Welcome to the 13th annual NCAA PT Awards.
The purpose of these awards is to help raise the publicity for those systems that have been
superior in various qualities of interest.  Most awards will be based entirely on the numbers
I've monitored with my prediction tracker web pages. For the 2013  season I followed the
weekly performance of 70 computer rating  systems. This is down 3 from last year.
Sorry for the long delay.



  MOST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Entire Season)

Winner: Ted Thompson SPRS


  This year I collected predictions on 735 games involving two FBS teams.
This year Ted Thompson SPRS had the best straigh up record at 574-161, 78.1%.
This also sets a new record for this category.  The past record was 76.5% set
just last season.  So this is a pretty big increase. But 21 different systems
did bettert this season that the previous record.  My feeling is that this is
probably due to the increasingly weak schedules that we are seeing.  Nobody
wants to play anyone anymore in fear that they might loose a game.
Pi-rate Ratings were 2 games behind.  Then the midweek line was 3 games back.
So Thompson and Pi-rate were the only systems better than the line, where the
midweek line performed 5 games better than the updated line and 7 better than
the opening line.

2013 Winner: Ted Thompson SPRS  (record 78.095%)
2012 Winner: Hank Trexler
2011 Winner: Covers.com, Tempo Free Gridiron
2010 Winner: Dokter Entropy
2009 Winner: Pigskin Index
2008 Winner: System Average, System Median
2007 Winner: StatFox
2006 Winner: Thompson SPRS, system average, Sagarin predictive, & Sagarin overall
2005 Winner: Pigskin Index
2004 Winner: Jeff Sagarin's Overall Rating
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour & Jeff Sagarin's Overall Rating
2002 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
2001 Winner: Massey Ratings
2000 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
1999 Winner: Vegas line




  SMALLEST DEVIATION FROM ACTUAL GAME SCORES (Entire Season)

Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line

  Deviation from the game score is the difference between the game prediction
and the actual result.  A value of zero would mean the score difference is predicted
exactly.  One property of a good system would be to minimize the system's average
game deviation.
  The Computer Adjusted Line had the smallest absolute error for the 5th year in a row.
The computer adjusted line works similarly to the way the sportsbooks adjust line.  It
starts off equal to the line but fractions are added or taken away from the line depending
on what proportion of the computer systems are on one side of the line.  Where one side
means being at least 1.5 points away from the line.  I think the fact that this 'system'
is beating the line in this category is showing that the computers taken as a whole, can
add useful information.
 The winning mark this year was 12.2361, very similar to last year.  Also t like last three
years the updated line was second and all the aggregate systems are at the top of the list.


2013 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2012 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line (record 11.26)
2008 Winner: Vegas Line
2007 Winner: Vegas Line
2006 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner: Vegas Line
2004 Winner: Vegas Line
2003 Winner: Vegas Line
2002 Winner: Vegas Line
2001 Winner: Vegas Line
2000 Winner: Vegas Line
1999 Winner: Vegas Line




  SMALLEST AVERAGE GAME BIAS (Entire Season)

Winner: Ted Thompson Average


  Bias is a little different from deviation.  Deviation measures the
distance between a prediction and the actual result.  Bias combines
distance and location of the prediction.   Bias measures whether the
predictions are too high or too low.  So if a system has an
average bias of +0.25 that means that on average the system
gives 0.25 points too many to the home team.  But I want to add that
some people are making this out to be nothing  more than a measure of
how good a systems measures home field advantage.  But that is not the
whole story because the accuracy of the ratings of the two teams are jsut as
important.
  Ted Thompson's second entry had the lowest bias for those that completed
the full season, 0.0266.  For the last 3 seasons now the trend has been
the average bias to be below zero. Again, I think this is due to good teams
padding their home schedule with the weakest opponents they can find.


2013 Winner: Ted Thompson Average
2012 Winner: College Football By the Numbers
2011 Winner: The Pi-Rate Ratings
2010 Winner: Sagarin Predictor
2009 Winner: CPA Retro Rankings
2008 Winner; Opening Line
2007 Winner: Thompson SPRS
2006 Winner: Congrove Computer Rankings
2005 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2004 Winner: CPA Rankings
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour
2002 Winner: Gupta Power Ratings
2001 Winner: Flyman
2000 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
1999 Winner: Jeff Sagarin




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Entire Season)


Winner:  CPA Rankings

  Beating the spread is not the number one goal for most computer
rating systems.  But it is something that the average person likes
to look at and probably the most popular subject that I get emails
about.  I know that looking at all the games is probably not the
most meaningful of measurements but it is what I have been reporting.
There was a major change in how the against the spread numbers were
calculated this season.  For the first time I used a midweek line as
the line of record rathert the the most updated line I had.  So the
expectation was that system that really was good against the line would
do better and average systems should still do roughtly 50%. So I am
surprised to see that the winner this season, CPA Rankings, sets at new
record at 412-312, or 56.906%.  This only barely beat the old record
based on the updated line.  CPA Rankings was the only system to better
that mark.   Congrove was four games behind and Catherwood was five back.
  I want to say this was an easy year for systems to beat the spread, 49
systems did better than 50%, and the worst was only 47%.  This was the
second year in a row that the majority of the systems were able to beat vegas.


2013 Winner: CPA Rankings (record 56.906%)
2012 Winner: Laz Index, Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner: Dunkel Index
2010 Winner: Catherwood Ratings
2009 Winner: Covers.com
2008 Winner: Stephen Kerns
2007 Winner: Nutshell Sports
2006 Winner: Harmon Forecast  (record 56.4% against updated line)
2005 Winner: Keeper's College Football Ratings
2004 Winner: Edward Kambour
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour
2002 Winner: Dunkel Index
2001 Winner: BMC Picks
2000 Winner: Dunkel Index
1999 Winner: Average across all systems



  MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR (Entire Season)

Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line

  This award is based on mean square error. Mean square error takes
into account both deviation and bias and is perhaps the most commonly
used measure of evaluating estimators.
The Computer adjusted line takes this category for the third year in a row, with a
MSE of 235.295.  The line was a half point behind.  Both very similar to last season.
The results based on being closest to the final scores are dominated by the
composite systems: systems that average or combine other systems or the lines.


2013 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2012 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner: The Vegas Line  (record 206.152)
2008 Winner: The Vegas Line
2007 Winner: The Vegas Line
2006 Winner: The Vegas Line
2005 Winner: The Vegas Line
2004 Winner: The Vegas Line
2003 Winner: The Vegas Line
2002 Winner: The Vegas Line
2001 Winner: The Vegas Line
2000 Winner: The Vegas Line
1999 Winner: The Vegas Line



    ------------------------


  It is debatable how meaningful rating systems are in the early
parts of the season.  How can you rate the teams in the first
week of the season when no teams have played a game yet?  The BCS
waits until mid October before releasing it's first ranking
of teams.  Some systems choose to wait until around this time
before being made public. Looking at only the second half of the
season also gives an estimate of how well a system does based
only(or mostly) on data from the current year.



   MOST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Second Half of Season)

Winner: CPA Rankings


  The second half data started with week 9 and consisted of 363 games
between two division 1A teams.  CPA Rankings had the most straight up
winners over the second half, 278-85 or 76.684%.  The system median and
system average were the closest behind.  The updated line was 6th.


2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2012 Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings
2011 Winner:  Tempo Free Gridiron.
2010 Winner:  Brent Craig
2009 Winner:  Massey Ratings  (record 77.688%)
2008 Winner:  Nutshell Sports
2007 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2006 Winner:  Ed Bemiss
2005 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2004 Winner:  Jeff Sagain, Wesley Colley
2003 Winner:  Born Power Index & Edward Kambour
2002 Winner:  Born Power Index
2001 Winner:  Chris Montgomery
2000 Winner:  Geoff Freeze




  SMALLEST DEVIATION FROM ACTUAL GAME SCORES  (Second Half of Season)


Winner: CPA Rankings

  CPA Rankings had the lowest absolute error over the second half, 12.1687.
The computer adjusted line usually does well here but was only 8th this season, the
updated line only 13th.

