Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2010 Season Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Dokter Entropy0.760450.4600012.82530.4164257.753718546172322378
2Computer Adjusted Line0.758380.4857112.41060.2877244.423716543173119126
3Dunkel Index0.754870.4943012.84830.2184264.611718542176347355
4Line (updated)0.7534812.42200.4150245.100718541177
5Massey Ratings0.750700.4921812.9918-0.1753268.537718539179346357
6Fort Heresy Model0.747470.5207313.34280.0253289.087396296100201185
7System Average0.745130.4757812.7673-0.0624255.497718535183334368
8System Median0.743730.4871112.7773-0.0695255.672718534184340358
9Sagarin Predictive0.743730.4950213.07690.0010268.635718534184348355
10Hank Trexler0.742660.5073715.2392-0.0252391.754715531184344334
11NationalSportsRankings0.742340.5014312.8706-0.1577260.193718533185351349
12Tempo Free Gridiron0.742340.4682413.7897-1.5919301.483718533185317360
13Catherwood Ratings0.741980.5335312.82570.6416262.301717532185358313
14Edward Kambour0.740950.4921813.26900.0757277.326718532186346357
15Line (opening)0.740220.5051212.56150.1187252.069716530186296290
16Laz Index0.739550.4800613.0877-0.5947265.044718531187337365
17Tom Benson0.738100.4936713.5186-7.3957283.7968462223940
18CPA Rankings0.736770.5085513.00660.0177265.661718529189357345
19Stephen Kerns0.736770.5049913.0266-0.1901262.428718529189354347
20Stat Fox0.735380.5098312.83151.0100261.767718528190337324
21Massey Consensus0.733980.4751113.19400.2370270.907718527191334369
22Ashby AccuRatings0.732590.4778113.0794-0.2296269.735718526192323353
23Atomic Football0.732590.4950212.78600.2589259.991718526192348355
24Brent Craig0.732220.5162213.4310-0.2510282.981717525192350328
25Billingsley+0.731200.4529913.23970.0029274.557718525193318384
26Howell0.731200.4868013.3057-0.4463278.049718525193332350
27Pigskin Index0.729810.4902512.8398-0.2962258.710718524194327340
28Schmidt Comp. Ratings0.729810.4344713.5202-0.4301282.492718524194305397
29ARGH Power Ratings0.728920.4703913.20970.4590269.397664484180286322
30Sagarin0.728410.4651513.28740.0761276.496718523195327376
31Lee Burdorf0.728410.4657113.2511-0.1600277.597718523195326374
32Regression-Based Analys0.728410.4896113.46941.2187285.937718523195330344
33Bassett Model0.727720.4857613.42481.2084280.244606441165290307
34DP Dwiggins0.727090.4755113.4067-3.2487273.865502365137233257
35Moore Power Ratings0.727020.5000012.9458-0.2447266.675718522196351351
36Born Power Index0.727020.5064013.0030-0.1690264.115718522196356347
37Sportrends0.726630.4924713.3421-0.4214287.264706513193327337
38Covers.com0.726630.4816813.7490-0.9326294.563567412155263283
39CF By the Numbers0.726120.5044813.11800.6489269.098712517195338332
40NutShell Combo0.725630.4629613.3721-0.3890276.511718521197325377
41NutShell Sports0.725630.4992913.3127-0.2543277.145718521197351352
42Keeper0.725630.5064013.65161.2470289.373718521197356347
43Beck Elo0.724230.4409713.5768-0.1487284.647718520198310393
44Linear Regression0.721930.5597813.13730.2985275.692374270104206162
45PerformanZ Ratings0.721450.5042713.61040.0840291.185718518200354348
46Dave Congrove0.721060.4957313.1921-0.3063275.925717517200348354
47Payne Power Ratings0.721060.4821713.3321-0.3759280.833717517200338363
48Super List0.720060.4957314.08160.5471304.666718517201348354
49Billingsley0.718660.4950213.6055-0.1945289.522718516202348355
50Bihl System0.718500.5054313.32580.8312276.692373268105186182
51Laffaye XWP0.716880.4906513.8715-0.9781305.159717514203341354
52BG Sports0.716580.5224713.33031.6273280.379374268106186170
53Brent Craig 20.715910.5019913.96770.5210309.305528378150252250
54Marsee0.714480.4595013.84121.5125296.373718513205312367
55Thompson SPRS20.713650.4675913.44280.4083286.027447319128202230
56TW Rankings0.713420.5086614.0236-1.5578311.868663473190323312
57Austin Sports0.708650.4980813.48560.6090282.490532377155260262
58Warren Claassen0.706130.4985813.6229-0.4837290.384718507211350352
59CPA Retro0.699160.4936014.17850.0339313.086718502216347356
60Sagarin Elo0.694990.4679914.08830.1753305.243718499219329374
61Thompson SPRS0.691280.4689714.15170.0852318.567447309138204231
62Nutshell Girl0.688020.4509214.4449-0.7402327.943718494224317386
63Anderson/Hester *0.676470.4823814.06650.2924308.021374253121178191
64Least Squares w/ HFA0.676470.5094915.7607-0.0259389.982374253121188181
65Wolfe *0.673800.4782614.51000.5497320.024374252122176192
66Massey *0.671120.4823814.44570.3929317.676374251123178191
67Martien Maas0.671120.5231617.01040.5056431.875374251123192175
68Logistic Regression0.663100.4986416.8715-2.7261432.490374248126184185

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases