ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2010 Last Week

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	NationalSportsRankings	0.71429	0.67647	11.9823	-2.6286	231.383	35	25	10	23	11
2	System Median	0.65714	0.67647	13.1840	-3.0143	262.723	35	23	12	23	11
3	NutShell Combo	0.60000	0.67647	13.1703	-3.1063	250.220	35	21	14	23	11
4	Bihl System	0.65714	0.64706	13.3703	-3.2286	266.481	35	23	12	22	12
5	Linear Regression	0.65714	0.64706	12.9671	-2.9174	258.118	35	23	12	22	12
6	Born Power Index	0.62857	0.61765	11.8826	-2.3911	228.543	35	22	13	21	13
7	CPA Rankings	0.62857	0.61765	13.1009	-2.4734	258.624	35	22	13	21	13
8	NutShell Sports	0.57143	0.61765	12.0786	-1.3831	217.640	35	20	15	21	13
9	Brent Craig 2	0.68571	0.61765	12.6000	-2.2000	244.143	35	24	11	21	13
10	System Average	0.60000	0.61765	13.3197	-2.8540	267.091	35	21	14	21	13
11	BG Sports	0.62857	0.60606	13.1286	3.7571	277.864	35	22	13	20	13
12	Marsee	0.62857	0.60606	13.2857	-3.1143	269.629	35	22	13	20	13
13	Sagarin	0.60000	0.58824	13.8169	-3.1580	286.390	35	21	14	20	14
14	Howell	0.65714	0.58824	13.6143	-2.2714	291.450	35	23	12	20	14
15	Austin Sports	0.62857	0.58824	13.2674	-2.9817	261.529	35	22	13	20	14
16	Lee Burdorf	0.74286	0.58824	11.8689	-2.7369	221.304	35	26	9	20	14
17	Sagarin Predictive	0.65714	0.58824	13.1383	-3.2137	263.636	35	23	12	20	14
18	Edward Kambour	0.65714	0.58824	13.3020	-3.2289	275.809	35	23	12	20	14
19	Catherwood Ratings	0.68571	0.58824	13.0857	-2.5143	265.486	35	24	11	20	14
20	Stat Fox	0.68571	0.58824	12.1711	-2.5700	230.139	35	24	11	20	14
21	Payne Power Ratings	0.62857	0.57576	13.8534	-3.2637	293.564	35	22	13	19	14
22	Massey Ratings	0.54286	0.55882	13.5434	-2.8331	270.046	35	19	16	19	15
23	Dunkel Index	0.68571	0.55882	15.0151	-1.1317	397.290	35	24	11	19	15
24	Massey Consensus	0.60000	0.55882	13.9729	-3.2980	300.304	35	21	14	19	15
25	Laz Index	0.62857	0.55882	13.4929	-3.5963	280.209	35	22	13	19	15
26	Keeper	0.68571	0.55882	12.9354	1.3554	270.697	35	24	11	19	15
27	ARGH Power Ratings	0.68571	0.57576	13.4000	-2.7143	284.075	35	24	11	19	14
28	CF By the Numbers	0.57143	0.54545	13.3429	-1.5143	271.057	35	20	15	18	15
29	Covers.com	0.65714	0.54545	14.0100	-4.6911	313.705	35	23	12	18	15
30	Sagarin Elo	0.57143	0.52941	14.9189	-2.9029	328.797	35	20	15	18	16
31	Warren Claassen	0.65714	0.52941	14.0697	-3.2783	307.483	35	23	12	18	16
32	Dave Congrove	0.60000	0.52941	13.7889	-2.6626	279.887	35	21	14	18	16
33	Massey *	0.57143	0.52941	14.9674	-2.5463	328.660	35	20	15	18	16
34	PerformanZ Ratings	0.60000	0.52941	13.3783	-2.9697	280.594	35	21	14	18	16
35	Laffaye XWP	0.71429	0.54545	13.6769	-4.2711	293.903	35	25	10	18	15
36	Wolfe *	0.54286	0.52941	14.6777	-2.8269	323.879	35	19	16	18	16
37	Pigskin Index	0.68571	0.52941	12.8000	-3.7126	265.026	35	24	11	18	16
38	Super List	0.51429	0.52941	14.2900	-1.1643	298.119	35	18	17	18	16
39	Brent Craig	0.57143	0.51515	13.5714	-3.8857	311.214	35	20	15	17	16
40	Anderson/Hester *	0.57143	0.50000	14.6220	-3.6763	331.878	35	20	15	17	17
41	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.65714	0.50000	14.2331	-0.0274	301.535	35	23	12	17	17
42	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.62857	0.51515	13.9714	-4.8286	298.543	35	22	13	17	16
43	Dokter Entropy	0.62857	0.51515	14.0666	-3.2837	291.095	35	22	13	17	16
44	Martien Maas	0.57143	0.50000	16.4829	-0.0771	394.255	35	20	15	17	17
45	Stephen Kerns	0.62857	0.47059	13.3200	-2.4457	275.575	35	22	13	16	18
46	Billingsley	0.62857	0.47059	14.2286	-3.6857	304.732	35	22	13	16	18
47	Moore Power Ratings	0.68571	0.47059	12.8737	-3.0869	255.441	35	24	11	16	18
48	Hank Trexler	0.60000	0.48485	13.8857	-4.2286	301.429	35	21	14	16	17
49	Logistic Regression	0.54286	0.44118	15.2091	-6.3983	337.549	35	19	16	15	19
50	Sportrends	0.60000	0.50000	14.0000	-3.6571	293.357	35	21	14	15	15
51	Billingsley+	0.51429	0.44118	13.5906	-3.1797	266.308	35	18	17	15	19
52	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.57143	0.44118	14.1000	-3.9263	292.560	35	20	15	15	19
53	Regression-Based Analys	0.60000	0.46875	14.2571	-1.7429	309.171	35	21	14	15	17
54	Nutshell Girl	0.51429	0.44118	14.6617	-4.8326	314.933	35	18	17	15	19
55	CPA Retro	0.54286	0.41176	15.1217	-4.1486	354.419	35	19	16	14	20
56	Atomic Football	0.62857	0.41176	14.2446	-3.0023	302.732	35	22	13	14	20
57	Ashby AccuRatings	0.57143	0.43750	14.1143	-3.3143	293.486	35	20	15	14	18
58	Beck Elo	0.57143	0.41176	13.7823	-4.3989	281.370	35	20	15	14	20
59	Bassett Model	0.61905	0.65000	13.8262	-2.1414	307.923	21	13	8	13	7
60	Line (opening)	0.54286	0.40000	14.0571	-2.2000	296.886	35	19	16	12	18
61	Computer Adjusted Line	0.62857	0.45455	13.5286	-2.3286	286.921	35	22	13	5	6
62	Line (updated)	0.60000		13.4571	-2.2000	287.471	35	21	14


* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases