ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2009 Last Week

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Massey *	0.79412	0.81818	9.5426	3.5397	156.537	34	27	7	27	6
2	Hank Trexler	0.67647	0.53125	12.9412	4.2353	274.943	34	23	11	17	15
3	CPA Retro	0.64706	0.60606	12.2321	4.9915	235.369	34	22	12	20	13
4	Edward Kambour	0.64706	0.60606	12.4276	4.6224	245.812	34	22	12	20	13
5	PerformanZ Ratings	0.64706	0.57576	13.3356	5.4809	271.902	34	22	12	19	14
6	ARGH Power Ratings	0.61765	0.58065	12.6691	5.1985	258.005	34	21	13	18	13
7	Nutshell Girl	0.61765	0.60606	11.8676	3.6406	240.044	34	21	13	20	13
8	Tom Benson	0.60606	0.65625	13.3982	5.6012	273.036	33	20	13	21	11
9	NutShell Combo	0.58824	0.63636	12.7156	4.5479	274.975	34	20	14	21	12
10	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.58824	0.45455	15.3100	7.9982	387.760	34	20	14	15	18
11	Marsee	0.57576	0.51515	13.6364	4.4848	306.481	33	19	14	17	16
12	Sagarin Predictive	0.55882	0.60606	13.0376	5.3565	272.720	34	19	15	20	13
13	System Average	0.55882	0.51515	12.8350	5.0597	269.424	34	19	15	17	16
14	Dave Congrove	0.55882	0.60606	12.8162	5.0744	282.453	34	19	15	20	13
15	Billingsley	0.55882	0.69697	12.5265	4.0265	257.252	34	19	15	23	10
16	Howell	0.55882	0.62500	12.3094	4.5153	248.448	34	19	15	20	12
17	Moore Power Ratings	0.52941	0.57576	13.5482	5.3788	304.799	34	18	16	19	14
18	Pigskin Index	0.52941	0.53125	13.5882	4.5882	301.028	34	18	16	17	15
19	NationalSportsRankings	0.52941	0.51515	13.6171	5.2653	304.380	34	18	16	17	16
20	NutShell Sports	0.52941	0.51515	14.0056	5.4250	321.499	34	18	16	17	16
21	Lee Burdorf	0.52941	0.51515	14.2941	4.7824	335.417	34	18	16	17	16
22	Keeper	0.52941	0.36364	14.3859	6.0547	362.625	34	18	16	12	21
23	Born Power Index	0.52941	0.38710	14.3915	5.5562	342.801	34	18	16	12	19
24	Beck Elo	0.52941	0.54545	13.4900	4.6135	279.185	34	18	16	18	15
25	Atomic Football	0.52941	0.48485	13.1229	5.4918	279.812	34	18	16	16	17
26	Line (opening)	0.52941	0.53125	13.1176	5.6471	292.150	34	18	16	17	15
27	Billingsley+	0.52941	0.66667	12.7100	6.1471	280.866	34	18	16	22	11
28	Covers.com	0.52941	0.60606	12.7150	3.4879	266.437	34	18	16	20	13
29	System Median	0.52941	0.50000	12.8079	5.0891	266.100	34	18	16	16	16
30	Anderson/Hester *	0.52941	0.60606	12.8485	4.2038	270.931	34	18	16	20	13
31	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.52941	0.57576	12.9650	4.4297	260.545	34	18	16	19	14
32	Warren Claassen	0.52941	0.48485	12.9771	4.8035	270.412	34	18	16	16	17
33	Frank Alder	0.52941	0.54545	13.1153	4.6588	275.601	34	18	16	18	15
34	Stephen Kerns	0.50000	0.57576	14.6212	7.2194	338.948	34	17	17	19	14
35	Sportrends	0.50000	0.54839	14.0735	4.3676	319.843	34	17	17	17	14
36	Stat Fox	0.50000	0.48276	14.0597	6.0597	321.118	34	17	17	14	15
37	Linear Regression	0.50000	0.51515	14.0194	5.7500	299.180	34	17	17	17	16
38	CPA Rankings	0.50000	0.50000	13.6641	5.5806	293.364	34	17	17	16	16
39	CF By the Numbers	0.50000	0.50000	13.5000	5.1471	279.721	34	17	17	15	15
40	Bihl System	0.50000	0.51515	13.3994	5.3406	277.549	34	17	17	17	16
41	Line (updated)	0.50000		13.1176	6.2941	290.717	34	17	17
42	Payne Power Ratings	0.50000	0.54545	13.1091	4.8526	271.686	34	17	17	18	15
43	Computer Adjusted Line	0.50000	0.64286	13.0441	6.1029	287.059	34	17	17	9	5
44	Sagarin Elo	0.50000	0.57576	12.9212	5.0300	263.856	34	17	17	19	14
45	Super List	0.47059	0.51515	13.8665	6.6818	306.290	34	16	18	17	16
46	Laz Index	0.47059	0.45455	13.4824	4.7929	289.480	34	16	18	15	18
47	Dokter Entropy	0.47059	0.54545	13.2968	4.9015	276.828	34	16	18	18	15
48	Massey Consensus	0.47059	0.57576	13.1544	5.1021	280.704	34	16	18	19	14
49	Wolfe *	0.47059	0.57576	13.0665	5.1682	274.854	34	16	18	19	14
50	Martien Maas	0.47059	0.57576	12.9306	4.4629	271.795	34	16	18	19	14
51	Dunkel Index	0.44118	0.33333	14.6071	6.1347	348.705	34	15	19	11	22
52	Bassett Model	0.44118	0.51515	14.1688	6.0806	307.953	34	15	19	17	16
53	Harmon Forcast	0.44118	0.45161	13.9412	5.3529	300.157	34	15	19	14	17
54	Ashby AccuRatings	0.44118	0.51613	13.4118	5.6471	300.591	34	15	19	16	15
55	Sagarin	0.44118	0.54545	13.0294	5.1782	262.816	34	15	19	18	15
56	Logistic Regression	0.44118	0.66667	12.5526	2.7774	248.845	34	15	19	22	11
57	Catherwood Ratings	0.41176	0.48387	14.5882	5.5882	336.670	34	14	20	15	16
58	Colley Rankings *	0.38235	0.57576	13.0550	4.6485	273.241	34	13	21	19	14


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases