
something you can bet against. You can't use the current line to bet against
a past line.  What it seems to suggest is that line movement at the
end of the week is in the right direction more often than not.
  The best system ATS this year was Pi-Rate Ratings, 420-339, 55.336.
This is the  best record we have seen for a few years.  Pi-Rate Bias
was in second place.  It seemed to be a fairly equal distribution this year
with about half the systems over 50%.


2018 Winner: Updated Line (55.906%), Pi-Rate Ratings (55.336%)
2017 Winner: Sagarin Ratings (53.482%)
2016 Winner: Updated Line (53.846), Dave Congrove(collegefootballpoll.com) (53.774)
2015 Winner: Updated Line, Computer Adjusted Line, The Sports Cruncher
2014 Winner: Laffaye RWP
2013 Winner: CPA Rankings (record 56.906%)
2012 Winner: Laz Index, Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner: Dunkel Index
2010 Winner: Catherwood Ratings
2009 Winner: Covers.com
2008 Winner: Stephen Kerns
2007 Winner: Nutshell Sports
2006 Winner: Harmon Forecast
2005 Winner: Keeper's College Football Ratings
2004 Winner: Edward Kambour
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour
2002 Winner: Dunkel Index
2001 Winner: BMC Picks
2000 Winner: Dunkel Index
1999 Winner: Average across all systems


  SMALLEST AVERAGE GAME BIAS (Entire Season)

Winner:  Billingsley+

  Bias is a little different from deviation.  Deviation measures the
distance between a prediction and the actual result.  Bias combines
distance and location of the prediction.   Bias measures whether the
predictions are too high or too low.  It could be specified in different
terms but my numbers are relative to the home team.
  Richard Billingsley+ had the lowest average bias at -0.0020.  That is about as
close to zero as you can get, on Sagarin in 2010 was closer. Other than
Billingsley they number were not as close to zero. The median being about
+0.60.  The majority of the numbers were positive, meaning over estimating
the home team.


2018 Winner: Billingsley+  (-0.0020)
2017 Winner: Laz Index
2016 Winner: Pi-Rate Mean
2015 Winner: SportsTrends
2014 Winner: Billingsley Report
2013 Winner: Ted Thompson Average
2012 Winner: College Football By the Numbers
2011 Winner: The Pi-Rate Ratings
2010 Winner: Sagarin Predictor (record 0.0010)
2009 Winner: CPA Retro Rankings
2008 Winner; Opening Line
2007 Winner: Thompson SPRS
2006 Winner: Congrove Computer Rankings
2005 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2004 Winner: CPA Rankings
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour
2002 Winner: Gupta Power Ratings
2001 Winner: Flyman
2000 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
1999 Winner: Jeff Sagarin




  MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR (Entire Season)

Winner:  Updated Vegas Line.

  This award is based on mean square error. Mean square error takes
into account both deviation and bias and is perhaps the most commonly
used measure of evaluating estimators. A key feature is a larger penalty
for being farther from the actual result.
  The updated line had the lowest mean square error, 260.228. The top
four were all line based.  The top non line system was Atomic Football
in fifth place


2018 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (260.228)
2017 Winner: Updated Vegas Line (246.617)
2016 Winner: Updated vegas line (276.082)
2015 Winner: Updated vegas line (250.418)
2014 Winner: Updated vegas line (249.765)
2013 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2012 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner: The Vegas Line  (record 206.152)
2008 Winner: The Vegas Line
2007 Winner: The Vegas Line
2006 Winner: The Vegas Line
2005 Winner: The Vegas Line
2004 Winner: The Vegas Line
2003 Winner: The Vegas Line
2002 Winner: The Vegas Line
2001 Winner: The Vegas Line
2000 Winner: The Vegas Line
1999 Winner: The Vegas Line



    ------------------------



  It is debatable how meaningful rating systems are in the early
parts of the season.  How can you rate the teams in the first
week of the season when no teams have played a game yet?  The playoff
committee waits until mid October before releasing its first ranking
of teams.  Some systems choose to wait until around this time
before being made public. Looking at only the second half of the
season also gives an estimate of how well a system does based
only(or mostly) on data from the current year.




   MOST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Second Half of Season)



Winner:  Dave Congrove


  The second half data started with week 8 and consisted of 410 games
between two FBS teams. Dav Congrove of collegefootballpoll.com dad the best
record 305-105, 74.390%. This was a fairly average winning record and one game
worse that Ashby won with last year. It is Congroves second win.
The updated line was an uncharacteristcly low 24th place.


2018 Winner:  Dave Congrove      (74.390%)
2017 Winner:  Ashby Accuratings  (74.634%)
2016 Winner:  Dokter Entropy     (71.250%)
2015 Winner:  Thompson Average   (78.23%  RECORD)
2014 Winner:  Dave Congrove      (74.822%)
2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2012 Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings
2011 Winner:  Tempo Free Gridiron.
2010 Winner:  Brent Craig
2009 Winner:  Massey Ratings
2008 Winner:  Nutshell Sports
2007 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2006 Winner:  Ed Bemiss
2005 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2004 Winner:  Jeff Sagain, Wesley Colley
2003 Winner:  Born Power Index & Edward Kambour
2002 Winner:  Born Power Index
2001 Winner:  Chris Montgomery
2000 Winner:  Geoff Freeze



  SMALLEST DEVIATION FROM ACTUAL GAME SCORES  (Second Half of Season)

Winner:  Updated Line

The best for the second half was the updated line with an average error of 12.4634.
Again, a fairly average number compared to what we have seen in the past.  Versions
of the line took four of the top five places.  Only Pi-Ratings Mean at number four was
not a version of the line.


2018 Winner:  Updated Line   (12.4634)
2017 Winner:  Updated Line   (12.3256)
2016 Winner:  Updated Line   (13.6008)
2015 Winner:  Updated Line   (12.4879)
2014 Winner:  Ashby Accuratings
2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2012 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner:  Vegas Line
2010 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line (record 11.2917)
2008 Winner:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2006 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner:  Vegas Line
2004 Winner:  Ken Ashby AccuRatings
2003 Winner:  Vegas Line (opening)
2002 Winner:  Vegas Line
2001 Winner:  Vegas Line
2000 Winner:  Vegas Line



  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD  (Second Half of Season)


Winner:  TeamRankings.com

  As we have often seen after I moved the line of record to be the midweek line, the
updated line ends up doing very well ATS.  Just don't ask me how to use a current line
to bet against an old line.  The computer Adjusted Line also typically finishes near
the top but only differs from the line about two thirds of the time. So Teamrankings.com
had the best record on those systems with plays on every game, at 55.89%
There wa a fairly even distribution this year with the median right around 50%.


2018 Winner:  Updated Line  (58.955%), Computer Adjusted Line (56.584%), TeamRankings.com (55.890%)
2017 Winner:  ESPN FPI      (54.523%)
2016 Winner:  Lee Burdof    (56.041%)
2015 Winner:  Updated Line, Computer Adjusted Line, SportsTrends.
2014 Winner:  Massey Consensus Rank
2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings (Record 59.322%)
2012 Winner:  Least Squares with team HFA
2011 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2010 Winner:  Least squares regression
2009 Winner:  Sonny Moore
2008 Winner:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Nutshell Sports
2006 Winner:  Ed Bemiss
2005 Winner:  The Sports Report
2004 Winner:  StatFox          (record 58.94% against updated line)
2003 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2002 Winner:  The Sports Report
2001 Winner:  BMC Picks
2000 Winner:  The Buck System




  SMALLEST AVERAGE GAME BIAS  (Second Half of Season)

Winner:  Laffaye RWP

  Laffaye RWP had the lowest bias in the second half, -0.0099.
The numbers this year were predominantly on the positive side with the middle being around +0.75


2018 Winner:  Laffaye RWP   (-0.0099)
2017 Winner:  Catherwood Ratings   (-0.1561)
2016 Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings
2015 Winner:  CPA Retro
2014 Winner:  Laz Index
2013 Winner:  Colley matrix
2012 Winner:  College Football by the Numbers
2011 Winner:  Stat Fox
2010 Winner:  Sonny Moore
2009 Winner:  Nutshell Girl
2008 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2007 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2006 Winner:  Vegas Line
2005 Winner:  Brent Moore
2004 Winner:  Least Squares Regression
2003 Winner:  Darrly Marsee
2002 Winner:  Massey BCS
2001 Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings
2000 Winner:  Darryl Marsee's Rankings



  MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR (Second Half of Season)

Winner: Updated Line


  The updated line had the smallest average mean square error over the second
half, 258.776.  It was the third win in a row and 4 points worse than last year.
The midweek and opening lines, usually right behind the updated line were only
7th and 8th.  All three of the Pi-Rate Ratings were higher.


2017 Winner:  Updated Line  (258.776)
2017 Winner:  Updated Line  (254.153)
2016 Winner:  Updated Line  (297.826)
2015 Winner:  Midweek Line  (254.896)
2014 Winner:  Thompson CAL  (266.308)
2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2012 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line    (record 208.618)
2008 Winner:  Born Power Index
2007 Winner:  Atomic Football
2006 Winner:  Vegas Line
2005 Winner:  Vegas Line
2004 Winner:  Ashby Accuratings
2003 Winner:  Vegas Line
2002 Winner:  Vegas Line
2001 Winner:  Vegas Line
2000 Winner:  Vegas Line



  BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM  

Winner:  Donchess Dratings.com

  To come up with the best overall predictive system I give each system
points for how well they do in all of the above categories.  I then sum up
the points and the system with the highest total is named predictive system
of the year.  So this award goes to the system that is the most well rounded
One flaw can be enough to pull a system out of the running.
  The winner this season came as a complete surprise as I don't necessarily
remember Donchess sticking out during the year.  But looking at the numbers
they are above average across the board. The line actaully has the number
one slot based on my scoring system but I would rather not name the line unless
there was no other worthy candidates.  The computer adjusted line was third.
Atomic Football was fourth, or the second best non line based system.


2018 Winner:  Donchess Dratings.com
2017 Winner:  ESPN FPI
2016 Winner:  Updated Line
2015 Winner:  Atomic Football
2014 Winner:  Billingsley+
2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2012 Winner:  System Average
2011 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2010 Winner:  Catherwood Ratings
2009 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2008 Winenr:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Harmon Forecast
2006 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2004 Winner:  Ken Ashby AccuRatings
2003 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2002 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2001 Winner:  Kenneth Massey (non-BCS)
2000 Winner:  ARGH Power Ratings