Welcome to the 12th annual NCAA PT Awards.
The purpose of these awards is to help raise the publicity for those systems that have been
superior in various qualities of interest.  Most awards will be based entirely on the numbers
I've monitored with my prediction tracker web pages. For the 2012  season I followed the
weekly performance of 73 computer rating  systems. This is up 5 from last year.
Sorry for the long delay.



  MOST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Entire Season)

Winner: Hank Trexler



  This year I collected predictions on 732 games involving two FBS teams.
This year Hank Trexler had the best straigh up record at 560-169, 76.8%.
Sagarin's predictor ratings and Laz Index were right behind at 76.5%
These are the only three full year systems that did better than the Vegas
Line.  And also very importantly Trexler sets a new record, breaking Argh's
76.48% set all the way backin 2002. So all three of the systems listed above
bettered the previous record.


2012 Winner: Hank Trexler  (record 76.818%)
2011 Winner: Covers.com, Tempo Free Gridiron
2010 Winner: Dokter Entropy
2009 Winner: Pigskin Index
2008 Winner: System Average, System Median
2007 Winner: StatFox
2006 Winner: Thompson SPRS, system average, Sagarin predictive, & Sagarin overall
2005 Winner: Pigskin Index
2004 Winner: Jeff Sagarin's Overall Rating
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour & Jeff Sagarin's Overall Rating
2002 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings (record 76.48%)
2001 Winner: Massey Ratings
2000 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
1999 Winner: Vegas line




  SMALLEST DEVIATION FROM ACTUAL GAME SCORES (Entire Season)

Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line

  Deviation from the game score is the difference between the game prediction
and the actual result.  A value of zero would mean the score difference is predicted
exactly.  One property of a good system would be to minimize the system's average
game deviation.
  The Computer Adjusted Line had the smallest absolute error for the 4th year in a row.
The computer adjusted line works similarly to the way the sportsbooks adjust line.  It
starts off equal to the line but fractions are added or taken away from the line depending
on what proportion of the computer systems are on one side of the line.  Where one side
means being at least 1.5 points away from the line.  I think the fact that this 'system'
is beating the line in this category is showing that the computers taken as a whole, can
add useful information.
 The winning mark this year was 12.1881. Also just like last two year the updated line was
second and all the aggregate systems are at the top of the list.
 You have to look all the way down to 7th place to find the first independent ratings
system.  That was Massey's ratings, which was a about a quarter point behind the leader.


2012 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line (record 11.26)
2008 Winner: Vegas Line
2007 Winner: Vegas Line
2006 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner: Vegas Line
2004 Winner: Vegas Line
2003 Winner: Vegas Line
2002 Winner: Vegas Line
2001 Winner: Vegas Line
2000 Winner: Vegas Line
1999 Winner: Vegas Line




  SMALLEST AVERAGE GAME BIAS (Entire Season)

Winner: College Football by the Numbers


  Bias is a little different from deviation.  Deviation measures the
distance between a prediction and the actual result.  Bias combines
distance and location of the prediction.   Bias measures whether the
predictions are too high or too low.  So if a system has an
average bias of +0.25 that means that on average the system
gives 0.25 points too many to the home team.  But I want to add that
some people are making this out to be nothing  more than a measure of
how good a systems measures home field advantage.  But that is not the
whole story because the accuracy of the ratings of the two teams are jsut as
important.
  I'm giving the award this year to College Football by the Numbers.  A couple
other systems were slightly lower but missed multiple weeks. By the numbers
average bias was 0.0174 this year.  By far the majority of the systems had
bias values that were below zero this season.  That was the case last year
as well.


