Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2009 Retrodiction Results

System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
LS - w/ team HFA0.771540.000009.9265-0.25510152.868002672066100
CPA Retro0.752810.0000010.42080.19520169.278002672016600
CPA Rankings0.730340.0000010.12130.19030157.412002671957200
Ed Kambour0.726590.0000010.10540.14280160.428002671947300
Sonny Moore0.726590.0000010.5758-0.09670183.387002671947300
Logistic Regression0.726590.0000011.0658-0.61160203.955002671947300
JFM Power Ratings0.722850.0000010.66940.52460186.623002671937400
NutShell Sports0.722850.0000010.50610.64250180.688002671937400
System Average0.722850.0000010.36800.34660170.429002671937400
Sagarin Elo0.719100.0000010.86240.72340188.533002671927500
System Median0.715360.0000010.36550.26110171.323002671917600
PerformanZ Ratings0.715360.0000010.5034-0.03040179.083002671917600
Beck Elo0.715360.0000010.78550.57660189.493002671917600
Ashby Accuratings0.711610.0000011.01870.60670184.366002671907700
Pythagorean Ratings0.711610.0000010.53380.61720183.042002671907700
Least Abs. Val Reg0.711610.0000010.4947-0.48070173.134002671907700
Least Squares0.707870.0000010.5131-0.48270173.418002671897800
Sagarin0.707870.0000010.57460.65180177.386002671897800
Scoring Effeciency0.707870.0000010.90520.61420196.113002671897800
Sagarin Predictive0.704120.0000010.51190.59460173.711002671887900
Stat Fox0.700370.0000010.82770.58050183.950002671878000
Covers.com0.700370.0000010.70420.73930186.286002671878000
Stephen Kerns0.696630.0000010.93750.61240178.308002671868100
Pigskin Index0.666670.0000010.74160.59930188.800002671788900
Roger Johnson0.655910.0000010.93310.25830198.0990093613200
Grid Iron Gold0.573030.0000012.9700-0.82770274.7050026715311400

Copyright © 2008 Todd Beck