3013 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2012 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner:  Vegas Line
2010 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line (record 11.2917)
2008 Winner:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2006 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner:  Vegas Line
2004 Winner:  Ken Ashby AccuRatings
2003 Winner:  Vegas Line (opening)
2002 Winner:  Vegas Line
2001 Winner:  Vegas Line
2000 Winner:  Vegas Line




  SMALLEST AVERAGE GAME BIAS  (Second Half of Season)

Winner:  Colley Matrix

  BCS system Colley Matrix had the lowest bias in the second half, 0.0266.
The majority of the systems were on the positive side during the second half.
That is what you would expect to see if teams went from blowing out week opponents
at home in the first half to playing closer conference games in the second half.


2013 Winner:  Colley matrix
2012 Winner:  College Football by the Numbers
2011 Winner:  Stat Fox
2010 Winner:  Sonny Moore
2009 Winner:  Nutshell Girl
2008 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2007 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2006 Winner:  Vegas Line
2005 Winner:  Brent Moore
2004 Winner:  Least Squares Regression
2003 Winner:  Darrly Marsee
2002 Winner:  Massey BCS
2001 Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings
2000 Winner:  Darryl Marsee's Rankings




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD  (Second Half of Season)


Winner: CPA Rankings

  CPA ranking had the best against the spread record over all games of the second half,
210-144, 59.32%.  Again, this is a new ATS record, but considering it is the first year to
be compared to the midweek line it remains to be seen how the numbers will differ going forward.


3013 Winner:  CPA Rankings (Record 59.322%)
2012 Winner:  Least Squares with team HFA
2011 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2010 Winner:  Least squares regression
2009 Winner:  Sonny Moore
2008 Winner:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Nutshell Sports
2006 Winner:  Ed Bemiss
2005 Winner:  The Sports Report
2004 Winner:  StatFox          (record 58.94% for updated line)
2003 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2002 Winner:  The Sports Report
2001 Winner:  BMC Picks
2000 Winner:  The Buck System




  MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR (Second Half of Season)


Winner: CPA Rankings

  CPA Rankings wins this category with a mean square error of 234.230.
CPA looks to have almost swept the second half awards so I do think it has to
be pointed out that these rankings are the only rankings that consistently get
sent to me after games have already been played for the week. I really don't
like the fact that these numbers ending up being so much better than anyone else
and setting multiple records.  I would have been a little more suspicious if the
computer adjused line, the winner of this category the last four seasons had come in
number two, but it was down to 5th this season.  We have seen a non line based system
win every 4 to 5 years.


2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2012 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line    (record 208.618)
2008 Winner:  Born Power Index
2007 Winner:  Atomic Football
2006 Winner:  Vegas Line
2005 Winner:  Vegas Line
2004 Winner:  Ashby Accuratings
2003 Winner:  Vegas Line
2002 Winner:  Vegas Line
2001 Winner:  Vegas Line
2000 Winner:  Vegas Line




  BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM  

Winner: CPA Rankings


  To come up with the best overall predictive system I give each system
points for how well they do in all of the above categories.  I then sum up
the points and the system with the highest total is dubbed predictive system
of the year.  So this award goes to the system that is the most well rounded
One flaw can be enough to pull a system out of the running.

 This season, but predominantly during the second half, CPA Rankings was easily
the strongest predictive season.  Catherwood and Born were also a couple of other
systems that had strong season across the board.  And for the first year to include
the midweek line it just seems odd that the midweek line was better than either
the opening line or the updated line.


2013 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2012 Winner:  System Average
2011 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2010 Winner:  Catherwood Ratings
2009 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2008 Winenr:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Harmon Forecast
2006 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2004 Winner:  Ken Ashby AccuRatings
2003 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2002 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2001 Winner:  Kenneth Massey (non-BCS)
2000 Winner:  ARGH Power Ratings