2012 Winner: College Football By the Numbers
2011 Winner: The Pi-Rate Ratings
2010 Winner: Sagarin Predictor
2009 Winner: CPA Retro Rankings
2008 Winner; Opening Line
2007 Winner: Thompson SPRS
2006 Winner: Congrove Computer Rankings
2005 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2004 Winner: CPA Rankings
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour
2002 Winner: Gupta Power Ratings
2001 Winner: Flyman
2000 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
1999 Winner: Jeff Sagarin




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Entire Season)


Winner: Laz Index
Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line

  Beating the spread is not the number one goal for most computer
rating systems.  But it is something that the average person likes
to look at and probably the most popular subject that I get emails
about.  I know that looking at all the games is probably not the
most meaningful of measurements but it is what I have been reporting.
I'm considering in the future basing the ATS performance on some
midweek line but for for now this is based on the updated line.
  I am going to do something a little different and give the award
to two systems. The Computer Adjusted Line and Laz Index.  Computer
Adjusted line actually had the best percentage at 56.25 but by the
way it is designed it only deviates from the line about one third of
the games.  So perhaps it may not be a fair comparison.  Which is why
I will also give the title to Laz Index which was 397-312, 55.3% when
considered all games.
  This year only 13 systems did worse than 50%, so this was a very good
year for beating the line.  The worse record this year was only 47.3%.


2012 Winner: Laz Index, Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner: Dunkel Index
2010 Winner: Catherwood Ratings
2009 Winner: Covers.com
2008 Winner: Stephen Kerns
2007 Winner: Nutshell Sports
2006 Winner: Harmon Forecast  (record 56.4%)
2005 Winner: Keeper's College Football Ratings
2004 Winner: Edward Kambour
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour
2002 Winner: Dunkel Index
2001 Winner: BMC Picks
2000 Winner: Dunkel Index
1999 Winner: Average across all systems



  MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR (Entire Season)

Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line

  This award is based on mean square error. Mean square error takes
into account both deviation and bias and is perhaps the most commonly
used measure of evaluating estimators.
The Computer adjusted line takes this category for the third year in a row, with a
MSE of 237.003.  The line was a third of a point behind.  After that
the difference is pretty big.  Like with absolute error the leaders here
are the lines and composite variables.  Dokter's Entropy ratings was 5th
with a MSE of 243.702.


2012 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner: The Vegas Line  (record 206.152)
2008 Winner: The Vegas Line
2007 Winner: The Vegas Line
2006 Winner: The Vegas Line
2005 Winner: The Vegas Line
2004 Winner: The Vegas Line
2003 Winner: The Vegas Line
2002 Winner: The Vegas Line
2001 Winner: The Vegas Line
2000 Winner: The Vegas Line
1999 Winner: The Vegas Line



    ------------------------


  It is debatable how meaningful rating systems are in the early
parts of the season.  How can you rate the teams in the first
week of the season when no teams have played a game yet?  The BCS
waits until mid October before releasing it's first ranking
of teams.  Some systems choose to wait until around this time
before being made public. Looking at only the second half of the
season also gives an estimate of how well a system does based
only(or mostly) on data from the current year.



   MOST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Second Half of Season)

Winner: PerformanZ Ratings


  The second half data started with week 9 and consisted of 391 games
between two division 1A teams.  My PerformanZ Ratings had the best record
over the second half 300-91, 76.7%.  Trexler and Sagarin were 1 game back.
This is not a new record but still one of the best seasons ever.  Seven
systems managed to do better than the line.
As for my system, I actually did make a change before the season.  I reduced
the importance of turnover margin.  Research seems to show that although
turnovers strongly predict the past game they do not predict future games.
So it will be interesting to see if this helps my performance long term or if
it was just a one year fluke.


2012 Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings
2011 Winner:  Tempo Free Gridiron.
2010 Winner:  Brent Craig
2009 Winner:  Massey Ratings  (record 77.688%)
2008 Winner:  Nutshell Sports
2007 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2006 Winner:  Ed Bemiss
2005 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2004 Winner:  Jeff Sagain, Wesley Colley
2003 Winner:  Born Power Index & Edward Kambour
2002 Winner:  Born Power Index
2001 Winner:  Chris Montgomery
2000 Winner:  Geoff Freeze




  SMALLEST DEVIATION FROM ACTUAL GAME SCORES  (Second Half of Season)


Winner: Computer Adjusted Line

  The Computer Adjusted Line had the smallest mean absolute error over the second half,
12.0895. This was just .01 points better than the line.  As usual the composite systems
do well.  The best independent system was Pi-Rate Ratings in 4th.


