Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2011 Retrodiction Results

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1PerformanZ Ratings0.765630.000009.3573-0.54250149.407002561966000
2Scoring Effeciency0.726560.000009.8775-0.26170164.862002561867000
3Stephen Kerns0.722660.000009.7680-0.26560155.195002561857100
4Sonny Moore0.722660.000009.8299-1.26560161.705002561857100
5Covers.com0.710940.000009.7500-0.26560167.762002561827400
6NutShell Sports0.699220.000009.8334-0.26560166.601002561797700
7Turnover adjusted least squares0.687500.0000010.1644-1.02560167.257002561768000
8Ed Bemiss0.683590.000009.8473-0.26560158.351002561758100
9Beck Elo0.679690.000009.7896-0.26560160.578002561748200
10Ashby Accuratings0.679690.000009.9141-0.26560161.312002561748200
11Stat Fox0.679690.000009.9766-0.26560160.312002561748200
12Least Squares0.726560.000009.7135-0.38560152.412002561867000
13Sagarin Predictive0.730470.000009.7343-0.17560152.976002561876900
14Ed Kambour0.765630.000009.3673-0.21700144.156002561966000
15Least Abs. Val Reg0.753910.000009.3386-0.26560158.637002561936300
16Sagarin0.753910.000009.6413-0.17560155.491002561936300
17Sagarin Elo0.753910.000009.8471-0.17560165.091002561936300
18LS - w/ team HFA0.750000.000009.13760.02070132.452002561926400
19JFM Power Ratings0.750000.000009.6546-0.34670157.379002561926400
20Logistic Regression0.746090.000009.9221-1.81130178.555002561916500
21System Average0.742190.000009.5368-0.35920151.740002561906600
22Pythagorean Ratings0.742190.000009.7101-0.26560152.235002561906600
23System Median0.734380.000009.5269-0.36230151.182002561886800
24Pigskin Index0.667970.000009.9063-0.26560163.742002561718500