Welcome to the 11th annual NCAA PT Awards.
The purpose of these awards is to help raise the publicity for those systems that have been
superior in various qualities of interest.  Most awards will be based entirely on the numbers
I've monitored with my prediction tracker web pages. For the 2011  season I followed the
weekly performance of 68 computer rating  systems. This is the same number of last year although
the systems are not entirely the same.



  MOST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Entire Season)

Winner: Covers.com
Winner: Tempo Free Gridiron.com


  This year I collected predictions on 715 games involving two 1A teams. (I
don't care what they are now, I am still going to call them 1A.)  This year
we had a tie for predicting the most correct game winners. Covers.com and
Tempo Free Gridiron both went 528-187,or 73.846%.  This is down about 3 percent
from last year's winner, or about 16.6 wins.  So not a great winning number
although last year was one of the better ones.  But even still, the winner
is generally around 75-76%.  From my records, only 2005 had a lower winning percentage.
 This year only seven systems, counting the opening line and the system average
got more games correct than the Vegas line.


2011 Winner: Covers.com, Tempo Free Gridiron
2010 Winner: Dokter Entropy
2009 Winner: Pigskin Index
2008 Winner: System Average, System Median
2007 Winner: StatFox
2006 Winner: Thompson SPRS, system average, Sagarin predictive, & Sagarin overall
2005 Winner: Pigskin Index
2004 Winner: Jeff Sagarin's Overall Rating
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour & Jeff Sagarin's Overall Rating
2002 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings (record 76.48%)
2001 Winner: Massey Ratings
2000 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
1999 Winner: Vegas line




  SMALLEST DEVIATION FROM ACTUAL GAME SCORES (Entire Season)

Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line

  Deviation from the game score is the difference between the game prediction
and the actual result.  A value of zero would mean the score difference is predicted
exactly.  One property of a good system would be to minimize the system's average
game deviation.
  The Computer Adjusted Line had the smallest absolute error for the 3rd year in a row.
The computer adjusted line works similarly to the way the sportsbooks adjust line.  It
starts off equal to the line but fractions are added or taken away from the line depending
on what proportion of the computer systems are on one side of the line.  Where one side
means being at least 1.5 points away from the line.  I think the fact that this 'system'
is beating the line in this category is showing that the computers taken as a whole, can
add useful information.
 The winning mark this year was 12.0133. Also just like last year the updated line was
second and the opening line was 3rd, and the system average and system median were 4th
and 5th. You have to look all the way down to 6th place to find the first independent ratings
system.  That was Pigskin Index, which was a little more than a quarter point behind the leader.


2011 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line (record 11.26)
2008 Winner: Vegas Line
2007 Winner: Vegas Line
2006 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner: Vegas Line
2004 Winner: Vegas Line
2003 Winner: Vegas Line
2002 Winner: Vegas Line
2001 Winner: Vegas Line
2000 Winner: Vegas Line
1999 Winner: Vegas Line




  SMALLEST AVERAGE GAME BIAS (Entire Season)

Winner: Pi-Rate Ratings


  Bias is a little different from deviation.  Deviation measures the
distance between a prediction and the actual result.  Bias combines
distance and location of the prediction.   Bias measures whether the
predictions are too high or too low.  So if a system has an
average bias of +0.25 that means that on average the system
gives 0.25 points too many to the home team.  But I want to add that
some people are making this out to be nothing  more than a measure of
how good a systems measures home field advantage.  But that is not the
whole story. The closer the bias is to zero the more accurate the system
is on average, regardless of home field advantage.
  Over the full season the biases were not that low this season.  The smallest
was The Pi-Rate Ratings with an average of -0.0388.  College Football by the
Numbers was actually a little bit lower but I had it for over a hundred fewer
games.  Only 9 systems had a value above zero, all the rest were negative.