2012 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner:  Vegas Line
2010 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line (record 11.2917)
2008 Winner:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2006 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner:  Vegas Line
2004 Winner:  Ken Ashby AccuRatings
2003 Winner:  Vegas Line (opening)
2002 Winner:  Vegas Line
2001 Winner:  Vegas Line
2000 Winner:  Vegas Line




  SMALLEST AVERAGE GAME BIAS  (Second Half of Season)

Winner:  College Football by the Numbers

  College Football By the Numbers had the lowest bias in the second half, almost zero, -0.0080.
The majority of the systems were on the negative side.


2012 Winner:  College Football by the Numbers
2011 Winner:  Stat Fox
2010 Winner:  Sonny Moore
2009 Winner:  Nutshell Girl
2008 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2007 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2006 Winner:  Vegas Line
2005 Winner:  Brent Moore
2004 Winner:  Least Squares Regression
2003 Winner:  Darrly Marsee
2002 Winner:  Massey BCS
2001 Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings
2000 Winner:  Darryl Marsee's Rankings




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD  (Second Half of Season)


Winner: Least Squares with team HFA

  Least squares regression using a team specific home field advantage had the best against the sprea
record over all games of the second half, 214-168, 56.0%.  This is a very good number.  This is a system
that I maintain, starting it the same time as the BCS begins.  As with the full season, the vast majority
did better than 50% this year. Two systems Regression-Based Analysis and Tempo Free Gridiron performed
poorly to the downside at 44%.


2012 Winner:  Least Squares with team HFA
2011 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2010 Winner:  Least squares regression
2009 Winner:  Sonny Moore
2008 Winner:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Nutshell Sports
2006 Winner:  Ed Bemiss
2005 Winner:  The Sports Report
2004 Winner:  StatFox          (record 58.94%)
2003 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2002 Winner:  The Sports Report
2001 Winner:  BMC Picks
2000 Winner:  The Buck System




  MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR (Second Half of Season)


Winner: Computer Adjusted Line

  The computer adjusted line (236.127) wins this category for the 4th year in a row
with a number similar to what it had last year. Dokter's Entropy System did very well,
finishing only 1.5 points back. The only noncomposite system in the top 7.


2012 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2011 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line    (record 208.618)
2008 Winner:  Born Power Index
2007 Winner:  Atomic Football
2006 Winner:  Vegas Line
2005 Winner:  Vegas Line
2004 Winner:  Ashby Accuratings
2003 Winner:  Vegas Line
2002 Winner:  Vegas Line
2001 Winner:  Vegas Line
2000 Winner:  Vegas Line




  BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM  

Winner: System Average


  To come up with the best overall predictive system I give each system
points for how well they do in all of the above categories.  I then sum up
the points and the system with the highest total is dubbed predictive system
of the year.  So this award goes to the system that is the most well rounded
One flaw can totally take a system out of the running.

 This season I am skipping over the updated line, and the computer adjusted line
and giving the best overall predictive system to the average prediction across
the systems.  Purely by the numbers the computer adusted line was best and the line
second best, for both the full season and second half.  Laz Index, Sagarin, Massey,
and the system median were tightly clumped behind for the full season data.  For the
second half system average, Payne, and PerformanZ were high.  But if you are were
looking for a good system across the board across the season in 2012, taking the average
of the available system predictions would have been the best way to go.


2012 Winner:  System Average
2011 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2010 Winner:  Catherwood Ratings
2009 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2008 Winenr:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Harmon Forecast
2006 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2004 Winner:  Ken Ashby AccuRatings
2003 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2002 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2001 Winner:  Kenneth Massey (non-BCS)
2000 Winner:  ARGH Power Ratings