Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2008 Retrodiction Results

System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
Jeff Self0.752810.0000010.33360.50930176.014002672016600
System Average0.704120.000009.73660.23820151.122002671887900
PerformanZ Ratings0.704120.000009.84370.04400153.596002671887900
Stephen Kerns0.704120.0000010.26160.31530168.158002671887900
Least Squares0.700370.000009.7815-0.44890150.725002671878000
Roger Johnson0.700370.000009.88630.41210156.867002671878000
Scoring Effeciency0.700370.0000010.31190.62360168.357002671878000
Sonny Moore0.696630.000009.9251-0.15780159.375002671868100
Pythagorean Ratings0.696630.0000010.12380.60150161.503002671868100
Nutsehll Retro0.692880.000009.98140.60450156.858002671858200
Pigskin Index0.692880.0000010.10860.55060161.081002671858200
Ashby Accuratings0.689140.0000010.13860.57300162.055002671848300
Sagarin Predictive0.704120.000009.72680.09550151.578002671887900
System Median0.704120.000009.71560.22470151.077002671887900
LS - w/ team HFA0.749060.000009.0324-0.22940132.042002672006700
Least Abs. Val Reg0.741570.000009.4282-0.53150163.484002671986900
Logistic Regression0.734080.0000010.0814-0.98520169.805002671967100
CPA Retro0.730340.000009.5406-0.05760146.370002671957200
CPA Rankings0.726590.000009.3266-0.11290137.732002671947300
JFM Power Ratings0.726590.0000010.07880.45590160.075002671947300
Covers.com0.726590.0000010.15690.64080165.714002671947300
Sagarin0.715360.000009.77410.13400154.331002671917600
Sagarin Elo0.715360.0000010.01070.17020162.362002671917600
NutShell Sports0.715360.0000010.03600.52920159.366002671917600
Beck Elo0.715360.0000010.21220.53990163.499002671917600
Stat Fox0.662920.0000010.13480.50190157.992002671779000