2011 Winner: The Pi-Rate Ratings
2010 Winner: Sagarin Predictor
2009 Winner: CPA Retro Rankings
2008 Winner; Opening Line
2007 Winner: Thompson SPRS
2006 Winner: Congrove Computer Rankings
2005 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2004 Winner: CPA Rankings
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour
2002 Winner: Gupta Power Ratings
2001 Winner: Flyman
2000 Winner: ARGH Power Ratings
1999 Winner: Jeff Sagarin




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Entire Season)


Winner: Dunkel Index

  Beating the spread is not the number one goal for most computer
rating systems.  But it is something that the average person likes
to look at and probably the most popular subject that I get emails
about.  I know that looking at all the games is probably not the
most meaningful of measurements but it is what I have been reporting.


  This year about half of the rating systems did better than
50% against the spread.  The best this season was The Dunkel Index, 392-314,
(55.524%).  This is a pretty good winning mark.  It was .02 percentage points
ahead of the next closest competitor, Dave Congrove at collegefootballpoll.com.
I always find it fun to also look at who do poorly against the spread.  So in
that direction, Stephen Kerns was only 44.5%.  So as is often the case you could
have done better betting against the worst system that betting with the best system.


2011 Winner: Dunkel Index
2010 Winner: Catherwood Ratings
2009 Winner: Covers.com
2008 Winner: Stephen Kerns
2007 Winner: Nutshell Sports
2006 Winner: Harmon Forecast  (record 56.4%)
2005 Winner: Keeper's College Football Ratings
2004 Winner: Edward Kambour
2003 Winner: Edward Kambour
2002 Winner: Dunkel Index
2001 Winner: BMC Picks
2000 Winner: Dunkel Index
1999 Winner: Average across all systems



  MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR (Entire Season)

Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line

  This award is based on mean square error. Mean square error takes
into account both deviation and bias and is perhaps the most commonly
used measure of evaluating estimators.
  Perhaps the reign of the Vegas line has come to an end.  The Computer
Adjusted line takes this category for the second year in a row, with a
MSE of 226.512.  But the line was only a quarter point behind.  After that
the difference is pretty big.  Like with absolute error the leaders here
are the lines and composite variables.  So again you have to drop down
to #6 to find the top independent system, Ashby AccuRatings.


2011 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner: Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner: The Vegas Line  (record 206.152)
2008 Winner: The Vegas Line
2007 Winner: The Vegas Line
2006 Winner: The Vegas Line
2005 Winner: The Vegas Line
2004 Winner: The Vegas Line
2003 Winner: The Vegas Line
2002 Winner: The Vegas Line
2001 Winner: The Vegas Line
2000 Winner: The Vegas Line
1999 Winner: The Vegas Line



    ------------------------


  It is debatable how meaningful rating systems are in the early
parts of the season.  How can you rate the teams in the first
week of the season when no teams have played a game yet?  The BCS
waits until mid October before releasing it's first ranking
of teams.  Some systems choose to wait until around this time
before being made public. Looking at only the second half of the
season also gives an estimate of how well a system does based
only(or mostly) on data from the current year.



   MOST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Second Half of Season)

Winner: Tempo Free Gridiron.com


  The second half data started with week 9 and consisted of 380 games
between two division 1A teams.
Tempo-Free Gridiron had the best record over the second half, 281-99,73.947%.
This was a 4 game lead over Dunkel.  TFG also won the full season, so they
were consistently good across the season.  Even though the full season numbers
were lower, the second half numbers were better than the winner last year.
In all, five systems did better than the line.  TFG, Dunkel, Ashby, Laffaye, and Dwiggins.


2011 Winner:  Tempo Free Gridiron.
2010 Winner:  Brent Craig
2009 Winner:  Massey Ratings  (record 77.688%)
2008 Winner:  Nutshell Sports
2007 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2006 Winner:  Ed Bemiss
2005 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2004 Winner:  Jeff Sagain, Wesley Colley
2003 Winner:  Born Power Index & Edward Kambour
2002 Winner:  Born Power Index
2001 Winner:  Chris Montgomery
2000 Winner:  Geoff Freeze




  SMALLEST DEVIATION FROM ACTUAL GAME SCORES  (Second Half of Season)


Winner: Vegas Line

  The Vegas line had the smallest mean absolute error over the second half 12.2421.
Although this was over half a point better than last season's winner it is still a full
point off the all time record. This marks the  line's first win here since 2005.  Like with
the full season the top 5 are all composites, updated line, computer adjusted line, system
median, opening line, and system average.  The top independent rater was Bihl in 6th place.


2011 Winner:  Vegas Line
2010 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line (record 11.2917)
2008 Winner:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2006 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner:  Vegas Line
2004 Winner:  Ken Ashby AccuRatings
2003 Winner:  Vegas Line (opening)
2002 Winner:  Vegas Line
2001 Winner:  Vegas Line
2000 Winner:  Vegas Line




  SMALLEST AVERAGE GAME BIAS  (Second Half of Season)

Winner:  Stat Fox

  Interestingly all but one system had a negative bias over the second half.  Marsee was
the only one shooting high.  For the past two seasons the numbers leaned towards being
positive.  The smallest bias was Stat Fox, at -0.2313 points per game.
Bassett was a very close second place.


2011 Winner:  Stat Fox
2010 Winner:  Sonny Moore
2009 Winner:  Nutshell Girl
2008 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2007 Winner:  CPA Rankings
2006 Winner:  Vegas Line
2005 Winner:  Brent Moore
2004 Winner:  Least Squares Regression
2003 Winner:  Darrly Marsee
2002 Winner:  Massey BCS
2001 Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings
2000 Winner:  Darryl Marsee's Rankings




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD  (Second Half of Season)


Winner: Dunkel Index

   Another category where one system was consistently good for the entire season.  The Dunkel
Index wins against the spread for both full and second half with a second half record of
206-169, 54.933%   The numbers were rather average this year, averaging close to 50% and
nobody having a great season.  Betgrinders.com was on the way to winning but stopped reported
with too few games to compare to the final leaders.  On the low side, Stat Fox was only 44.35%.


2011 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2010 Winner:  Least squares regression
2009 Winner:  Sonny Moore
2008 Winner:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Nutshell Sports
2006 Winner:  Ed Bemiss
2005 Winner:  The Sports Report
2004 Winner:  StatFox          (record 58.94%)
2003 Winner:  Edward Kambour
2002 Winner:  The Sports Report
2001 Winner:  BMC Picks
2000 Winner:  The Buck System




  MOST ACCURATE PREDICTOR (Second Half of Season)


Winner: Computer Adjusted Line

  The computer adjusted line (234.164) wins this category for the third year in a row
with a number a little bit better than last year but around 25 points behind a record.
NationalSportsRankings popped in at #4, to be the only independent rater to be in the top 5.



2010 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2010 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2009 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line    (record 208.618)
2008 Winner:  Born Power Index
2007 Winner:  Atomic Football
2006 Winner:  Vegas Line
2005 Winner:  Vegas Line
2004 Winner:  Ashby Accuratings
2003 Winner:  Vegas Line
2002 Winner:  Vegas Line
2001 Winner:  Vegas Line
2000 Winner:  Vegas Line




  BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM  

Winner: Dunkel Index


  To come up with the best overall predictive system I give each system
points for how well they do in all of the above categories.  I then sum up
the points and the system with the highest total is dubbed predictive system
of the year.  So this award goes to the system that is the most well rounded
One flaw can totally take a system out of the running.

 This season the best overall predictive system was The Dunkel Index.  And it
really wasn't even that close.  According to my scoring system Dunkel led by a
wide margin.  The Vegas line was the closest.  You have to drop down to 7th place
to find the next independent system with Covers.com.  But I have Dunkel grading
out as number 1 in both the full season and second half. So a very strong season
by Dunkel.  Dunkel also was the best predictive system in 2005.



2011 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2010 Winner:  Catherwood Ratings
2009 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2008 Winenr:  StatFox
2007 Winner:  Harmon Forecast
2006 Winner:  Computer Adjusted Line
2005 Winner:  Dunkel Index
2004 Winner:  Ken Ashby AccuRatings
2003 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2002 Winner:  Ed Kambour
2001 Winner:  Kenneth Massey (non-BCS)
2000 Winner:  ARGH Power Ratings




     RETRODICTION AWARDS 

I will no longer be giving retro awards.