Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2010 Retrodiction Results
Through
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | Ashby AccuRatings | 0.81111 | 0.00000 | 9.9333 | 0.7556 | 170.941 | 180 | 146 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Beck Elo | 0.93889 | 0.00000 | 7.2385 | -0.5230 | 104.428 | 180 | 169 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Born Power Index | 0.83889 | 0.00000 | 8.1017 | 1.0661 | 108.572 | 180 | 151 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Covers.com | 0.86667 | 0.00000 | 9.3258 | 0.9197 | 162.089 | 180 | 156 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | DP Dwiggins | 0.86111 | 0.00000 | 8.4653 | -3.1108 | 118.154 | 180 | 155 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Edward Kambour | 0.85000 | 0.00000 | 7.7556 | 0.2651 | 100.780 | 180 | 153 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Laz Index | 0.84444 | 0.00000 | 8.9228 | 0.0041 | 136.239 | 180 | 152 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Massey Concensus Rank | 0.93889 | 0.00000 | 8.3462 | 1.0293 | 126.470 | 180 | 169 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | NationalSportsRankings | 0.81667 | 0.00000 | 8.7316 | 0.1955 | 135.696 | 180 | 147 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | NutShell Combo | 0.85556 | 0.00000 | 9.8983 | 1.0034 | 177.002 | 180 | 154 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Nutshell Girl | 0.89444 | 0.00000 | 11.4693 | -1.0651 | 233.316 | 180 | 161 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | NutShell Sports | 0.77778 | 0.00000 | 12.1561 | 2.8494 | 260.380 | 180 | 140 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.91111 | 0.00000 | 6.3483 | -0.0133 | 70.910 | 180 | 164 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.85000 | 0.00000 | 9.0991 | -0.4931 | 134.235 | 180 | 153 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Pigskin Index | 0.86111 | 0.00000 | 8.4944 | 0.7167 | 126.203 | 180 | 155 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Sagarin | 0.92222 | 0.00000 | 8.4360 | 0.3002 | 127.337 | 180 | 166 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Sagarin Elo | 0.95000 | 0.00000 | 9.6536 | 0.8747 | 163.660 | 180 | 171 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Sagarin Predictive | 0.85000 | 0.00000 | 8.4108 | -0.1642 | 113.624 | 180 | 153 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Schmidt Comp. Ratings | 0.89266 | 0.00000 | 8.4863 | -0.8907 | 134.910 | 177 | 158 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Sonny Moore | 0.81667 | 0.00000 | 8.8931 | 0.7704 | 141.427 | 180 | 147 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Stat Fox | 0.79444 | 0.00000 | 9.5722 | 0.9611 | 152.756 | 180 | 143 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | Stortrends | 0.75843 | 0.00000 | 10.6067 | -0.9663 | 191.576 | 178 | 135 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | SuperList | 0.91667 | 0.00000 | 10.3323 | 2.3872 | 174.264 | 180 | 165 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | System Average | 0.88889 | 0.00000 | 7.9951 | 0.1266 | 114.604 | 180 | 160 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | system Median | 0.87222 | 0.00000 | 7.9170 | 0.0246 | 113.815 | 180 | 157 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | Warren Claassen | 0.96667 | 0.00000 | 8.9121 | 1.1987 | 132.127 | 180 | 174 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases