Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Season Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
2Eric Hollobaugh0.707320.5445511.0438-0.10860194.177002051456011092
3Mike Greenfield0.697560.5445510.9020-1.44340185.961002051436211092
4Bihl Rankings0.690320.5657910.69990.44190176.43200155107488666
5Sonny Moore0.689140.5135111.1158-0.92680193.5100026718483133126
6Line (updated)0.6853910.7135-0.39140178.8580026718384
7ARGH Power Ratings0.685260.5357111.0219-0.76290190.0730025117279120104
8Roger Johnson0.684930.5601910.9551-0.97370190.987002191506912195
9Dwiggins0.684620.5542211.20380.30930197.2210026017882138111
10TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
11Computer Adjusted Line0.681650.5952410.6966-0.39700178.31200267182855034
12Ed Bemiss0.680000.5578910.6620-0.74490182.358002001366410684
13Lee Burdorf0.674160.5426411.60480.20040211.5370026718087140118
14Line (opening)0.674160.4918910.8727-0.21720182.16100267180879194
15John Coffey0.673170.5049510.8166-0.32300187.6110020513867102100
16Pigskin Herald0.672930.5177911.3695-0.60640199.5790026617987131122
17Logistic Regression0.671230.5324111.7291-2.47790228.2060021914772115101
18CPA Retro Rankings0.670410.5019310.9536-0.02750191.8530026717988130129
19Beck Elo0.670410.5482611.0452-0.67370188.8730026717988142117
20Pythagorean Ratings0.670410.5173711.4344-1.36430206.8420026717988134125
21Hank Trexler0.666670.5000010.8652-0.67790185.2230026717889125125
22CPA Rankings0.666670.5251010.9995-0.02460187.9480026717889136123
23Sagarin0.666670.5697710.7854-0.11250183.9790026717889147111
24Deslock Rankings0.665180.5162811.9157-0.94660215.8560022414975111104
25Reistertown Index0.662920.4916711.3071-0.88760194.3230026717790118122
26Steven Jens0.662920.5375511.0963-1.06020189.9930026717790136117
27Sport Trends0.659180.5000011.6221-1.38010213.0070026717691129129
28Sagarin Elo0.659180.5444011.0281-0.11830191.4130026717691141118
29Jeff Imes0.659180.5675711.37510.96980203.3480026717691147112
30Sourjax0.657530.5094311.18040.57140196.6430021914475108104
31Upset Report0.657370.4895411.4382-2.43920208.4230025116586117122
32Brian Gabrielle0.656490.5423710.89120.26950184.8350026217290128108
33Sports Report Elo0.656250.5483911.9478-1.61560227.0230025616888136112
34The Sports Report0.656250.5241912.3973-1.57610236.4940025616888130118
35System Median0.655430.5607810.8281-0.36570182.4750026717592143112
36Least Squares0.655430.5232611.7110-1.52690209.2330026717592135123
37PerformanZ Ratings0.654140.5348811.2020-1.39970193.5690026617492138120
38Sagarin Predictive0.651690.5852710.7894-0.11970183.6860026717493151107
39System Average0.651690.5637110.7819-0.43180180.9940026717493146113
40Kambour Rating0.651690.5405410.8506-0.50390183.4020026717493140119
41Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.647940.5039111.0881-0.89690190.9630026717394129127
42NutShell Retro0.645420.5020411.1854-0.76410194.7500025116289123122
43Michael Robert Ratings0.642550.5087011.11920.16680193.4300023515184117113
44Game Time Decision0.641670.5486711.0752-0.45800182.1850012077436251
45NutShell Sports0.640450.5135111.12580.04860192.4550026717196133126
46Stat Fox0.640450.5020611.21740.35630192.7490026717196122121
47Viacheslav0.638890.4890511.01490.57120187.5510014492526770
48What If Sports0.636720.4879011.97080.31970221.6880025616393121127
49JFM Power Ratings0.636700.5559811.01380.05710186.9980026717097144115
50Pigskin Index0.636700.5400811.00770.28150188.5160026717097128109
51Scoring Effeciency0.635340.5000011.3108-0.23240199.1390026616997129129
52Jeff Self0.635000.5329911.3050-0.46960206.470002001277310592
53Stephen Kerns0.632960.5096511.9218-0.60780225.1640026716998132127
54Ashby AccuRatings0.625470.4917411.00400.37540186.05100267167100119123
55Dokter Entropy0.617980.4787611.07820.20620191.38700267165102124135
56LS - w/ team HFA0.614230.5348812.2272-1.47210243.73700267164103138120
57Least Abs. Val Reg0.610490.5215712.2046-1.65480227.98500267163104133122
58Sports Report Pred0.609380.4817814.7464-2.14390369.30500256156100119128
59Dunkel Index0.603000.5387611.34520.26120194.29300267161106139119
60Grid Iron Gold0.600810.4786312.0141-1.52170227.7820024814999112122
61Tom Benson0.599250.4845011.6842-0.35010204.29300267160107125133
62TSR Slots0.589840.4898814.7684-2.00540363.18000256151105121126
63Covers.com0.561800.4710411.9046-0.85640224.51700267150117122137